NFL Draft
3/12/25
9 min read
Contextualizing Wide Receiver Production: Who Adds The Most in the 2025 Draft Class?
There are no more bad wide receiver draft classes. What now constitutes a lackluster class is one that lacks multiple potential No. 1 receivers.
Following the 2024 draft class that featured Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers ascending immediately, the promise of other top-10 picks Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze, as well as Day 2 breakouts such as Ladd McConkey, would be tough for any group of receivers.
It is certainly the case for the 2025 class that doesn’t have the players viewed as that type of dominant outside No. 1. Still, that doesn’t mean there’s a lack of receiver quality in this class.
This year’s draft class could be compared to the 2023 class, which was viewed in a similar way. No receivers were viewed as players who could be the lead force in an offense, and no receiver was drafted in the first 20 picks. Jaxon Smtih-Njigba, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers were all first-round picks and have proven to be receivers who can at least be 1B options in their offenses.
Meanwhile, Jayden Reed, Marvin Mims, and Tank Dell were productive receivers drafted on Day 2.
That 2023 class had a wider collection of players who were on the field often, which did have a lower overall impact, but there were also some high-efficiency players.
But the potential lack of a capital-A guy has some wondering about the overall quality of the class. The way teams were aggressive in both trades and free agency for veteran wide receivers could signify some hesitation about diving head-first into the incoming rookie receivers.
But there are still good players in this class who can contribute.
Figuring out who those are and how they can do it is the hard part. Given how different offenses and roles can be across college football, there’s no easy way to compare what these players were asked to do.
A way to help differentiate those offenses is a metric I’ve called "Target Yards Added." Simply, Target Yards Added takes a wide receiver’s yards per target and subtracts yards per attempt when the quarterback throws to anyone else on offense. That way, we get a bit of a baseline of what the overall production was and what a given receiver adds to it. These numbers are all based on the receiver’s final college season.
This metric is not meant as a proxy for receiver rankings, but it can provide some more context on how these receivers performed and on their surroundings.
Let’s dig in a little further about what these numbers mean for the receivers in this class.
Top of the class
The ideal combination is when the highly-rated receivers are also the ones who added the most of their offenses. The top receiver in this class is expected to be Arizona’s Tet McMillian. He’s the lone receiver who profiles as the outside X option who can lead an offense.
McMillian isn’t at the top of Target Yards Added, but his 2.63 figure is well above average and meshes nicely with the rest of his receiving metrics. Last year, he was third in this class with 3.06 yards per route run, second in target share at 33.6 percent, and 10th in targets per route run at 30.2 percent, according to TruMedia.
He’s smooth as a route runner and has the hands and body control to bring down almost anything that comes relatively near him when targeted. The long speed might not be there, but he’s more than capable of producing big plays with the way he sets up his routes and the separation he can create.
Matthew Golden of Texas has shot up to be the No. 2 receiver in this class, and he might be one of the most exciting. Golden ran an unexpected 4.29 40-yard dash at the combine, and while he might not show up as a complete burner on tape, he is still one of the most explosive receivers in the country.
Golden’s blend of quickness and smoothness allows his routes to create tons of separation that he can use to gain chunk plays. He doesn’t have size — he measured at 5-foot-11 in Indianapolis — but he has great hands and can play just about anywhere.
Production vs. Athleticism
The performance metrics from Illinois receiver Pat Bryant suggest he could be a worthwhile mid-round selection — he’s not listed in most top-100 big boards you’ll see around the internet. Bryant comes out with an impressive 6.21 Target Yards Added, which is second in this class.
However, Bryant’s combine performance could temper some expectations. Bryant ran a 4.61 40-yard dash and had the third-lowest top speed of 39 wide receivers who ran in Indianapolis.
However, per Next Gen Stats tracking, Bryant was faster at five yards out of the gate (13.91 mph) than Golden (13.90), though obviously there wasn’t much more acceleration for Bryant after that.
But Bryant doesn’t win because of speed or out-athleting defensive backs. He’s a good route runner who knows how to find space in the defense and get open. He also had the ninth-highest top speed for receivers in the gauntlet drill, which matches more with how he plays on film.
