Analysis
5/11/23
24 min read
2023 NFL Schedule Release: Projecting Win Totals for Every Team
Below, you’ll find win total predictions for all 32 NFL teams, along with overall analysis and strength of schedule metrics.
If you’re interested in learning more about the process behind the win totals and strength of schedule, along with Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds’ team tiers, be sure to check out this companion piece, where you can also see win probabilities for every team in all 272 games that will be played in 2023.
>>READ: Complete 2023 NFL Schedule
Top-10 and bottom-10 strength of schedule teams will be highlighted in red and green, respectively. Red indicates a hard schedule, while green indicates an easy one.
NFC North Win Projections
Detroit Lions
Predicted Record: 10-7
Strength of Schedule: 22nd overall (27th home, 13th away)
>> READ: Detroit Lions Full 2023 Schedule
The Detroit Lions scored the fifth-most points in the NFL last season, and the offensive weapons have improved. RB Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report), the 12th overall pick, and TE Sam LaPorta (scouting report), the 34th overall pick, were brought in as NFL Draft reinforcements. QB Jared Goff again should have ample time to throw behind a mauling offensive line. The defense is anchored by last year’s second-overall pick, Aidan Hutchinson, and they made several key free-agent signings and draft picks to bolster this side of the ball, too. The Lions are division favorites according to betting markets and have one of the easiest home schedules. Most of their true tests will come on the road (Chiefs, Chargers, Cowboys, Ravens).
Chicago Bears
Predicted Record: 8-9
Strength of Schedule: 28th overall (30th home, 19th away)
>> READ: Chicago Bears Full 2023 Schedule
The 2023 version of the Chicago Bears should be noticeably improved from last year’s 3-14 team. Massive improvements to the receiving core (DJ Moore) and the offensive line will support QB Justin Fields’ continued development. The defense is still a work in progress, but the Bears' league-worst pass defense in the second half of 2022 should improve. In a vacuum, we think the Vikings are a shade better, but given the Bears’ significantly easier schedule, they project to win about half a game more than Minnesota. The Bears are a sneaky wild-card contender given the strides forward Fields can take with a more competent supporting cast, the overall lack of top-tier NFC teams, and Chicago's cupcake schedule.
Minnesota Vikings
Predicted Record: 8-9
Strength of Schedule: 15th overall (19th home, 12th away)
>> READ: Minnesota Vikings Full 2023 Schedule
After finishing 11-0 in one-score games last season, the Minnesota Vikings are the most obvious regression candidate in the NFL. They finished 13-4 last season despite being out-scored by their opponents. Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made comments this offseason indicating the team was dangerously close to entering a full-on rebuild. Last season’s eighth-best scoring offense lost WR Adam Thielen but brought in WR Jordan Addison (scouting report) in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. A full season of breakout star T.J. Hockenson helps as well. The Vikings defense allowed the second most passing yards per game last season, and their defense again should hold them back.
Green Bay Packers
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: 25th overall (24th home, 23rd away)
>> READ: Green Bay Packers Full 2023 Schedule
The Green Bay Packers were a disappointing watch throughout 2022, as QB Aaron Rodgers could never get the offense going, and a borderline elite defense on paper was just middle of the pack in points allowed. The switch from Rodgers to Jordan Love cannot be overstated, and this team will struggle to score points in 2023. The offensive line is led by LT David Bakhtiari, but he turns 32 in September and has battled injuries the past three seasons. The secondary under-performed last year as CB Jaire Alexander was the lone bright spot. Betting markets also have the Packers as the least likely team to win the NFC North this upcoming season.
