Rankings

NFL Week 11 Offensive Efficiency Rankings

Despite the NFL rules being continually tilted in offenses’ favor, 2022 has been a down year for offensive production. There are not a lot of teams consistently playing good offensive football, as just seven offenses are averaging a positive EPA/play thus far. To put that into perspective, 12 teams finished with a positive EPA/play in 2021.

The league-wide average EPA/play is down just slightly, but it would seem this is an instance of a rising tide lifting all boats, with the top offenses buoying the NFL average a bit.

Offensive Efficiency Rankings Explained

This season, we’ve taken a weekly temperature on the efficiency of each offense and defense. This article will once again check in on how each NFL defense ranks in EPA/Play. If you’re unfamiliar with EPA, it stands for expected points added and is simply a way to measure whether or not a play brought a team closer to scoring.

For example, it’s easy to understand that a gain of five yards on fourth-and-4 is good, whereas a gain of five yards on fourth-and-6 is bad, and EPA can contextualize that in a way that net yards cannot. 

To put into context the worth of a big turnover, another example would be a quarterback throwing a pick-six on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1-yard line. Conventional wisdom would say that was a 14-point swing – because we expected the offense to score a touchdown in that situation – and EPA would reflect roughly that. 

1. Kansas City Chiefs

EPA/Play = 0.13

Last Week = 1

The Chiefs are once again in a league of their own. Despite losing Tyreek Hill, their EPA/Play is the highest it’s been since Mahomes’ first season as a starter. Travis Kelce ranks second in receiving Total Points earned (27.4), and JuJu Smith-Schuster has enjoyed a renaissance year, ranking 18th in Total Points earned (14).

2. Philadelphia Eagles

EPA/Play = 0.07

Last Week = 2

3. Buffalo Bills

EPA/Play = 0.06

Last Week = 3

Through the first seven weeks of the season, Josh Allen ranked seventh in passing Total Points/play. In the past three weeks, he ranks just 24th and has thrown six interceptions. The preseason Super Bowl favorites are on a two-game losing skid and are no longer 1st in the AFC East.

4. Miami Dolphins

EPA/Play = 0.05

Last Week = T-5

Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike McDaniel are in rarified air right now. The Dolphins’ passing attack’s boom rate is 27.1%, which ranks fifth since 2016 behind the 2018 Chiefs, the 2019 49ers, the 2018 Rams and the 2016 Falcons. Needless to say, McDaniel was on staff in San Francisco and Atlanta for those respective years. It will be interesting to see if Tua Tagovailoa can maintain this level of production, or if he has a falling from grace like Jimmy Garoppolo, but for now, Miami is extremely fun to watch.

5. Baltimore Ravens

EPA/Play = 0.03

Last Week = 4

6. Seattle Seahawks

EPA/Play = 0.02

Last Week = T-5

7. Las Vegas Raiders

EPA/Play = 0.01

Last Week = 8

T-8. Cincinnati Bengals

EPA/Play = 0.00

Last Week = 9

T-8. Cleveland Browns

EPA/Play = 0.00

Last Week = T-5

T-10. Jacksonville Jaguars

EPA/Play = -0.01

Last Week = T-10

T-10. New York Giants

EPA/Play = -0.01

Last Week = 12

T-12. San Francisco 49ers

EPA/Play = -0.02

Last Week = T-13

T-12. Detroit Lions

EPA/Play = -0.02

Last Week = T-15

T-14. Arizona Cardinals

EPA/Play = -0.03

Last Week = T-15

T-14. Minnesota Vikings

EPA/Play = -0.03

Last Week = T-13

T-14. Atlanta Falcons

EPA/Play = -0.03

Last Week = T-10

T-17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

EPA/Play = -0.04

Last Week = 20

T-17. Dallas Cowboys

EPA/Play = -0.04

Last Week = T-15

T-17. Chicago Bears

EPA/Play = -0.04

Last Week = 21

Justin Fields has seemingly turned a corner in the last three weeks. He ranks just 13th in Total Points/pass (0.16) over that span, but his 0.57 Total Points/rush ranks first in the league. When you factor in scrambles, he’s averaging 0.39 Total Points/dropback. There’s still room for improvement, but the game appears to be slowing down for him, and that should be encouraging for Bears fans.

T-20. Los Angeles Chargers

EPA/Play = -0.06

Last Week = T-15

T-20. Green Bay Packers

EPA/Play = -0.06

Last Week = T-22

T-20. New Orleans Saints

EPA/Play = -0.06

Last Week = T-15

T-23. New York Jets

EPA/Play = -0.09

Last Week = T-22

T-23. Tennessee Titans

EPA/Play = -0.09

Last Week = T-22

25. Carolina Panthers

EPA/Play = -0.10

Last Week = T-26

T-26. Pittsburgh Steelers

EPA/Play = -0.11

Last Week = T-28

The Kenny Pickett endeavor has been an abject failure thus far. It remains unclear how or why he got drafted in the first round, and he’s looked exceptionally bad for a fifth-year senior who was billed as pro-ready. He ranks 35th out of 40 quarterbacks in passing Total Points/play (0.01). Only four quarterbacks in the Total Points era had worse rookie seasons: Jared Goff, DeShone Kizer, Paxton Lynch and Josh Rosen. If the season ended today, the Steelers would have the 10th overall pick in the draft. Quarterback is absolutely the top need for Pittsburgh.

T-26. New England Patriots

EPA/Play = -0.11

Last Week = 25

T-28. Washington Commanders

EPA/Play = -0.12

Last Week = T-28

T-28. Houston Texans

EPA/Play = -0.12

Last Week = T-30

30. Los Angeles Rams

EPA/Play = -0.13

Last Week = T-26

31. Denver Broncos

EPA/Play = -0.14

Last Week = T-30

The Broncos are 1-5 in their last six games and have failed to score 20 or more points in seven of their nine games. They rank 244th out of 256 offenses in EPA/play since 2015. They’re completely dysfunctional, and the Russell Wilson trade is arguably the worst trade in NFL history. If that wasn’t bad enough, his contract is virtually untradeable and they’re stuck with him until 2026 when his dead cap hit would be a mere $31.2M. Nathaniel Hackett, however, could be a one-and-done.

32. Indianapolis Colts

EPA/Play = -0.15

Last Week = 32

Prepared by Bryce Rossler.

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