Breakdowns
12/16/21
5 min read
Daily Fantasy Week 15: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks
Welcome back to the Daily Fantasy: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks article for Week 15 of the NFL season. This week leaves us with only a few elite running back options and a lot of attractive elite receivers. Keep reading to find out who are the essential pieces in our Week 15 lineups.
Love It
Players in the “Love it” section are guys that we are excited to play in any format, regardless of the ownership that they may garner that week.
Davante Adams ($8,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Davante Adams has 7+ receptions in four straight games, 100+ receiving yards in three straight, and four touchdowns over his past three games. He's averaged 30.67 DraftKings points over his last three games, and now has four games above 30 DraftKings points on the season. Adams is heating up, and he is underpriced on both sites for the tear that he is on.
Adams now matches up with a Ravens defense that is 23rd in overall DVOA, and 26th in DVOA against the pass. Those numbers also come with Marlon Humphrey playing, and he's now lost for the year to injury. The Ravens have been a pass-funnel all season long, as teams have looked to beat them by throwing. The Packers' offense is humming as of late, and Adams is the main engine. He should put up another great game on Sunday.
Need It
This section will contain guys who we believe are necessary when you are constructing a lineup for cash games. They are still viable in tournaments, but they aren’t necessary. We still like them as plays, but these guys may come with higher ownership, which could provide merit to fading them and going another route.
James Robinson ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
With Urban Meyer out of town and Darrell Bevell praising James Robinson, it seems like it may be Robinson's time to shine. Robinson has been underutilized in the past couple of weeks, but we think that will reverse now that Meyer is out of town. Last year Robinson was a newfound treasure, and they'll probably look to feed him again. Robinson did well earlier in the year, with four straight games of 15+ touches in weeks 3-6, where he scored 19+ DraftKings points in all four.
Six running backs have topped 90 total yards against Houston, and they've given up 150+ total yards to opposing backfields in each of their past four games. People may overreact to Robinson only carrying the ball 6 times last week, but that was all but one of Jacksonville's rush attempts. Robinson's price is very affordable on both sites, and he'll come with high ownership. Regardless, we're high on Robinson this weekend.
Hate it
Players in the “Hate it” section are guys that we do not want to roster that week in DFS for a number of reasons. They may have a bad matchup, they may be projecting to have too much ownership, they may be too expensive, or it could be a combination of the three.
Lamar Jackson ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Lamar Jackson may not even play this week, but if he does, we're not very interested in him. Jackson relies so much on his mobility, so we would like to avoid him while he's nursing an injured ankle. He's also just been flat-out unproductive over the past four games, as he has three passing touchdowns and six interceptions. The only reason that he's salvaged value over that stretch is due to his legs, and with a bad ankle, it's hard to expect much mobility out of him.
Green Bay has also had a relatively impressive defense this season, as they've given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Packers' pass rush has gotten home all season long and feasted on quarterbacks who hold onto the ball for a long time. Jackson holds the ball longer than most quarterbacks in the league, and they have a very banged-up offensive line. Jackson is off of our radar this weekend.
Lottery Picks
The Lottery Picks section contains players who we think have the upside to be in tournament-winning lineups. As well as having the ceiling to win tournaments, these players also won’t come with too much ownership.
Christian Kirk ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
With DeAndre Hopkins set to miss some time, Christian Kirk is going to have to step up for the Cardinals' offense. Kirk already has a 17.2% target share to go along with 7 end zone targets on the year. He has a similar XFP (expected fantasy points) to Hopkins, and he steps into a similar role for far less ownership. Kirk is also first on the team with 863 air yards on the season, giving his target more value than others.
With Arizona looking for someone to step up in the passing game, Kirk may be that guy. A lot of people will look to roster Zach Ertz this week, but Kirk provides awesome leverage off of Ertz. Kirk is a big-play threat who will go under-owned in tournaments.