NFC West Win Projections
San Francisco 49ers
Predicted Record: 11-6
Strength of Schedule: 20th overall (23rd home, 18th away)
>> READ: San Francisco 49ers Full 2023 Schedule
The San Francisco 49ers have played in three of the past four NFC Championship games, making them one of the league’s premier teams over the last decade. San Francisco enters 2023 with a top-five defense, an elite skill group on offense, and a premium head coach in Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has a manageable schedule while being -150 favorites to win the NFC West. On the downside, San Francisco has the most unresolved quarterback situation in the league. Unless Brock Purdy makes a miraculous recovery to start the season, San Francisco is looking at journeyman Sam Darnold or developmental prospect Trey Lance to start the season at quarterback. Additionally, the 49ers lost a significant offensive lineman for the second year in a row when RT Mike McGlinchey signed with Denver.
Seattle Seahawks
Predicted Record: 10-7
Strength of Schedule: 19th overall (25th home, 7th away)
>> READ: Seattle Seahawks Full 2023 Schedule
We’ve been bullish on the Seattle Seahawks all offseason because they were a wild-card team armed with significant draft capital and cap room. The Seahawks haven’t disappointed, as they’ve gotten significantly better this offseason. Seattle has bolstered its offense with the additions of rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) and running back Zack Charbonnet (scouting report). But the Seahawks really bolstered their defense by adding defenders through the draft and free agency who could make a real impact. Fifth overall pick Devon Witherspoon (scouting report), former Broncos DT Dre'Mont Jones, and the return of LB Bobby Wagner headline those acquisitions. If QB Geno Smith can duplicate his 2022 success, the Seahawks are on the short list of teams that can make a run in the NFC.
Los Angeles Rams
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: 16th overall (22nd home, 9th away)
>> READ: Los Angeles Rams Full 2023 Schedule
After finishing the 2021 season with a Super Bowl win in their home stadium, everything went wrong for the Los Angeles Rams in 2022. On the positive side, coach Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp and the great DL Aaron Donald all are back for the Rams. On the downside, Los Angeles is average or worse virtually everywhere else and its offensive line still could be a bottom-five unit. That strong core and a league-average schedule have us projecting the Rams to be better than last year but not back to being a contending team.
Arizona Cardinals
Predicted Record: 4-13
Strength of Schedule: 12th overall (9th home, 15th away)
>> READ: Arizona Cardinals Full 2023 Schedule
QB Kyler Murray is expected to miss significant time, which massively reduces the Arizona Cardinals’ ceiling for this season. The Cardinals have a new head coach, a below-average offensive line, and a below-average pass rush and secondary on defense. Pair those conditions with a tough schedule and Colt McCoy looking like the team’s opening-day quarterback, and it’s hard to envision Arizona having significant success this season. That said, the Cardinals will have their first-round pick as well as the Texans' in next year’s draft, making 2024 a very interesting year for them.
NFC South Win Projections
New Orleans Saints
Predicted Record: 9-8
Strength of Schedule: 31st overall (26th home, 32nd away)
>> READ: New Orleans Saints Full 2023 Schedule
The New Orleans Saints hate rebuilding more than a young child hates vegetables, so they signed QB Derek Carr this offseason, further kicking the can on the impending teardown. The move from Andy Dalton to Carr isn’t actually an upgrade, as Dalton quietly had the sixth-highest yards per attempt in the NFL last season and the ninth-highest overall passer rating. On offense, RB Alvin Kamara’s suspension looms large, and the team needs a clean bill of health from WR Michael Thomas. Expecting this team to run away with the division because of Carr and star receiver Chris Olave is a tall and unreasonable task. The Saints have an aging defense, headlined by the soon-to-be 34-year-old defensive end Cameron Jordan and cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The Saints are more lucky than good as they’re the same tier of team as the Patriots, who project to finish fourth in the much tougher AFC East.