A disappointing combine performance hasn’t removed me from the Bryant fan club, and it could be a bigger reason for his becoming a draft-day value.
Lifting Bad Offenses
Part of why Target Yards Added is useful is the ability to judge players based on what they were surrounded by in their offenses, and some college passing offenses are just not good.
Stanford’s Elic Ayomanor averaged 7.62 yards per target, which is not an impressive figure, but when the Stanford offense targeted anyone else, the average was just 5.61 yards per target. That was the worst rate among receivers in this class. Ayomanor’s 2.01 Target Yards Added is above average and puts some of his other metrics into context.
Jalen Royals of Utah State also falls into this category. He was an efficient receiver, averaging 3.10 yards per route run and a 30.1 percent target per route rate, while the offense averaged 6.35 yards per attempt when throwing to anyone else. He didn’t have the same volume as some of the other receivers in this class, with only 269 routes in 2024, but he was efficient on the routes he ran.
This is also where we can focus on some of the other receivers rounding out the expected top five. Missouri’s Luther Burden III and the Iowa State duo of Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins all had to play on relatively poor passing offenses. By this metric, Noel is the most impressive player, though Higgins is the one mocked ahead of him, according to Grinding The Mocks data.
Can Travis Hunter Play Receiver?
Yes.
For not being a strictly full-time receiver — or apparently practicing the position much at all — Hunter’s metrics come out nearly identical to Tet McMillian’s.
Hunter isn’t exactly refined as a route runner, but his hands and body control — his strengths as a cornerback — show up on offense. He’s also dominant running crossers, and if there was a plus-minus scale, Hunter might be the most valuable player in the league on crossing routes with his ability to run them as a receiver and his penchant for jumping them as a defensive back.
Trying To Figure Out Ohio State Receivers
One thing this formula struggles with is Ohio State receivers. There are so many good ones that it’s difficult to even properly contextualize what’s going on in Columbus.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 2021 season was great by this metric, as was Terry McLaurin’s 2019 in a small sample. Top receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Thomas also came out well.
But in the past few years, with Ohio State running so deep at receiver, some players haven’t come out as favorably. Chris Olave is the best NFL receiver who came out with negative Target Yards Added in his final college season — typically a stay-away red flag.
My radar starts going off for players under 1.0, and while that made sense for someone like Parris Campbell, it undersold Garrett Wilson.
That’s where Emeka Egbuka lands this year, with just 0.38 Target Yards Added after sharing the field with freshman Jeremiah Smith.
He’s still projected to go in the back of the first round because of his play style. He’s good at a lot of things — even if he’s not great in one specific area. Egbuka played 72.3 percent of his snaps in the slot and was a lower-aDOT threat who could run after the catch.
Betting On Speed
If you are going to bet on speed, do it with receivers who add value to the offense. Often, we see speed become an overdrafted asset for players who do not effectively use it as part of their game.
Xavier Worthy (0.00) and Adonai Mitchell (-1.89) were two examples last season.
Standouts here this year include Georgia’s Arian Smith and Flordia’s Chimere Dike, both at 4.28 Target Yards Added.
Smith started his college career playing football and running track. He was an All-America sprinter but was not always consistent on the football field. He finally developed into the team’s deep threat in 2024. He led the team in receiving yards, and his 15 catches of 20 or more yards more than doubled the next-highest Georgia receiver.
His straight-line speed was never a question — he ran a 4.39 — but he also recorded the fastest top speed among receivers who did the agility drills in the short shuttle (14.8 mph with 14.25mph in second place and 13.70 mph in third) and the 3-cone at 16.22 mph with the next-fastest player (Dike) at 14.53 mph.
If Smith can translate that into more routes, he could be a legitimate threat on any play to all areas of the field.
Dike was similar with the Gators, though he played 52.4 percent of his snaps from the slot and had 18 receptions of 20 or more yards.
He can use his speed to win on crossers, often finding space underneath deep defenders. Despite only having a 6-foot frame, he used his body to protect himself and the ball even when the pass was late, with a hit inevitable.
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