Fantasy

Wheeler’s NFL Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings

Below you’ll find my Week 15 fantasy football rankings for PPR/Half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-25 QB Rankings, top-50 RB Rankings, top-60 WR Rankings and top-18 TE Rankings. I actually submit these rankings to two different rankings competitions, one with point per game (PPR) scoring, the other Half-PPR. They are far more accurate for PPR simply because PPR scoring is less influenced by touchdowns.

When I look into weekly matchups, I only use the past five games of data. Anything that happened six weeks ago is just going to cloud our judgment. We are looking at a completely full slate with bye weeks being over, so navigating injuries might prove to be the difference maker.

Quarterback

During the past five games, the Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins have been allowing the most fantasy points to the QB position. Mike White, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and Josh Allen appear to have the best match-up in Week 15. 

Lamar Jackson (knee) likely will not be back this week and backup Tyler Huntley left Sunday’s game with a concussion but was a full participant in practice on Wednesday.

49ers QB Brock Purdy is apparently getting an MRI on Monday for an injured oblique. Purdy got hurt on the game’s second drive in Week 14 and played well afterward. He has a quick turnaround on Thursday night in Seattle.

Rank  QB Team Opp
1 Josh Allen BUF vs MIA
2 Jalen Hurts PHI @ CHI
3 Patrick Mahomes II KC @ HOU
4 Justin Herbert LAC vs TEN
5 Joe Burrow CIN @ TB
6 Dak Prescott DAL @ JAC
7 Justin Fields CHI vs PHI
8 Kirk Cousins MIN vs IND
9 Trevor Lawrence JAC vs DAL
10 Tua Tagovailoa MIA @ BUF
11 Matt Ryan IND @ MIN
12 Jared Goff DET @ NYJ
13 Geno Smith SEA vs SF
14 Deshaun Watson CLE vs BAL
15 Aaron Rodgers GB vs LAR
16 Tom Brady TB vs CIN
17 Daniel Jones NYG @ WAS
18 Ryan Tannehill TEN @ LAC
19 Brock Purdy SF @ SEA
20 Taylor Heinicke WAS vs NYG
21 Mac Jones NE @ LV
22 Andy Dalton NO vs ATL
23 Derek Carr LV vs NE
24 Desmond Ridder ATL @ NO
25 Tyler Huntley BAL @ CLE
26 Zach Wilson NYJ vs DET
27 Sam Darnold CAR vs PIT
28 Baker Mayfield LAR @ GB
29 Colt McCoy ARI @ DEN
30 Brett Rypien DEN vs ARI

Running Back

Most analysts look at fantasy points allowed when judging matchups, but for the RB position, I look at yards per carry (YPC) allowed. YPC is generally a misused metric that tells us less about running back efficiency but does give us a good indication of defensive efficiency. 

Running Backs with the best Week 13 matchups are Christian McCaffrey against the Seahawks, Najee Harris against the Panthers, J.K. Dobbins against the Browns, Brian Robinson against the Giants and Derrick Henry against the LA Chargers. 

Kenneth Walker (ankle) is not on the Seahawks’ Week 15 injury report as of Wednesday. Walker was said to be having tests on Tuesday for what Carroll called a “jammed” ankle. The Seahawks are facing the 49ers in Week 15, so I’m not forcing any of the Seahawks’ RBs into my line-up.

