What Wins Football Games in Today’s NFL?
At the end of the day, the only sure way to win a football game is by scoring more points...
Study: How the Rams Succeed Without First-Round Draft Picks
By Peter Engler, Bryan Filker, and Brian Friedland On April 29, 2021, the first round of the 86th NFL draft...
How the Top 3-4 Defenses Allocate Salary Cap Dollars
Last week, we posted an article comparing the cap structure of the best and worst 4-3 defenses in the NFL....
How the Top 4-3 Defenses Allocate Salary Cap Dollars
There are many reasons as to why some defenses perform better than others even though they run similar schemes. Personnel...
Participation Bonuses and the 17-Game Schedule
As past articles have discussed, the move to a 17-game schedule adds an additional game check for many players. However,...
Which NFL Teams Have the Biggest and Smallest WR Groups?
In the modern NFL, there are a significant variety of team-building methods and philosophies. The way offensive coaches look at...
Study: What Did NFL Fans Care About in 2020?
Words are one thing, but action is another. Many fans would love to have the ability to watch every NFL...
The 10 Best Recruiters in College Football
One of the core pillars of a successful college football program is a strong recruiting staff. While there is much...
Which Third-Year QB Is Ready to Make the ‘Josh Allen Leap?’
Entering the 2020 season, not many people expected to see Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen make such a dramatic leap....
Top NFL Coaching Hires for 2021
By Peter Engler and Robert Simpson At the end of the 2020 season, we applied a number of statistics to...
NIL Update: Policy Breakdowns for the Five States That Begin on July 1
Last week, we took a general look at how new state legislation regarding Name, Image, and Likeness is changing the landscape...
The Analytics Behind One Coach’s Very Aggressive Tactics
The new Presbyterian College football coach, Kevin Kelley, won nine Arkansas high school state championships using a unique strategy. His...
Using ASI to Project FBS Players
Prior to the NFL Draft, we introduced the Athletic Success Indicator (ASI), a metric to project performance in the NFL...
Statistical Study Suggests Second-Year QBs Are Ready to Step Up
Heading into the 2021 season, a couple of teams will be looking for their young quarterbacks to take a leap...
Data Supports the Idea of Giving Rookie Quarterbacks Time to Develop
There is often a debate about when rookie quarterbacks should start in the NFL. While the answer to this question...
Using Analytics to Predict 14 Breakout Players for 2021
Every year we see players coming out of the woodwork to play huge roles for their teams. Dolphins linebacker Andrew...
Study: Cap Allocation for Recent Super Bowl Teams vs. Rest of the NFL
One of the greatest superpowers in an NFL front office is the ability to value position groups and players correctly,...
Most Valuable Draft Picks of All Time: Defense
Earlier this week, we looked at who the most valuable offensive players have been, specifically evaluating how much excess value...
Calculating the Most Valuable Draft Picks of All Time
In building an NFL roster, the only thing that truly matters is production. If a player produces, they add value....
How Well Did Teams Address Their Needs In the NFL Draft?
The first step for every NFL team in the offseason is to assess their own roster. Where are their strengths?...
Using ASI to Determine Which Teams Had the Most Athletic Draft Class
Before the draft, we introduced the Athletic Success Indicator (ASI) and used it to find a few potential draft sleepers...
Finding Edge Rushers Among the Positional Priorities in Recent Drafts
In the most recent edition of the NFL Draft, we saw eight quarterbacks go in the first three rounds, but...
Positional Draft Review: Part 2
Following last week’s article -- “Positional Draft Review: Is the First Player Taken Always the Best?” -- there remained a...
Using ASI to Identify Some Potential NFL Draft Sleepers and Busts
Last week, we published an article on the Athletic Success Indicator (ASI), which uses prospects’ Combine and pro day testing...
Positional Draft Review: Is the First Player Taken Always the Best?
With the 2021 NFL Draft just a week away, front-office insider Mike Tannenbaum posed the following question: How often is...
Athletic Success Indicator: Using Combine Data to Predict NFL Success
The NFL Combine is one of the biggest events in the lead-up to the draft. Scouts weigh, measure and time...
Revisiting the NFL Draft Trade Chart Using Approximate Value
By Sydney Robinson Projecting NFL success from the time a player is drafted is never easy. Before we get into...
Study Suggests Second Round Is Time to Draft a Linebacker
The NFL draft is an opportunity for every team in the NFL to acquire young talent at an affordable price....
Using Approximate Value to Evaluate First-Round Draft Success
Approximate value (AV) is a method created by pro-football-reference in an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal...
Who Are the Top Under-the-Radar Assistant Coaches in College and the NFL?
By Peter Engler and Robert Simpson Over the last two weeks, we released our list of top offensive assistants and...
Who Are the Top Defensive Assistants in the NFL and College?
By Peter Engler and Robert Simpson Last week, we released our list of top offensive assistants based on specific...