Atlanta Falcons
Predicted Record: 9-8
Strength of Schedule: 32nd overall (32nd home, 27th away)
>> READ: Atlanta Falcons Full 2023 Schedule
The Atlanta Falcons are entertaining the Desmond Ridder experience at quarterback for much of, if not the entire, 2023 season. Last year’s third-round pick showed little to convince anyone that he’s the obvious future of this franchise. However, Ridder will be surrounded by one of the better offensive lines, along with an elite group of skill position players in RB Bijan Robinson (scouting report), WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts. Depth is an issue, though Ridder’s performance will be the biggest help or hindrance to this team overall. The defense allowed the eighth most passing yards and 10th most rushing yards in 2022, but signing free agent safety Jessie Bates should help, and A.J. Terrell and former Lions third overall pick Jeff Okudah have the potential to be one of the NFL’s top cornerback duos. This team should finish middle of the pack on offense and defense, which is enough to compete for the NFC South crown.
Carolina Panthers
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: 29th overall (31st home, 16th away)
>> READ: Carolina Panthers Full 2023 Schedule
The Carolina Panthers were feisty at times in 2022, and now they have first-overall pick Bryce Young (scouting report) as the new face of the franchise at quarterback. He’s surrounded by a good offensive line, but a large collection of mediocre skill players who should do little to help Young with his acclimation to the NFL. The defense is capable but unspectacular, and this team should be a tough watch unless Young can put up a Justin Herbert-type rookie season — unlikely when Thielen turns 33 in August and is the team’s presumptive WR1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted Record: 5-12
Strength of Schedule: 24th overall (21st home, 24th away)
>> READ: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Full 2023 Schedule
One of the NFL’s most disappointing teams from 2022 lost QB Tom Brady and has made several offseason moves indicating they are in full tank mode. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask is possibly the NFL’s worst quarterback room, and Mayfield likely holds back WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Last season's 32nd-ranked run game again should be hard to watch. The defense is no longer the run-stopping force it once was, and a good secondary unfortunately will do little to prevent this team from finishing in the basement. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the current frontrunners in betting markets to get next year’s No. 1 pick, and because they won the division last season they have the toughest schedule among their division mates in 2023.
NFC East Win Projections
Philadelphia Eagles
Predicted Record: 11-6
Strength of Schedule: 13th overall (17th home, 11th away)
>> READ: Philadelphia Eagles Full 2023 Schedule
The Philadelphia Eagles did an excellent job this offseason of keeping their roster filled with premium talent. On offense, QB Jalen Hurts is an MVP candidate with one of the better supporting casts in the league. On defense, the Eagles kept both starting cornerbacks and re-fortified their front four through the draft. On the downside, Philadelphia lost their offensive and defensive coordinators along with a number of high-quality veterans such as guard Isaac Seumalo and DT Javon Hargrave. The Eagles' schedule is manageable, but it’s more difficult than the cakewalk they enjoyed last season. Philadelphia is well positioned to mitigate its losses, but this is a different team than it was last year in many ways.
Dallas Cowboys
Predicted Record: 10-7
Strength of Schedule: 8th overall (16th home, 4th away)
>> READ: Dallas Cowboys Full 2023 Schedule
The Dallas Cowboys did not have an awe-inspiring draft, but they still improved this offseason. The addition of speedster Brandin Cooks gives QB Dak Prescott’s offense a new dimension at wide receiver. On defense, Stephon Gilmore is a considerable upgrade at cornerback. Dallas improved its roster, but the NFC East is the most competitive division in the conference, and the Cowboys have the eighth-toughest schedule. Coach Mike McCarthy is taking over the offense, which could be a positive or a negative depending on who you ask. Ultimately, we expect the Cowboys to make the playoffs and contend in the NFC.
New York Giants
Predicted Record: 8-9
Strength of Schedule: 10th overall (18th home, 5th away)
>> READ: New York Giants Full 2023 Schedule
The New York Giants are headed in the right direction with reigning Coach of the Year Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen at the controls. That said, New York is still rebuilding its roster, and it drew a much more difficult schedule this season than it had in 2022. Expect the Giants to be a better team this season, even if that results in a worse record than last due to their schedule.
