Analysis

4/20/23

5 min read

Jimmy Johnson's Draft Trade Value Chart Set Standard, But Is Clearly Outdated

By Joe Banner

Former NFL Executive
Aug 5, 2022; Canton, OH, USA; The 2022 NFL Draft cards of first-round picks Travon Walker (Jacksonville Jaguars), Aidan Hutchinson (Detroit Lions), Derek Stingley (Texans) and Ahmad Gardner (Jets) on display at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

When NFL Draft Day trades are made, charts assigning numerical values to draft positions often are employed to evaluate the worth of picks. There are several out there, but only one is — and has been — used most by NFL clubs.

That would be the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart that the Hall of Fame coach devised in the 1990s.

It was as brilliant as it was groundbreaking, assigning the largest numerical values to the highest picks, and it was used by everyone. And for good reason: It made life simple when evaluating the fairness of trades involving draft picks. You knew when you were on the phone talking about a possible deal that you and your potential trade partner were looking at the same chart.

It was a game-changer then. But it is obsolete now.

OK, not completely. Johnson’s trade value chart was created three decades ago in a vastly different world order. It made sense when the top half of the first-round commanded gazillion-dollar contracts, but that changed with the 2011 collective bargaining agreement. It created a rookie pay scale that dramatically affected compensation at the top half of the first round and moderately affected it at the bottom.

But it did more than that. It diminished the value of Johnson’s trade chart, too.

That’s because it was created nearly 20 years prior to the 2011 CBA when first-round picks – especially No. 1 choices – gained monstrous deals before playing a down. In 2007, for instance, the Raiders signed quarterback JaMarcus Russell, the first overall choice, to a six-year, $68 million deal, making him one of the NFL’s highest-paid players. Three years later, the St. Louis Rams made No. 1 pick Sam Bradford the richest rookie ever with a $76 million deal.

That ended with the 2011 CBA, and I should know. I was the only person outside of people who worked for the league office who was one of its negotiators. By modifying compensation, especially at the top end of the first round, the CBA allowed teams to spend more on veteran players instead of having to use that money to write off lost cap charges if they missed on a top-15 choice.

That was a big deal, and it should be factored into a trade value chart. And it has been … except not by Jimmy Johnson.

Jimmy Johnson and Jerry Jones

Johnson's Draft Trade Value Chart

The value of every pick in the draft to help teams quickly evaluate the fairness of trades (does not include compensatory picks), as developed by Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson in the early 1990s:

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2
2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8
3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4
4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13
5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6
6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2
7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8
8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4
9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11
10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6
11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2
12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8
13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4
14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9
15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6
16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2

 

I’m not bashing his chart. It was brilliant. But it’s outmoded. In fact, when I was with the Philadelphia Eagles, we devised our own trade value chart. It was based on what we thought variations should be with cap and cash implications being so different for first-round picks from what they were before 2011.

It was invaluable to us. We didn’t make a move or trade we thought wasn’t at least reasonably close in value to what our chart said, and we shared it with no one.

While it varied drastically from Jimmy’s at the top of the first round and less substantially at the bottom, it wasn’t all that different from the second round on. I know other teams have their own charts, too, factoring in things that changed with the 2011 CBA. But, in our case, we had positions we cared about more than others. So that could affect what our chart advised vs. what we actually did. What I’m saying is we sometimes deviated from it, depending on how anxious we were to complete a deal.

Let’s say, for instance, we thought about trading up for a difference-making pass rusher. Then, we might consciously overpay if we believed he could make a significant impact. By the same token, we might underpay if we were looking at a guard or safety at the bottom of the round. If you lost out on one or the other, we believed you could find another in the second or third rounds. So we could fluctuate on how adamant or immovable we were with our chart depending on how important we thought a certain position was.

The bottom line is this: Times have changed with draft trades, and charts should, too, because some basic, obvious things have changed since the Jimmy Johnson chart was created. Honestly, I don’t think anyone should be using it today because so much of what it was based on is different. If they haven’t already, teams should be developing new charts or, at the very least, have their own revised version of Jimmy’s chart.

And if they don’t? Then they’re just lazy and not thinking strategically. It’s that simple.

Joe Banner is a former front office executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns. He was part of an Eagles franchise that made a Super Bowl and played in four NFC Championship Games. Follow him on Twitter at @JoeBanner13

Tags: NFL Draft

Joe Banner

Former NFL Executive

Joe Banner is a former front office executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns who was last in the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons as a consultant in 2015. While in the NFL, Banner was part of an Eagles franchise that made a Super Bowl and played in four NFC Championship games.

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