Analysis
5/1/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Draft: Temper Expectations For Round 1 Draft Picks
There always is a lot of enthusiasm and excitement for an NFL team's first-round draft pick, especially from the fan base. But don't put too many expectations on that young man, especially early on.
Two things happened during the first night of the 2023 NFL Draft: The first is the garnering of talent by clubs who have worked hard to analyze these guys, grade them, put the board up and make the appropriate decisions for their clubs. The second is a television show. And the television show is designed to entertain and to put the best face on these players.
Historically, 40 percent of first-round rookies fail to help the team that drafted them. I won't mention any names, but you can read them off in the last five years, and that's historically true. So that's No. 1.
No. 2, every rookie in the NFL struggles. I hate to use this statistic because everybody knows how much I revere Peyton Manning and what a good friend he is and how much he's done for all of us who were fortunate enough to be around him. He struggled badly in his rookie year. He still holds the record for interceptions for a rookie.
It happens to everyone. And so to expect these fellows to come in, walk through the door and be instant successes is an unreal expectation. To expect them to fill a need in anything but a part-time role is an unrealistic expectation.
Two exceptions are Bijan Robinson, selected by the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8, and Jahmyr Gibbs, taken by the Detroit Lions at No. 12.
The rushers will likely help and get on the field sooner than others simply because that's one skill. So, they may make an impact quicker than other positions, but that doesn't mean the others are not going to be good.
Running backs also transition quickly to the NFL once they learn the speed of the game, how to protect themselves and protect the ball. And the two running backs that were taken in the first round are good players. I would expect them to contribute pretty soon.
But the others all take work. That's the nature of the game. Keep in mind the first thing you should do as a club is stay true to your board. You spent all this time, all this money and all this effort putting that board up there. Don't stray from it now.
Bill Polian is a former front office executive and a six-time Executive of the Year award winner who won Super Bowl XLI with the Indianapolis Colts. Polian’s career as an executive earned him an induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2015.