Rank  RB Team Opp
1 Christian McCaffrey SF @ SEA
2 Derrick Henry TEN @ LAC
3 Jonathan Taylor IND @ MIN
4 Josh Jacobs LV vs NE
5 Austin Ekeler LAC vs TEN
6 Dalvin Cook MIN vs IND
7 James Conner ARI @ DEN
8 Tony Pollard DAL @ JAC
9 Nick Chubb CLE vs BAL
10 Miles Sanders PHI @ CHI
11 Joe Mixon CIN @ TB
12 J.K. Dobbins BAL @ CLE
13 Isiah Pacheco KC @ HOU
14 Alvin Kamara NO vs ATL
15 Aaron Jones GB vs LAR
16 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS vs NYG
17 Ezekiel Elliott DAL @ JAC
18 Saquon Barkley NYG @ WAS
19 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC vs DAL
20 Zonovan Knight NYJ vs DET
21 David Montgomery CHI vs PHI
22 Rachaad White TB vs CIN
23 Najee Harris PIT @ CAR
24 D’Andre Swift DET @ NYJ
25 Jamaal Williams DET @ NYJ
26 Kenneth Walker III SEA vs SF
27 Raheem Mostert MIA @ BUF
28 Jerick McKinnon KC @ HOU
29 Antonio Gibson WAS vs NYG
30 Cam Akers LAR @ GB
31 AJ Dillon GB vs LAR
32 Samaje Perine CIN @ TB
33 Devin Singletary BUF vs MIA
34 Latavius Murray DEN vs ARI
35 D’Onta Foreman CAR vs PIT
36 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL @ NO
37 Leonard Fournette TB vs CIN
38 James Cook BUF vs MIA
39 Chuba Hubbard CAR vs PIT
40 Michael Carter NYJ vs DET
41 Rex Burkhead HOU vs KC
42 Dare Ogunbowale HOU vs KC
43 Tyler Allgeier ATL @ NO
44 Gus Edwards BAL @ CLE
45 Kareem Hunt CLE vs BAL
46 Jaylen Warren PIT @ CAR
47 Marlon Mack DEN vs ARI
48 Kyren Williams LAR @ GB
49 Kevin Harris NE @ LV
50 Joshua Kelley LAC vs TEN
51 Pierre Strong Jr. NE @ LV

During his last three games, Jamaal Williams has scored just 10.6, 9.5 and 3.7 PPR points. He’s scored a touchdown in two of those three games.

Dalvin Cook has failed to reach 10 PPR points in three of his last four games. In his previous nine games, he totaled 10 or more points in all but one. 

Miles Sanders is averaging more than one rushing touchdown and 82 rushing yards per game, during his last six games. The Eagles face a Chicago rush defense that has allowed 108 rushing yards per game, during their past five games.

Dobbins returned from injury in Week 14, and he played the most snaps (42.6% snap share) in the Ravens’ backfield (Gus Edwards was at 34%, and Kenyan Drake was at 18%). Dobbins carried the ball 15 times for 120 yards and a touchdown in a 16-14 win against the Steelers. The Ravens face a Browns defense that has allowed the fourth most PPR points-per-game, and the most yards per carry (5.6) to RBs, during the past five games.

Robinson has had more than 100 total yards in the past two games and faces a Giants defense, the same team he faced before their Week 14 bye, that has allowed the third-most PPR points per game and second-most yards-per-game, during their last five games.

We were jumping back on the Cam Akers bandwagon last week in a prime match-up. He finished the day with a 61.9% opportunity share, 12 carries, 42 yards and one TD. I am confident in starting him as an RB2/flex on Monday night in Green Bay.

Wide Receiver

I examine a few different statistics when trying to find good or bad wide receiver matchups, but yards per game and fantasy points allowed are the primary gages. 

The Texans have allowed one WR1 (top-12) performance this year, and it came back in Week 1 (Michael Pittman Jr.). It’s much more likely to be a Travis Kelce week than a Juju Smith-Schuster week when the Texans play the Chiefs this Sunday. 

Mike Evans hasn’t finished as a weekly top-30 wide receiver in PPR formats since Week 8.

Brandon Aiyuk only had a 13.6% target share in Week 14, which was his second-lowest target share since Week 1. He did get a touchdown, and Deebo Samuel will be out for a few weeks with an injury.

