Dolphins Are Winners, Jets Among Losers from 2023 NFL Schedule Release
Analysis 5/15/23
Among the NFL’s tent-pole events, the NFL schedule release reveals few discussions of winners and losers. I’m not talking about how the teams’ schedules were announced. I’m talking about winners and losers.
There is one team that “won” the 2023 schedule — the Miami Dolphins.
>> READ: Dolphins' Full Schedule
I say this because the Dolphins begin their season with consecutive road games and three of their first four games on the road. I love the Las Vegas Raiders’ schedule for a similar reason. Las Vegas has three of its first four games on the road (at Denver, at Buffalo, home to Pittsburgh, at Chargers), have a late bye week (Week 13) and end the year with four of its final six games at home.
Why do I think it’s advantageous to open with three of the first four games on the road?
When I play craps in a casino, I’m known as a “wrong bettor.” A wrong player at the craps table bets that the dice will not pass, which makes a wrong bettor not popular at the craps table (or, in my case, anywhere else).
Most people at a craps table are “right bettors,” meaning they are always betting the shooter will win, while the wrong bettors are always betting against the shooter.
On the initial roll of the dice, right bettors are more likely to win (they need a 7 or 11 to win immediately). Wrong bettors like myself prefer to sweat out the initial roll (or season opener) and see the odds tilt slightly in our favor if we get past the initial throw of the dice.
What I’m saying is this: I will take my chances of getting crushed early on the chance that if/when I survive the initial bet, the odds will be stacked in my favor.
If I had to face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo once each season, I’d prefer to do it early. There’s time to recover if you don’t win, and it’s a great springboard to a season if you do.
Now that you have my philosophy, here are my winners and losers of the 2023 NFL Schedule Release.
Winners: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins end the season with four of their last five games at home. They have a late bye (Week 10) after their most challenging road game of the season (traveling to Germany to play Kansas City).
They face the formidable Bills in Buffalo on Oct. 1. Who wants to travel to Buffalo and face snow and wind in late December? Give me a nice early October fall day. The Bills come to Miami for the season finale in Week 18. If a playoff spot is at stake, it’s far better to be home.
Miami Dolphins from Week 14 on:
Week | Date | Time (ET) | Opponent |
14 | Dec. 11 | 8:15 p.m. | vs. Tennessee |
15 | Dec. 17 | 1 p.m. | vs. N.Y. Jets |
16 | Dec. 24 | 4:25 p.m. | vs. Dallas |
17 | Dec. 31 | 1 p.m. | at Baltimore |
18 | Jan. 7 | TBD | vs. Buffalo |
Don’t believe me about the Dolphins being at an advantage starting the season with three of their first four games away from South Beach? Common sense says you don’t want to play home games in miserable heat in September. And history is on the side of this argument as well.
The Dolphins haven’t started a season with three of the first four games on the road since 2016. Before that, it was in 2013. Then, you must go back to 1992 and 1990.
In 2016, the Dolphins were coming off a 6-10 season. They began the season like this:
- Week 1: Lost at Seattle, 12-10
- Week 2: Lost at New England, 31-24
- Week 3: Won at home, 30-24 in OT, vs. Cleveland
- Week 4: Lost at Cincinnati, 22-7
The Dolphins finished 10-6 and made the playoffs under Adam Gase, who was in his first season as an NFL head coach. The team went 9-3 after the first month of the season and lost their wild-card game. Of course, quarterback Ryan Tannehill got hurt and didn’t play after Week 14, leaving the job to Matt Moore.
In 1992, the Dolphins started road-home-road-road and got through the first quarter of the season 4-0. That was the springboard to an appearance in the AFC Championship, the last time they reached the conference title game. Now, going back and researching, I found something startling about the 1992 Dolphins' schedule. Their bye was in Week 1.
The damage caused by Hurricane Andrew forced the Patriots-Dolphins opener to be rescheduled to Oct. 18 (when both teams had their original bye slated). That meant the Dolphins had three of their first four games on the road.
Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
1 | Sept. 7 | -- | Bye |
2 | Sept. 14 | at Cleveland | W, 27-23 |
3 | Sept. 20 | vs. L.A. Rams | W, 26-10 |
4 | Sept. 27 | at Seattle | W, 19-17 |
5 | Oct. 4 | at Buffalo | W, 37-10 |
Notice the Week 5 game had the Dolphins winning, 37-10, in Buffalo. In Week 11, the Bills won in Miami, 26-20. And in the AFC Championship, the Bills won in Miami again, this time by a score of 29-10.
Guess how the undefeated 1972 Dolphins started their season?
They opened their season with three of their first four games on the road, winning all three road games by beating Hall of Fame quarterbacks Len Dawson, Fran Tarkenton and Joe Namath.
I love opening the season with three of the first four games on the road. It worked for the 2022 Chiefs, who won the Super Bowl after starting the season with three of their first four on the road.
2022 Chiefs' First 4 Weeks
Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
1 | Sept. 11 | at Arizona | W, 44-21 |
2 | Sept. 15 | vs. L.A. Chargers | W, 27-24 |
3 | Sept. 25 | at Indianapolis | L, 20-17 |
4 | Oct. 2 | at Tampa Bay | W, 41-31 |
It worked for the 2019 Chiefs, who won the Super Bowl after starting the season with three of their first four games on the road.
2019 Chiefs' First 4 Weeks
Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
1 | Sept. 8 | at Jacksonville | W, 40-26 |
2 | Sept. 15 | at Las Vegas | W, 28-10 |
3 | Sept. 22 | vs. Baltimore | W, 33-28 |
4 | Oct. 19 | at Detroit | W, 34-30 |
It worked for the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, who won the Super Bowl after starting the season with three of their first four games on the road.
2017 Eagles' First 4 Weeks
Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
1 | Sept. 10 | Washington | W, 30-17 |
2 | Sept. 17 | Kansas City | L, 27-20 |
3 | Sept. 24 | N.Y. Giants | W, 27-24 |
4 | Oct. 1 | L.A. Chargers | W, 26-24 |
And it worked for the 2014 New England Patriots, who won the Super Bowl after starting the season with three of their first four on the road.
2014 Patriots' First 4 Weeks
Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
1 | Sept. 7 | at Miami | L, 33-20 |
2 | Sept. 14 | at Minnesota | W, 30-7 |
3 | Sept. 21 | Las Vegas | W, 16-9 |
4 | Oct. 29 | at Kansas City | L, 41-14 |
After the loss in Kansas City, Bill Belichick’s team was 2-2, and his famous quote was focused on the next game vs. Cincinnati. The team went 10-2 the rest of the regular season (13-2, including the postseason). I like having the hard part of the schedule early and a slight break late.
Near-Winners: Rams
The Los Angeles Rams also start 2023 with three of their first four games on the road (at Seattle, vs. San Francisco, at Cincinnati, and at Indianapolis). They’re not a “winner” because they end their season with consecutive road games (at New York Giants, at San Francisco), and those games are not easy.
>> READ: Rams' Full Schedule, Dates, Times, Primetime Games
Biggest Losers: Jets, Jaguars
Both the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars enter the season with high expectations. Well, September better be good to them.
The Jets open with three of their first four games at home. They open with Buffalo, and after a road game in Dallas, they have home games with New England and Kansas City.
I see them 1-3 after four weeks, with all three losses coming at home.
The Jaguars open on the road (at Indianapolis) before three consecutive home games (Kansas City, Houston, Atlanta). A 2-2 start is okay, but anything worse is a disaster.
Elliott Kalb has been known in the sports television industry as "Mr. Stats" for more than 35 years. He is a 13-time Sports Emmy winner as a writer, researcher and producer. Follow him on Twitter @MrStats50.