Who Are the Top Offensive Assistant Coaches in the NFL and College?
By Peter Engler and Robert Simpson An assistant coach’s impact on his team can be difficult to quantify. If...
Study: What’s the Shelf Life of an NFL Defensive Coordinator?
After looking at the average tenure of an NFL offensive coordinator last week (read it here), this week we are...
Study: What’s the Shelf Life of an NFL Offensive Coordinator?
Dating back to 2000, the NFL sees just under 40% of its offensive coordinators turn over each year, to the...
Using Approximate Value to Measure Draft Success in the NFL
Drafting in the NFL is a sport unto itself: Nobody is perfect, but some people are a lot better at...
The 33rd Team’s Sydney Robinson Among NFL’s Big Data Bowl Finalists
The NFL’s Football Operations department last week announced the finalists of its fourth Big Data Bowl – its annual competition...
Who Will Be the Top Head Coaching Candidates in 2022? Here Are 10 Names to Remember
By Peter Engler and Robert Simpson The 2021 coaching carousel is in full swing and several top candidates have already...
Deep Dive: Reasons for the NFL’s Scoring Explosion in 2020
By Peter Engler and Robert Simpson The 2020 NFL season saw a record-setting offensive explosion. The 12,692 points scored was...
Using First-Round Picks on Defensive Linemen Pays Dividends
The annual NFL draft is one of the best ways for teams to acquire affordable talent. How teams draft can...
Assessing First-Round NFL Draft Picks By Approximate Value
No first-round draft pick is a sure thing. There are so many variables in play when it comes to selecting...
Study: Fourth-Down Decisions
One of the first things the analytics community discovered is that NFL teams should go for it on fourth down...
Study: Margin of Victory Weighted By Strength of Schedule
Margin of victory is a very simple statistic. The Steelers have a margin of victory of 10.3 this season, meaning...
Is Paying Top Dollar for an Offensive Line Worth the Money?
Offensive lines are the foundation of every NFL team's offense. An offensive line with chemistry and familiarity can be the...
The 7 Traits of Highly Effective NFL Playoff Teams
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler Do playoff teams have similar characteristics? With so many facets of the game, NFL...
Assessing the Value of Premier Pass Rushers in the NFL
Pass rushers have always been at a premium in the NFL. If you can get to the quarterback and disrupt...
Assessing Performance of the NFL’s New Defensive Coordinators
Last week, we took a look at how the new offensive coordinators in 2020 had their teams performing compared to...
Playoff Trait No. 3: High-Powered Passing with Solid Defense
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler This is the third cluster of teams in our study of traits associated with...
Playoff Trait No. 4: Elite Passing with Mediocre Defense
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler This is the fourth cluster of teams in our study of traits associated with...
Playoff Trait No. 6: All Defense
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler This is the sixth cluster of teams in our study of traits associated with...
Playoff Trait No. 7: Inefficient Passing and Turnovers
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler This is the seventh cluster of teams in our study of traits associated with...
Playoff Trait No. 5: Pounding the Rock with Elite Pass Rush
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler This is the fifth cluster of teams in our study of traits associated with...
Playoff Trait No. 2: Efficient Offense and Opportunistic Defense
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler This is the second cluster of teams in our study of traits associated with...
Playoff Trait No. 1: Dominant Defense and Run Game
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler This is the first cluster of teams in our study of traits associated with...
Study: Impact of Special Teams on NFL Success
By Robert Simpson and Peter Engler For NFL fans, the punter is one of the least popular players any given...
Inside the Numbers: Home-Field Advantage in the NFL
As the NFL season nears the midway point, many predictions that were made back in early September are beginning to...
Small-School College Stars From Week 8
Not only did Week 8 of college football mark the start of the Big Ten season, but the teams of...
Player Retention in the NFL
Being able to evaluate, draft and retain talent is essential when building a successful NFL franchise. Teams that continually have...
Ranking NFL Kickers By FG Percentage Over Expectation
When a kicker lines up for a field goal, what are the chances he makes the kick? It is common...
Do Defenses Really Win Championships in the NFL? (Hint: The Answer Is Bad News for the Seahawks)
We’ve all heard the age-old saying, “Defenses Win Championships,” but how true has this been for NFL teams in the...
Study: Do Great Teams Always Blow Out Bad Teams?
When a team we expect to be great matches up against a bad team, we expect a blowout, right? And...
Deep Dive: Which Cornerback Extension Was the Best Value?
Contract extensions take place year round in the NFL and this season there have been multiple cornerbacks who received extensions...
Getting to the QB Is Key to Success in the NFL
Applying pressure on the opposing quarterback is one of the most important things a team can do to win games....
Offensive Line Continuity Critical to Success in the NFL
How important is offensive line continuity in the NFL? Consider these facts about the six teams that have allowed the...