Breakdowns
11/4/21
5 min read
Daily Fantasy Week 9: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks
Welcome back to the Daily Fantasy: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks article for Week 9 of the NFL season. Week 8 gives a return to (semi) normalcy, as the league's top offenses take the field on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers missing this weekend's matchup with Kansas City dampers one of the potential shootout environments on the slate, but it still should be a firework-filled Sunday. Check out the website tomorrow to see our strategy analyzer article for this weekend's games.
Love It
Players in the “Love it” section are guys that we are excited to play in any format, regardless of the ownership that they may garner that week.
Lamar Jackson ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Lamar Jackson's price feels too cheap on both sites. He is the QB3 on FanDuel and the QB4 on DraftKings, but he has a legitamate shot to be the highest scoring quarterback on the slate. The Vikings have had a fairly stout pass defense so far this year, but Jackson should be able to do damage as a runner. The Ravens are thin at the running back position, as Latavius Murray is probably going to miss this contest. Jackson has 50+ yards on the ground in 6 of 7 games, and the Ravens offense has looked dynamic as a whole this year.
Jackson has improved as a passer this year, as he is averaging 70 more yards per game through the air than his previous career best. He also has some nice career trends going for him in this game. Jackson averages 2.51 more DraftKings points per game at home versus on the road, as well as 2.41 more DraftKings points per game as a favorite as opposed to an underdog. Especially on DraftKings, Jackson is an absolute smash play, and should be the first man into your lineups in cash games. He is still an awesome tournament play, just know that he'll come with some ownership.
Need It
This section will contain guys who we believe are necessary when you are constructing a lineup for cash games. They are still viable in tournaments, but they aren’t necessary. We still like them as plays, but these guys may come with higher ownership, which could provide merit to fading them and going another route.
Elijah Mitchell ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
One of the keys to cash games this year has been getting some savings at the RB2 position, and Elijah Mitchell provides just that this week, especially on DraftKings. Mitchell has 18 touches in back-to-back weeks and seems to have a stranglehold on the lead running back position in San Francisco. He didn't see any receiving work out of the backfield, but we aren't extremely worried. 15+ touches in a run-friendly offense for a reasonable price tag is a spot to attack.
Arizona allows the 13th most rush yards per game at 120.1, and the second-highest rush yards per attempt at 4.9. Despite these numbers, they still give up the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs at 21.1 per game. We believe more in those first two stats and buy into those. In cash games, it's hard not to look to Mitchell with his guaranteed touches. In tournaments, it makes sense to go in a different direction if Mitchell is going to be highly owned.
Hate it
Players in the “Hate it” section are guys that we do not want to roster that week in DFS for a number of reasons. They may have a bad matchup, they may be projecting to have too much ownership, they may be too expensive, or it could be a combination of the three.
Kyler Murray ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Kyler Murray is dealing with an ankle injury but is expected to play Sunday against San Francisco. Assuming he suits up, we still have no interest in rostering Murray. He was far less effective last year as a fantasy quarterback when he was injured, and he's also missing some weapons. A.J. Green is on the COVID list, and DeAndre Hopkins is battling a hamstring injury. Murray only put up 13.66 DraftKings points in this matchup in Week 5, and it's hard to see this one going much different.
Murray is priced around the likes of Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes, making him an afterthought. He's the only one of the pack with an injury to worry about, and he's the only one who isn't a favorite in their respective game. We think people may get excited about playing Murray at low ownership, but we prefer going in a different direction.
Lottery Picks
The Lottery Picks section contains players who we think have the upside to be in tournament-winning lineups. As well as having the ceiling to win tournaments, these players also won’t come with too much ownership
Davante Adams ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
With Rodgers missing the Packers' game due to COVID, it takes some of the public's fantasy appeal off of Davante Adams. However, we're ready to jump in on Adams. Matt Lafleur is still calling plays, and Love is a talented former first-round pick. Adams' red zone and overall roles are insane, and he may see single-digit ownership. A low-owned Adams is a situation we want to take advantage of.
The Chiefs' defense is horrific, and it doesn't take a maestro of a quarterback to pick them apart. Offenses have had their way with the Chiefs, as the Eagles and Chargers were both able to put up 30+ points despite sputtering slightly on offense. Adams has still averaged double-digit DraftKings points (16) in his career games without Rodgers. He is also far better of a player now than he was last time he played without him. Getting one of the best receivers in the league at low ownership in a plus matchup is a no-brainer.
