Fantasy
11/5/22
6 min read
Last Minute DraftKings Advice: Spend Big on the NFC North in Week 9
After a few weeks off to focus on some other important things, I’m back in the game! This season has been interesting to say the least. Chalk is smashing every week, and it’s driving us GPP players insane. But, as I have talked about before, you don’t need to avoid all the chalk to win; you can eat some and get different elsewhere. Don’t be afraid to take the players you truly believe are going to help you maximize your upside, no matter how chalky. It looks like we have a ton of value backs combined with a big group of stud receivers. Adjust your lineup construction strategy accordingly.
Contrary to most DFS pros, I don’t usually run 150 lineups or use an optimizer. I hand-build one or two of my favorite lineups using my own projections and enter them into multiple tournaments. I typically play all the Milly Makers, a few single-entry contests, and I’ll dabble in the Satellites & Qualifiers.
Having a strategy is very important when you’re playing DFS, especially since you’ll be going up against some of the best players in the country. After reading this, you can check out my article “Anatomy of Winning a GPP” to see my strategy for my Milly Maker lineup in Week 3 of last year.
Let’s roll.
Values
Travis Etienne, RB, $6,300 – Etienne has officially taken off, and there is no stopping him at this point. Last week in London, he was given 27 touches, the most he’s received all season. Sure, he’s going to be chalk, but Etienne might be the best point-per-dollar player on the slate by the time it’s all said and done. While the Raiders' defense is only giving up 4.13 YPC, Etienne isn’t a traditional running back. He's more of a receiving threat with the ability to take any run to the house. This game has tons of shootout potential with an over/under of 48. You need to have him in your lineup until his price gets driven up to the $8K range, which could very well be next week against the Chiefs.
Joshua Palmer, WR, $5,100 – I am so excited for Palmer to potentially break out against the lowly Falcons' secondary. Their defense has been bad, and their top corner, A.J. Terrell, has also been ruled out. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are both out for the Chargers, so Palmer should be given all the opportunity he can handle. $5,100 for a WR1 against one of the worst secondaries in football? Seems like a no-brainer to me. Consider pairing him up with Justin Herbert at $7,200 as this game has shootout potential in a dome.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, $5,900 – My hometown Lions are officially in tank mode. Meanwhile Rodgers and the Packers are on a four-game losing streak and have looked horrible. Teams have come to Detroit and averaged 36 points per contest here. Let that sink in for a second. Green Bay is desperate for a win, and I believe Rodgers will use this game as momentum heading into the second half of the season. You might be envisioning how bad the Packers have been in recent weeks, but don’t worry. The Lions are second to last in the league in sacks at only 11 all year. Rodgers plays way better when he has time to hit his receivers, and he’ll have all the time in the world tomorrow. Expect a huge output from him in this game. Bottom line: Play quarterbacks against Detroit.
Other value options to consider:
- Deon Jackson, RB, $5,200
- Marcus Mariota, QB, $5,300
- Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, $6,200
Studs
Justin Jefferson, WR, $8,600 – Jefferson hasn’t scored in his last four contests. However, in those same four contests, he’s averaging 126.5 yards. The boom is coming, and everything is lining up for J-Jeff to do the Griddy more than once or twice tomorrow. The Commanders are another defense that has underperformed all season. Through eight games they’ve allowed 14 passing TDs and only two INTs – both stats are at or near the bottom of the league. There’s also a revenge game narrative out here with Kirk “YOU LIKE THAT” Cousins going back to Washington. I think spending up a WR is the move tomorrow, and Jefferson has a great chance to just go absolutely bonkers in this matchup. We’ve seen the ridiculous numbers he has put up in games before, and I think we're going to see it again.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, $7,900 – Welcome back to fantasy relevancy, D-Hop. This one is pretty cut and dry; if we are spending up at WR, we have to play the process of elimination game with all of these guys. Hopkins is in a spot where not only are they playing at home in a dome, but they’re facing the Seahawks, who have been in a few shootouts themselves this season. Even if it isn’t a shootout, Hopkins will still probably see 12+ targets like he has in both games he’s played this season. With the amount of volume he is getting, he is also making the most of it, going over 100+ yards in both contests and scoring a TD in one of them. His price is decently respectable compared to the other Studs in this range, so Nuk gots the nod this week.
Aaron Jones, RB, $7,400 and Austin Ekeler, RB, $8,800 – If you are spending up at RB this week you have a couple of options. I’ll keep it short and sweet here: Aaron Jones could break the slate at his projected 12% ownership. He may come in a little bit higher, but I have a feeling that Jones might be in the Milly Maker lineup tomorrow. He’s sort of underpriced compared to his upside in this game. We talked about playing QBs against Detroit. Maybe I should have just said play everyone against Detroit. I would consider Ekeler here, but that extra $1,500 in savings is going to be huge for us tomorrow. Jones’ upside is right up there with Ekeler, especially in this matchup, but both are going to get a ton of volume against bad defenses. Feel free to fire up either of these guys, or even in the same lineup if you really want to get different.
Punt Play of the Day
Evan Engram, TE, $3,300 – Lock and load Engram tomorrow.