Washington Commanders
Predicted Record: 6-11
Strength of Schedule: 3rd overall (5th home, 3rd away)
>> READ: Washington Commanders Full 2023 Schedule
The Washington Commanders improved their secondary and offensive line this offseason, but second-year quarterback Sam Howell is a major question mark heading into opening day. If Howell can provide even league-average quarterback play, Washington is a wild-card contender. That’s a big expectation for a fifth-round quarterback prospect entering his second season. The shaky quarterback situation, along with the absolutely brutal schedule, is the primary reason why we’re veering toward Washington falling below expectations. An ownership transition could create some short-term volatility for the whole organization as well.
AFC North Win Projections
Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted Record: 11-6
Strength of Schedule: 18th overall (20th home, 20th away)
>> READ: Cincinnati Bengals Full 2023 Schedule
Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals are a perennial contender in the AFC. The addition of left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who shut down Bengals edge Trey Hendrickson in the AFC Championship last season, elevates Cincinnati's already improving offensive line. You could argue this is the best supporting cast Burrow has had on offense as a pro. The Bengals defense is well coached, but they lost their best player in Atlanta-bound safety Jessie Bates. Even if Cincinnati’s defense slides a little due to the loss of Bates, a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule is an advantage for a contender in a tough division.
Baltimore Ravens
Predicted Record: 9-8
Strength of Schedule: 14th overall (14th home, 17th away)
>> READ: Baltimore Ravens Full 2023 Schedule
The Baltimore Ravens' win total was 8.5 games before QB Lamar Jackson re-signed; it’s jumped to 9.5 since his record contract. Our record projection sits in between those two figures. On the positive side, Baltimore has been among the most reliable teams in the league for more than a decade. Jackson is a former MVP, and Baltimore is supplying him with the deepest group of pass catchers he’s ever played with. Baltimore also is implementing a much different offensive system that could go through some early growing pains. The Ravens' secondary is thinner than it has been in years and they don’t exactly have an imposing front four on defense. We expect Baltimore to be a highly competitive team that’s right in the thick of the playoff race. If Jackson plays well in the new system, Baltimore’s ceiling is much higher than nine wins.
Cleveland Browns
Predicted Record: 9-8
Strength of Schedule: 17th overall (7th home, 28th away)
>> READ: Cleveland Browns Full 2023 Schedule
The success or failure of the Cleveland Browns boils down to which version of Deshaun Watson leads the offense this season. If it's the Watson from before his off-field incidents caused him to miss nearly two seasons, the Browns are a title contender. If the Watson we saw at the end of last season is the new reality, Cleveland could finish at the bottom of the AFC North. We are more bullish than not on what Watson can do, which is why we project Cleveland to slightly exceed expectations.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted Record: 8-9
Strength of Schedule: 21st overall (13th home, 29th away)
>> READ: Pittsburgh Steelers Full 2023 Schedule
The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers finished with fewer than eight wins was back in 2003. Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, and the Steelers have not had a losing record since. Those aren’t typos. Pittsburgh enters the season with a top-10 defense and an improved offensive line. The Steelers' success this season ultimately boils down to how much of a step forward second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett can take. If the Steelers were in the NFC South, we’d like them to win that division. Since they are in the AFC North and the loaded AFC as a whole, we expect Pittsburgh to be a fringe wild card contender.
AFC West Win Projections
Kansas City Chiefs
Predicted Record: 12-5
Strength of Schedule: 4th overall (1st home, 21st away)
>> READ: Kansas City Chiefs Full 2023 Schedule
Last year’s Super Bowl winner is still the team to beat, as coach Andy Reid, QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce demonstrated that a fortified offensive line could mitigate the loss of WR Tyreek Hill. The schedule is brutal, but the Kansas City Chiefs' offense is the one in the NFL that is truly matchup-proof. The defense is headlined by Chris Jones, who has taken Aaron Donald’s place as the most disruptive defensive tackle in the NFL. This defense struggled in pass coverage to begin 2022, before rounding into form and becoming a league-average unit. After five consecutive seasons with at least 12 wins, 2023 should bring the streak to six.
Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted Record: 9-8
Strength of Schedule: 9th overall (3rd home, 25th away)
>> READ: Los Angeles Chargers Full 2023 Schedule
The injury bug hampered this team and finishing 10-7 last season was a big accomplishment. Receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, left tackle Rashawn Slater, edge Joey Bosa, cornerback J.C. Jackson and hybrid safety Derwin James all missed multiple games due to injury, and quarterback Justin Herbert battled broken ribs early in the season. On paper, the Los Angeles Chargers boast a top-5 offense and top-10 defense, but inconsistency and a tough schedule likely force them into wild card contention again.
Denver Broncos
Predicted Record: 8-9
Strength of Schedule: 11th overall (12th home, 10th away)
>> READ: Denver Broncos Full 2023 Schedule
QB Russell Wilson was dealt the short end of the stick last season. His head coach was incompetent and fired with two games left in the season, the offensive line under-performed, his top two running backs were cut or injured, and his top four receivers all missed significant time due to injury. Insert new coach Sean Payton, the architect behind Drew Brees and those high-powered Saints offenses, and there is renewed optimism for the Denver Broncos. The pass defense was incredibly stingy, but overall, this projects to be a slightly above-average to middle-of-the-pack unit.
Las Vegas Raiders
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: 7th overall (6th home, 6th away)
>> READ: Las Vegas Raiders Full 2023 Schedule
QB Jimmy Garoppolo was run out of San Francisco, struggles to stay healthy and is a downgrade from Derek Carr. TE Darren Waller is a New York Giant. This offense’s success relies heavily on WR Davante Adams, who turns 31 in December, and RB Josh Jacobs, whose 393 touches led the NFL, and represent a Herculean effort unlikely to be repeated. The Las Vegas Raiders defense features an elite pass rush, headlined by Maxx Crosby, Chandler Jones and 2023 first-round pick Tyree Wilson (scouting report). The pass defense again should be among the league’s worst. The Raiders won only six games last season, and this year’s murderer’s row of a schedule should ensure they finish in the division basement in 2023.
AFC South Win Projections
Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted Record: 10-7
Strength of Schedule: 26th overall (15th home, 32nd away)
>> READ: Jacksonville Jaguars Full 2023 Schedule
QB Trevor Lawrence is an MVP candidate heading into 2023 and is the biggest difference-maker for the Jacksonville Jaguars in this division. Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram form one of the NFL’s best skill position groups, and the offensive line should withstand the six-game suspension of tackle Cam Robinson because the Jaguars drafted Anton Harrison (scouting report) near the end of Round 1 in the 2023 NFL Draft. The defense has several intriguing young pieces, and a step forward from Travon Walker — last year’s No. 1 pick — could help this team become a true Super Bowl threat. The Jaguars should sleepwalk to a division title in this weak division, and they have by far the easiest schedule among the NFL’s best teams.
Tennessee Titans
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: 23rd overall (11th home, 30th away)
>> READ: Tennessee Titans Full 2023 Schedule
QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry and WR Treylon Burks will need to become superheroes to help this team overcome a bottom-tier offensive line and a slew of practice squad receivers taking up the remaining spots on the depth chart. No team allowed more passing yards last season, and head coach Mike Vrabel’s magic might wear out in 2023. The Tennessee Titans currently project to finish second, but they are a sneaky candidate to pick first overall next year if Tannehill gets injured and 2023 second-round pick Will Levis (scouting report) is thrust into starting.
Indianapolis Colts
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: 30th overall (29th home, 26th away)
>> READ: Indianapolis Colts Full 2023 Schedule
The Indianapolis Colts had a great draft, getting quarterback Anthony Richardson (scouting report) with the fourth pick. He is the most athletic quarterback in history and also sports a cannon for an arm. While the future may be bright, he only started one season at Florida and should experience growing pains in his first year as a starter. The offensive line is hopefully around league average, but RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman don't have enough star power to bring optimism for the 2023 season. The defense is around league average, but this won’t be enough to counterbalance what should be one of the NFL’s least reliable offenses.
