2023 NFL Draft: 7 Prospects With Boom-or-Bust Potential
Analysis 4/7/23
Every NFL Draft has players who fall into the boom-or-bust category, and the 2023 NFL Draft is no different. These seven players are full of ability. Any of them could end up being "boom" picks, but each has shown enough concerning signs they could be busts as well.
7 Boom-or-Bust Prospects
QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Will Levis (scouting report) will probably be drafted high in the first round.
One thing was clear after seeing him at his pro day and watching all of his tape from 2021 and 2022: There is no question about his arm strength. There’s also no question he struggled because of offensive line issues; he got hit a lot. Kentucky also had a young group of receivers.
After seeing how well he played in 2021, the hope was he would make a jump in 2022, and that didn’t happen. His statistics dipped a bit. He threw for 400 fewer yards and five fewer touchdowns, but he completed 65 percent of his passes. Levis played through injuries to his foot, finger and shoulder.
Up close, his quick release and powerful arm were apparent. There is no doubt he can make all of the NFL throws.
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However, his decision-making and his accuracy are concerns. Why does he make some of the throws he did? His lack of touch is what bothers me the most. Everything is a 90 mph fastball. During his pro day, when he tried to put touch on underneath routes or intermediate routes over the top of linebackers, the ball wobbled, and his accuracy fell off. Unless he’s throwing a fastball, his accuracy is questionable.
Those factors are why, out of all of the top quarterbacks in this draft, he may be the one with the most bust potential.
DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
Jalen Carter (scouting report) may be one of the most dominant defensive tackles in the draft in a long time. So why could he potentially bust? When he wants to play, no one at the collegiate level can block him in the running or the passing game. However, there are at least three significant concerns with him.
One obvious issue on tape is he doesn’t play hard every snap.
Teams are also likely asking themselves what type of guy he is off the field. How many hours of manpower and how many resources are teams going to expend to ensure Carter will be the player seen on tape? It starts with his legal issues, which seem to be resolved. Still, teams have to make sure those are checked out thoroughly.
It was also disappointing that Carter couldn't finish his pro day workout — his biggest stage — after showing up nine pounds overweight. You would think a guy with this type of talent would want to put on a show for the NFL teams, but he failed miserably when the attention was on him.
The third major concern surfaced this week, and I don’t know if it’s true, but his agent said Carter would not visit any team drafting outside the top 10. Well, if my team has the No. 12 pick or the No. 14 pick, and I’m thinking about moving up into the top 10, and the player does not want to come to visit us because we are out of the top 10 right now, then why would we take him if he drops to us?
There are just too many questions — not about Carter’s ability because that is obviously abundant — but about all of these other areas.
LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson
Trenton Simpson (scouting report) may be one of the most athletic linebackers I have seen. He can run and cover, and they rushed him off the edge and through the A gap. He has all the athletic skills, speed and change of direction you want in a linebacker.
One concern with him is his instincts. There is always some hesitation until he sees something, but he’s so athletic he can recover and get to where he needs to be. A key question for him — we won’t know the answer — is how he performs when he meets with teams and has to answer their questions on the whiteboard. Does he understand the scheme? How quickly can he pick up things?
Another concern is whether he can play multiple positions. In today’s game, a linebacker must play the Sam, Mike and Will positions. There’s no question Simpson has the athleticism, speed and power to be everything you want in a three-down linebacker. The key for him will be whether he's instinctive enough to take that next step in the NFL.
WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
Jalin Hyatt (scouting report) had a breakout game against Alabama last season. His athleticism and speed were obvious, and he scored five touchdowns against an NFL-caliber defense.
Why hadn’t he done that before? He has all of these God-given gifts, but he’s never utilized them like that or produced like that before. He wasn’t on NFL teams’ radar until after that Alabama game, and suddenly everyone wanted to know about him. Give Hyatt credit; he continued to produce after that game in October.
Maybe he’s a late bloomer? Or perhaps he’s a one-year wonder? That is the discussion many NFL teams are having about him in their draft meetings. Teams will have to determine if he has the work ethic and the passion for the game. Will he do the work Monday through Saturday to get there? Or is he one of those players who is fast and can make big plays but only has done it for one year?
It’s challenging to do that in the NFL, especially against NFL corners, if he’s unwilling to do everything to be the best receiver he can be.
OT Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland
I watched Jaelyn Duncan (scouting report) in person against Minnesota in 2021, and I watched all of his tape from 2022. He may be the most gifted athlete of any left tackle in this draft class, but his energy and the effort he plays with leave a lot to be desired.
There is no way a guy with his physical abilities should ever get beat. And if he does get beat, at least make an effort to recover and get back in the play. It seems like there is a clock in his head that must go off after three or four seconds. He doesn’t finish all the time or sustain all of his blocks. If an offensive line coach can learn how to push all his buttons, Duncan would be a solid starting left tackle.
He was more competitive at the Senior Bowl, but when he moved to play right tackle one day, he struggled. It might have been foreign to him, but when he struggled, he tended to tank a little bit.
He’s a player with many gifts, but he has to be more competitive, show more fire and finish.
LB Noah Sewell, Oregon
Noah Sewell (scouting report) is a big, thick, old-school 3-4 linebacker. Think of him as a Pepper Johnson-type, between-the-tackles two-down thumper who will attack at the line of scrimmage.
Sewell can get off blocks and locate the ball. The questions are, does he have the range to go sideline to sideline and can he cover in space? He can be an effective blitzer, but it would have to be from a stack position, not the edge.
Everything I’ve heard and seen on tape indicates he has a high-football character, is smart, and plays hard. The big question is, can a linebacker with his size (6-foot-3, 250 pounds) plus some athletic and speed limitations play in an NFL that requires all defenders to operate in space?
DE Mike Morris, Michigan
Mike Morris (scouting report) has ideal size (6-foot-6, 278 pounds), but he had a marginal, at best, combine workout. He might bulk up and move inside. Morris was productive (7.5 sacks and 11 tackles for a loss), and he doesn’t have too many athletic limitations that would prevent him from becoming an NFL edge rusher.
He needs to get stronger and play with more violence. It seems like he doesn’t give that second effort all the time. If you play on the defensive line, you must have the temperament to take on double teams and combo blocks. It requires grit and toughness. I questioned Morris in those areas after watching his tape.
Each of these players has the traits to become a great player. Can they overcome some of the critical factors I cited to become boom players instead of busts?
Rick Spielman is a former general manager of the Dolphins and Vikings, and winner of the NFL Executive of the Year award by Pro Football Weekly in 2017. Follow him on Twitter @spielman_rick