Fantasy
9/14/22
7 min read
Chargers-Chiefs DFS Thursday Night Showdown
Week 1 is over, and we have more information about how both of these teams are utilizing their talent. The Chiefs scored three straight drives, two of which went 75 yards and one for 86 yards. After halftime, they had three straight scoring drives and had a three-possession lead the entire second half. Their defense shut down the Arizona Cardinals for most of the game and pressured Kyler Murray on 43% of dropbacks.
The Chargers took on the Las Vegas Raiders and utilized secondary options to move the ball and score. Their three touchdowns went to DeAndre Carter, Gerald Everett and Zander Horvath. Nobody had more than 4 targets, leading to an underwhelming day for most of their weapons. The changes to the defensive line resulted in Derek Carr getting sacked 5 times, and they forced 3 interceptions.
Both of these teams look like top-end offenses and defenses on Sunday. But with how high-powered their offenses are, can they stop each other?
Chargers-Chiefs: Betting Information
Vegas Line: Chiefs -4
Over / Under: 54.5
Notable Injuries:
Chargers: CB J.C. Jackson (Out), WR Keenan Allen (Out)
Chiefs: K Harrison Butker (Out), CB Trent McDuffie (Out)
Chargers-Chiefs: Info You Need
Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
- Mike Hughes gave up more than 100 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns in the two games he played against the Chargers. He is no longer with this group.
- Justin Herbert was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks in Week 1 but wasn’t sacked and averaged 8.3 YPA.
- The Raiders mixed up the coverages well and only blitzed on 20% of dropbacks.
- The Chiefs ran a zone coverage on 78% of dropbacks in Week 1, and last season only played zone on 54% of dropbacks against Herbert.
- Last season, when Allen was not on the field, Mike Williams had a 24% target share, and Josh Palmer had an 18% target share.
- Palmer was split out wide more often when Allen left the game, and Carter had 72% of his snaps in the slot.
- Everett had two red zone targets.
- On 14 routes, was targeted four times.
- Austin Ekeler had 18 touches for 72 yards but could not get any work in the red zone.
- Ekeler and Joshua Kelley split the receiving work at the running back position. With Ekeler getting 13 routes to Kelley’s 10.
- Sony Michel was second on the team in carries and had a red zone carry.
- The Chiefs' defense held the Cardinals to 4.5 yards a play, ranking 6th in the NFL.
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense
- Patrick Mahomes was blitzed on 52.6% of dropbacks, ranking number 1 in the NFL.
- The Chargers only blitzed Carr on 16% of dropbacks.
- The Chiefs had 41% of their pass attempts against man coverage.
- The Chargers ran zone coverage on 81% of plays in Week 1.
- Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster were the two primary targets for Mahomes.
- Marquez Valdez-Scantling ran the most routes but had low targets per route run.
- Isiah Pacheco had 10 of his 12 carries come in the 4th quarter.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerrick McKinnon are the lead backs and split snap counts.
- McKinnon had more routes run, but Edwards-Helaire had more touches overall.
- Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa will get pressure, but without Jackson, this defense is incomplete and will shut down the Chiefs' offense completely.
2021 Data Provided by SIS
After four weeks of data for 2022, I will update this. For now, I will highlight the differences inside the Data to Know Section.
Offensive Statistics & Tendencies
| Offense | Chargers | Chiefs |
| YPA vs Zone | 8.3 | 7.8 |
| YPA vs Man | 7.1 | 6.5 |
| YPA vs Blitz | 7.4 | 9.6 |
| % TGT to Wide | 28% | 22% |
| % TGT to Slot | 41% | 48% |
| % TGT to RB | 20% | 18% |
| % TGT to TE | 21% | 26% |
| YPC | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Gap Run % | 29.0% | 29.0% |
| Zone Run % | 69.0% | 70.0% |
| Red Zone Pass Rate | 58.0% | 63.0% |
| Red Zone Rush Rate | 42.0% | 37.0% |
Defensive Statistics & Tendencies
| Defense | Chargers | Chiefs |
| Zone Coverage % | 60.0% | 54.0% |
| Man Coverage % | 25.0% | 32.0% |
| Primary Coverage | Cover 3 | Cover 3 |
| Secondary Coverage | Cover 1 | Cover 1 |
| Blitz % | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| Stacked Box % | 20.0% | 9.0% |
| YPC | 4.64 | 4.77 |
Chargers-Chiefs: Multiplier Pool
- Mahomes
- He struggled last season against the coverages the Chargers will primarily run; however, I expect this to be his first chance to display what tweaks they have in store against it.
- Jackson not being in the Chargers' secondary prevents them from playing at an elite level.
- Herbert
- Herbert is hard to put into a lineup, but he is fully capable of doing it through the air and on the ground. It is tough to fit both quarterbacks into a build, and with the improvements of their respective defenses, I lean away from attempting that build.
- Both teams will be aggressive with their quarterbacks while leading and not need to feature the ground game to grind out the clock.
- Kelce
- Kelce had more than 100 yards in both games vs. the Chargers last season.
- In Zone coverage, he will have a high target share and be the go-to to find the soft spot in the defense.
- Ekeler
- 18 touches was a disappointing Week 1, but I expect a bounce back from Ekeler and believe this will be a game where they feature him. Ten days of rest, and the next matchup being the Jaguars plays into my thought process here.
- Chiefs gave up 8 receptions to running backs on Sunday.
- Ekler is my favorite option at the multiplier position for a bounce-back week.
READ MORE: Thursday Night Football Player Props
- Williams
- Hughes is no longer on the Chiefs' roster for Williams to take advantage of, but with the state of the WR core, and his numbers vs. Zone Coverage, it’s tough to leave Williams out of the multiplier pool.
- Smith-Schuster
- Smith-Schuster is only going to gain chemistry with Mahomes as the season goes, and without Jackson, the Chargers have an underwhelming cornerback room.
- He saw 63% of snaps out wide, and that’s a great sign since Davante Adams did his work on the outside.
- Palmer
- I expect Palmer to step up and have a big game without Allen. Palmer is projected to be a popular player, but I am willing to take advantage of it.
- McKinnon
- He gets enough work and is underpriced on DraftKings. Pacheco should not be more expensive, and you can get multiple top-end players with him as the multiplier position on DraftKings.
Chargers-Chiefs: FLEX Pool
- Valdes-Scantling
- He is always capable of a long touchdown, but even with one, he’s not at the normal cheap price he lives at.
- Mecole Hardman
- The third option in this receiving room was the player they targeted down the field the most. Hardman isn’t a strong play because Palmer is cheaper and much better, but Hardman is less popular.
- Carter
- Despite performing in Week 1, he is not projected to be popular and will have the slot role in three wide receiver sets.
- Carter is also a player Herbert seemed to trust to target in tight coverage.
- Everett
- Everett performed at a high level this past weekend but still has others take meaningful snaps at the position. He has touchdown appeal but could have it stolen from Tre' McKitty.
- Chiefs D/ST
- This defense is much improved, and I expect them to play some of their best football at home.
- The Raiders got pressure but could not sack Herbert or force a turnover. However, the Raiders were never led, and the Chiefs could be up early.
- Jody Fortson
- He scored this past weekend and is a player they could put in close to the red zone.
- McKitty
- McKitty almost ran as many routes as Everett did, and he is at the $200 price tag on DraftKings. He doesn’t need a big workload to pay off.
WATCH MORE: The Chargers Have so Much Upside
