Fantasy
9/12/22
5 min read
Broncos-Seahawks DFS Monday Night Showdown
On Monday, the Denver Broncos take on the Seattle Seahawks, and all of the attention will be on Russell Wilson as he makes his first start against his former team. The Seahawks named Geno Smith the starter, and their offense is projected to regress. Figuring out the primary contributors for the Broncos' offense will be the key to the entire slate, as they are big favorites.
Vegas Line: Broncos -6.5
Game Total (Over/Under): 44.5
Notable Injuries:
Broncos: OLB Randy Gregory (Questionable), WR KJ Hamler (Questionable), and OL Billy Turner (Questionable)
Seahawks: OL Damien Lewis (Questionable), RB Kenneth Walker III (Questionable), and CB Artie Burns (Doubtful)
Broncos-Seahawks: Info You Need
Broncos Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
- Seattle’s defense will play zone coverage on most plays, and last season Jerry Jeudy averaged more yards per route run when facing zone coverage.Â
- While on the field together, Jeudy out-targeted Courtland Sutton.
- In 2020, Russell Wilson averaged 7.9 yards per attempt vs. zone coverage and had a 6% TD rate, ranking 3rd in the NFL.
- The new offense for the Denver Broncos will likely mirror the Green Bay Packers offense.
- Aaron Rodgers targeted the slot on 101 attempts vs. zone coverage. The two primary slot WRs will be Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.
- Javonte Williams will likely start for the Broncos but will be in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon.Â
- The Packers had a 61% pass rate in the red zone, and Wilson had a 30% TD rate in the red zone last year.
Seahawks Offense vs. Broncos Defense
- As the starter last year, Geno Smith threw for over 200 yards only once and was sacked 13 times in three games.
- Tyler Lockett out-targeted DK Metcalf by ten, but DK Metcalf managed to have more yards and recorded five touchdowns compared to Lockett’s zero. Â
- The Broncos will have a new look defense this year and will likely mirror the heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 scheme of the Rams.Â
- Against this scheme, Geno Smith averaged 8.3 yards per attempt but was sacked on 12% of dropbacks.
- With the amount of time Kenneth Walker III has missed, expect Rashaad Penny to carry the full workload. Last season he had four games over 100 yards rushing.Â
- The Broncos' run defense will be its weakest spot.
Data Provided by SIS
Offensive Statistics and Tendencies
| Offense | Broncos | Seahawks |
| YPA vs. Zone | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| YPA vs. Man | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| YPA vs Blitz | 8.9 | 7.5 |
| % TGT to Wide | 25% | 36% |
| % TGT to Slot | 35% | 39% |
| % TGT to RB | 18% | 14% |
| % TGT to TE | 27% | 21% |
| YPC | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| Gap Run % | 35.0% | 27.0% |
| Zone Run % | 64.0% | 72.0% |
| Red Zone Pass Rate | 51.0% | 54.0% |
| Red Zone Rush Rate | 49.0% | 46.0% |
Defensive Statistics and Tendencies
| Defense | Broncos | Seahawks |
| Zone Coverage % | 47.0% | 66.0% |
| Man Coverage % | 42.0% | 14.0% |
| Primary Coverage | Cover 1 | Cover 3 |
| Secondary Coverage | Cover 3 | Cover 2 |
| Blitz % | 16.0% | 12.0% |
| Stacked Box % | 4.0% | 17.0% |
| YPC | 4.29 | 3.80 |
Broncos-Seahawks: Multiplier Pool
- Russell Wilson
- In Wilson CPT lineups, I will get at least three pass catchers for the Denver side and look for a 4-5 touchdown night from Wilson.
- Javonte Williams
- The Seahawks were one of the worst teams in the NFL against receiving running backs. Williams was a better receiver than Melvin Gordon in 2021, getting more targets and yards per route run.
- Courtland Sutton
- Beat reporters have labeled Sutton as Wilson’s favorite WR. So in builds with him as the CPT, I will look to get away from Jeudy.
- DK Metcalf
- Metcalf produced much more than Lockett did in their time with Geno Smith. Expect that to continue.
- Jerry Jeudy
- Jeudy is my favorite CPT play out of the group because of the narratives surrounding him and Sutton that seem to make fantasy players reluctant to roster him.Â
- Broncos D/ST
- Geno Smith has been known to turn the ball over and take plenty of sacks. The Denver D/ST saves you enough salary to get some of the elite options mentioned previously.
Broncos-Seahawks: FLEX Pool
- Rashaad Penny
- Penny will be the workhorse for this backfield, and they will attempt to run the ball often.
- Tyler Lockett
- Lockett out-targeted Metcalf with Geno Smith at QB, but the connection was never there. Lockett is only a flex play and not a great one.
- Drew Lock
- In a large field contest where you compete with over 100,000 people, I believe in Denver D/ST CPT lineups; you can play Drew Lock if Geno Smith is benched.
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- In Wilson's CPT builds, I like Okwuegbunam as a play because he will be a big-bodied target for Wilson inside the red zone.
- Montrell Washington
- If KJ Hamler misses the game because of injury, Washington will likely be their WR 3 in 11 personnel and will not need much to pay off his price tag on DraftKings.
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