Analysis
11/15/22
6 min read
NFL Week 11 Defensive Efficiency Rankings
This past week included insane games highlighted by game-changing plays on the defensive side of the ball. The Vikings had four turnovers in their overtime win over the Bills, the Packers' defense turned the Cowboys over on downs in overtime, and even the sieve that is the Lions' defense made a game-changing pick-six in Chicago. Big defensive plays like these dramatically swing games' expected outcomes, which is reflected by a swing in EPA.
Defensive Efficiency Rankings Explained
This season, we’ve taken a weekly temperature on the efficiency of each offense and defense. This article will once again check in on how each NFL defense ranks in EPA/Play. If you’re unfamiliar with EPA, it stands for expected points added and is simply a way to measure whether or not a play brought a team closer to scoring.
For example, it’s easy to understand that a gain of five yards on fourth-and-4 is good, whereas a gain of five yards on fourth-and-6 is bad, and EPA can contextualize that in a way that net yards cannot.
To put into context the worth of a big turnover, another example would be a quarterback throwing a pick-six on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1-yard line. Conventional wisdom would say that was a 14-point swing – because we expected the offense to score a touchdown in that situation – and EPA would reflect roughly that.
T-1. Denver Broncos
EPA/Play = -0.16
Last Week = 1
T-1. New England Patriots
EPA/Play = -0.16
Last Week = 2
3. New York Jets
EPA/Play = -0.14
Last Week = 3
4. Philadelphia Eagles
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = T-4
5. Buffalo Bills
EPA/Play = -0.11
Last Week = T-4
T-6. Indianapolis Colts
EPA/Play = -0.10
Last Week = 7
T-6. San Francisco 49ers
EPA/Play = -0.10
Last Week = 9
The 49ers' defense rebounded after allowing a 32-yard touchdown pass on the Chargers' first drive by allowing only three more field goals and no points in the second half. They held the Chargers to -0.43 EPA/Play and a 15.4% positive play percentage through the air, their best of the season. Talanoa Hufanga is quickly becoming one of the most productive safeties in the NFL, adding another interception that ties him for third in the league.
T-8. Dallas Cowboys
EPA/Play = -0.09
Last Week = T-4
T-8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EPA/Play = -0.09
Last Week = 8
T-10. Cincinnati Bengals
EPA/Play = -0.07
Last Week = T-10
T-10. Washington Commanders
EPA/Play = -0.07
Last Week = T-10
12. Tennessee Titans
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-13
13. Green Bay Packers
EPA/Play = -0.05
Last Week = T-13
T-14. Minnesota Vikings
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-17
After allowing 24 points in the first half, the Vikings tightened up and allowed only six more points for the remainder of the game. The interception by Patrick Peterson in the end zone as the Bills were driving was the game's turning point, as craziness ensued. The “fall on the ball n’ score” and game-winning interception by Peterson in overtime were both massive plays that can galvanize the Vikings' defense for the rest of the year. Za’Darius Smith has also been playing very well lately, as he accounted for seven pressures against the Bills. That bumps his total to 40, which is good for second in the league. He is also up to 9.5 sacks, which is tied for second.
T-14. Seattle Seahawks
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-13
T-16. Jacksonville Jaguars
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = 12
T-16. Los Angeles Rams
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-13
Nothing seems to be going right for the Rams after suffering another loss, this time to the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals. The Rams' defense surrendered 27 points and allowed Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins to go for more than 90 receiving yards. Overall, they are struggling to get pressure on the quarterback, ranking dead last in pressure percentage at 21.5%. The magic seems to be lost from their Super Bowl run last year, and it may take more than superhero Aaron Donald to get them back into contention.
T-16. New Orleans Saints
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-17
T-16. New York Giants
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = 19
T-20. Carolina Panthers
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-24
T-20. Pittsburgh Steelers
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-26
The return of T.J. Watt ignited a lockdown performance against the Saints as the Steelers' defense allowed only 10 points, with all of them coming in the second quarter. They also allowed the fewest yards they had all season and intercepted Andy Dalton twice. With Watt back in the fold, the pass rush should improve, and it has room to do so. The Steelers currently sit 30th in pressure percentage and 26th in sack percentage.
T-22. Arizona Cardinals
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-26
T-22. Baltimore Ravens
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-20
T-22. Kansas City Chiefs
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-20
T-25. Chicago Bears
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = T-20
T-25. Los Angeles Chargers
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = T-24
T-25. Miami Dolphins
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = T-28
The Dolphins' defense held Nick Chubb to his second-lowest rushing total of the season in a 39-17 win over the Browns. It also accounted for 29 pressures, which was the team’s second-highest of the season. Jaelan Phillips is now third in the league in pressures but has only 3.5 sacks. Look for him to have a more significant impact now that Bradley Chubb is in the fold to go along with his high-pressure total.
T-28. Cleveland Browns
EPA/Play = 0.03
Last Week = T-20
T-28. Houston Texans
EPA/Play = 0.03
Last Week = T-28
T-30. Atlanta Falcons
EPA/Play = 0.07
Last Week = 31
T-30. Las Vegas Raiders
EPA/Play = 0.07
Last Week = 30
32. Detroit Lions
EPA/Play = 0.11
Last Week = 32
James Weaver contributed to this report.
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