NFL Analysis
12/31/24
6 min read
Detroit Lions Defense Isn't Good Enough For a Super Bowl Run
The Detroit Lions have been considered the best team in the NFL for the majority of the 2024 season. However, a wave of injuries and struggles on defense could keep them from being legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Despite an impressive effort from the San Francisco 49ers, the Lions held on for another win in a 40-34 shootout on Monday Night Football. The 49ers generated 400 net passing yards, while star TE George Kittle and rookie WR Ricky Pearsall both broke 100 receiving yards.
Detroit has now allowed at least 30 points in three of its last four games, with only the Chicago Bears not hitting that number. That won't cut it once the playoffs begin, with the offenses in the NFC playoff picture presenting a huge problem for Detroit's struggling defense.
An Injury-Plagued Season
Before discussing what's wrong with the Lions' defense, it's important to contextualize how injuries have battered the unit.
The wave of injuries started when star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a gruesome broken leg in Week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys. It was a massive blow to the team's pass rush, as he was pacing for a Defensive Player of the Year award with 7.5 sacks in only five games.
After Hutchinson went down, injuries continued to pile up. Other key pass rushers, Alim McNeil and Marcus Davenport, are out for the year, and the secondary has been pulverized with injuries to starting CB Carlton Davis and key backups Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and Khalil Dorsey.
However, no unit on the Lions has been hit harder than the linebacker room. Derrick Barnes, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Alex Anzalone, and Malcolm Rodriguez have all been on injured reserve at some point, including all at the same time.
The good news is that Reeves-Maybin was activated off of IR, and head coach Dan Campbell recently suggested that Anzalone is close to returning after breaking his forearm in Week 11.
Those reinforcements are desperately needed, but they may not be enough to get the Lions over the hump.
A Pass-Rushing Problem
With no Hutchinson or McNeil, the Lions are running out of answers on how to get to the quarterback.
Despite not playing since Week 6, Hutchinson is still tied for the team lead with 45 pressures this season, according to Pro Football Focus. McNeil is the team's co-leader in pressures but is also out for the year after he tore his ACL.
The lack of pass rush is becoming a huge problem for defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who is being forced to bring extra pressure on passing plays. According to TruMedia, the Lions have blitzed on 42.4 percent of dropbacks in the last four weeks, the second-highest rate in the NFL during that time.
Extra rushers aren't helping, however, with the Lions generating a sack on 3.6 of dropbacks in that span, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
The lone bright spot on the pass-rushing front has been the acquisition of journeyman veteran Za'Darius Smith. A former rival pass rusher for the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, Smith was traded to the Lions back in early November.
That trade turned out to be a huge win for the Lions. Smith is already fourth on the team with 31 pressures despite only playing seven games in Detroit, racking up three sacks in that time. It's not just that Smith still has plenty left in the tank, but Glenn is also finding ways to utilize him and mix up how he's rushing the passer to keep offenses guessing.
Absolutely loved the way Aaron Glenn was using Za’Darius Smith to manufacture pressure yesterday.
— Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) November 18, 2024
This versatility with Smith was the main reason I wanted him.
More stunts and stand-up mug looks plz. #Lions pic.twitter.com/JdPTMMUpAi
However, there are few other reliable (and healthy) options on Detroit's defense who are capable of getting to the quarterback. No healthy option on that unit has more than three sacks this season. Levi Onwuzurike is the only other healthy Lions payer not named Smith with more than 30 pressures.
A lack of pass rush puts even more pressure on pass coverage, and the Lions are struggling on that front as well.
Pass Coverage Concerns
The Lions still have a top-tier safety duo in Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. However, the rest of the pass defense is making it difficult to get off the field.
Joseph is having a career year. He leads the NFL with nine interceptions and 12 pass breakups, allowing a passer rating of just 74.8 when targeted. Branch has been just as disruptive on the backend, coming away with four interceptions and 15 PBUs.
However, the Lions now have some big question marks at cornerback with injuries to Davis, Rakestraw, and Dorsey. Rookie Terrion Arnold is taking some lumps in his first NFL season, allowing four touchdowns with zero interceptions in coverage. Now he's being tasked with being a full-time starting outside corner.
While there are flashes of a playmaking corner, there are also times when Arnold gives up way too much cushion off of releases against explosive receivers.
Brian Thomas giving Terrion Arnold the business.
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 23, 2024
6'4" should not be dancing like that.
This man is a gift. SPECIAL SPECIAL pic.twitter.com/vRNsgUEFqK
The corners are unproven starters, but it's the linebackers and underneath coverage that's really hurting the Lions in recent weeks. Per TruMedia, the Lions are allowing a passer rating of 116.2 in the last four games on throws with 10 or fewer air yards, completing 61-of-81 passes for 518 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Because of the lack of depth at linebacker, offenses can take advantage of the backup LBs being forced into playing, specifically with play-action concepts. The Lions are allowing a 110.8 passer rating against play-action passes and were gashed again on Monday night against the 49ers.
🧃🧃🧃
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 31, 2024
📺: #DETvsSF on ESPN
NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4oaLh pic.twitter.com/DA6HphRaqT
Without being able to rush the passer, handle play-action, or take away underneath throws, teams in the playoffs with competent offenses should be able to put up big numbers, adding even more pressure on Detroit's offense to come through.
The Lions' offense has been sensational all year, but it might not be able to consistently keep up once the playoffs begin.