Rank  WR Team Opp
1 Justin Jefferson MIN vs IND
2 Ja’Marr Chase CIN @ TB
3 Tyreek Hill MIA @ BUF
4 Stefon Diggs BUF vs MIA
5 Davante Adams LV vs NE
6 CeeDee Lamb DAL @ JAC
7 A.J. Brown PHI @ CHI
8 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ NYJ
9 Keenan Allen LAC vs TEN
10 Terry McLaurin WAS vs NYG
11 Mike Williams LAC vs TEN
12 DK Metcalf SEA vs SF
13 DeAndre Hopkins ARI @ DEN
14 Tyler Lockett SEA vs SF
15 Chris Godwin TB vs CIN
16 Jaylen Waddle MIA @ BUF
17 Christian Watson GB vs LAR
18 Chris Olave NO vs ATL
19 Michael Pittman Jr. IND @ MIN
20 Amari Cooper CLE vs BAL
21 Jerry Jeudy DEN vs ARI
22 Mike Evans TB vs CIN
23 Christian Kirk JAC vs DAL
24 Brandon Aiyuk SF @ SEA
25 DeVonta Smith PHI @ CHI
26 Garrett Wilson NYJ vs DET
27 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC @ HOU
28 Zay Jones JAC vs DAL
29 Marquise Brown ARI @ DEN
30 Tee Higgins CIN @ TB
31 Diontae Johnson PIT @ CAR
32 Adam Thielen MIN vs IND
33 Gabe Davis BUF vs MIA
34 Allen Lazard GB vs LAR
35 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE vs BAL
36 DJ Moore CAR vs PIT
37 Drake London ATL @ NO
38 George Pickens PIT @ CAR
39 Joshua Palmer LAC vs TEN
40 Michael Gallup DAL @ JAC
41 Darius Slayton NYG @ WAS
42 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN @ LAC
43 Curtis Samuel WAS vs NYG
44 Jameson Williams DET @ NYJ
45 Chris Moore HOU vs KC
46 DJ Chark Jr. DET @ NYJ
47 Elijah Moore NYJ vs DET
48 Mack Hollins LV vs NE
49 Van Jefferson LAR @ GB
50 Jauan Jennings SF @ SEA
51 Parris Campbell IND @ MIN
52 Alec Pierce IND @ MIN
53 Tutu Atwell LAR @ GB
54 Nelson Agholor NE @ LV
55 Isaiah McKenzie BUF vs MIA
56 Demarcus Robinson BAL @ CLE
57 Robert Woods TEN @ LAC
58 Jahan Dotson WAS vs NYG
59 Ben Skowronek LAR @ GB
60 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC @ HOU
61 Isaiah Hodgins NYG @ WAS
62 Phillip Dorsett II HOU vs KC
63 Jakobi Meyers NE @ LV

Corey Davis left the game early in Week 14, and Elijah Moore ended up playing the second-most snaps for the Jets at wide receiver. Moore also led the team with 10 targets.

Browns’ WR Donovan Peoples-Jones saw 12 targets against Cincinnati for a 31% target share. He hadn’t seen double-digit targets in a game since Week 1. 

Without Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins, the Houston Texans wide receivers split snaps between Phillip Dorsett (52 snaps), Chris Moore (51), Amari Rodgers (34) and Jalen Camp (6).

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith has seen more than eight targets in five straight games without Dallas Goedert on the field. If Goedert returns expect Smith’s targets to dwindle again.

During his last four full games, Jerry Jeudy has averaged 19.7 PPR points per game for the Broncos.

Tight End 

During the past six weeks, you looked smart starting a TE against the Jaguars, Cardinals, Dolphins, Rams and Tennessee Titans. Tight Ends with the best matchups appear to be Dalton Schultz, Gerald Everett, Greg Dulcich, Robert Tonyan and Dawson Knox. I’m not even considering starting Tonyan though. 

David Njoku saw nine targets and a 23% target share for the Browns in Week 14. He’s had less than an 18% target share in just two of his last nine games.

Schultz had a 26% target share in Week 14, which was his second game in a row with at least a 20% target share.

Rank  TE Team Opp
1 Travis Kelce KC @ HOU
2 T.J. Hockenson MIN vs IND
3 Dalton Schultz DAL @ JAC
4 Mark Andrews BAL @ CLE
5 David Njoku CLE vs BAL
6 Greg Dulcich DEN vs ARI
7 George Kittle SF @ SEA
8 Pat Freiermuth PIT @ CAR
9 Gerald Everett LAC vs TEN
10 Dawson Knox BUF vs MIA
11 Dallas Goedert PHI @ CHI
12 Cole Kmet CHI vs PHI
13 Evan Engram JAC vs DAL
14 Taysom Hill NO vs ATL
15 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN @ LAC
16 Tyler Conklin NYJ vs DET
17 Noah Fant SEA vs SF
18 Hunter Henry NE @ LV
19 Tyler Higbee LAR @ GB
20 Austin Hooper TEN @ LAC
21 Cade Otton TB vs CIN
22 Jordan Akins HOU vs KC
23 Darren Waller LV vs NE
24 Daniel Bellinger NYG @ WAS
25 Robert Tonyan GB vs LAR

 

Mark Andrews and Demarcus Robinson accounted for 12 of a possible 17 Baltimore targets in Week 14. Andrews has only scored 43.1 PPR points, during his last six games.

Cole Kmet led the Bears in routes run and targets in Week 13. He averaged 2.5 targets per game from Weeks 1 through 8 but is averaging six per game since then. Darnell Mooney’s injury has allowed Kmet to have more opportunities.

When examining these rankings, consider I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex, a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within three spots of each other, the difference between them is negligible.

Good luck this week. 

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