Houston Texans
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: 27th overall (28th home, 22nd away)
>> READ: Houston Texans Full 2023 Schedule
Houston Texans fans should expect major improvement from 2022, as they added two of the top 3 picks in the draft, selecting quarterback C.J. Stroud (scouting report) and edge Will Anderson (scouting report). While Stroud will play behind a good offensive line, this team sports the NFL’s worst receiver group. Stroud played with the best receiver group in college football last season, so this is a monumental downgrade in his supporting cast. The run defense was non-existent in 2022, but the pass defense was roughly league average, despite 2022 first-round pick Derek Stingley playing in only nine games at cornerback. After winning three games in 2022, the Texans should win six or seven in 2023, and this season will be all about easing Stroud’s transition to the NFL.
AFC East Win Projections
Buffalo Bills
Predicted Record: 11-6
Strength of Schedule: 2nd overall (8th home, 1st away)
>> READ: Buffalo Bills Full 2023 Schedule
If any team is capable of handling a difficult schedule, it’s QB Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Last year’s second-highest-scoring team drafted athletic TE Dalton Kincaid (scouting report) in the first round, and its red zone offense is too big for any defense to properly handle, as WR Gabe Davis, TE Dawson Knox and RB Damien Harris provide more big bodies. Superstar WR Stefon Diggs has averaged 113 receptions, 1,396 yards and 10 TDs during his three-year Bills tenure. The defense has few stars but many useful players, and while they are unlikely to replicate last year’s success of allowing the second-fewest points per game they should remain a well above average unit. A Super Bowl victory is the expectation in 2023.
New York Jets
Predicted Record: 10-7
Strength of Schedule: 6th overall (4th home, 14th away)
>> READ: New York Jets Full 2023 Schedule
Aaron Rodgers remains an elite quarterback, and not having to suffer through nine Zach Wilson starts in 2023 should bring a smile to any New York Jets fan’s face. RB Breece Hall should return early in 2023 from injury, and WR Garrett Wilson is a star. The rest of the offense is comprised of solid pieces, and the offensive line’s success will hinge on the health of tackle Mekhi Becton, who has played in only one game during the past two seasons. The defense allowed the third-fewest passing yards last year, and young cornerback Sauce Gardner is already the NFL’s best at this position after only one season. Rodgers paired with a top-5 defense makes the Jets legitimate Super Bowl contenders, despite playing in a loaded division.
Miami Dolphins
Predicted Record: 9-8
Strength of Schedule: 5th overall (10th home, 2nd away)
>> READ: Miami Dolphins Full 2023 Schedule
Tua Tagovailoa was the NFL’s most efficient quarterback when healthy last season, and much of the Miami Dolphins' success rests on the health of his brain after multiple scary concussions. WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the most uncoverable receiver duo in NFL history. Third-round rookie RB Devon Achane (scouting report) was a track star in college, adding more speed to what was already the league's fastest offense. This team added All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey in the offseason, and they now sport one of the NFL’s best secondaries. Despite projecting to finish third in this division, the Dolphins are a top-10 overall team on paper and are very live for a wild card berth, despite a hellish schedule and sharing a division with Allen and Rodgers.
New England Patriots
Predicted Record: 7-10
Strength of Schedule: 1st overall (2nd home, 8th away)
>> READ: New England Patriots Full 2023 Schedule
Facing the NFL’s toughest schedule — we have ranked 10 of their 17 opponents as top-9 teams in the league — the New England Patriots confidently project to be the worst team in the AFC East. QB Mac Jones has almost nothing on offense surrounding him, as JuJu Smith-Schuster replaces Jakobi Meyers as the team’s top receiver. The defense is anchored by Matt Judon on the edge, and 2023 first-round pick Christian Gonzalez (scouting report) will help the secondary. This team would be a threat to win the NFC South, but in this division, with this schedule, Patriots fans should expect a painful 2023 season.
