Analysis

12/15/22

11 min read

Wheeler's NFL Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Kev Wheeler

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Below you’ll find my Week 15 fantasy football rankings for PPR/Half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-25 QB Rankings, top-50 RB Rankings, top-60 WR Rankings and top-18 TE Rankings. I actually submit these rankings to two different rankings competitions, one with point per game (PPR) scoring, the other Half-PPR. They are far more accurate for PPR simply because PPR scoring is less influenced by touchdowns.

When I look into weekly matchups, I only use the past five games of data. Anything that happened six weeks ago is just going to cloud our judgment. We are looking at a completely full slate with bye weeks being over, so navigating injuries might prove to be the difference maker.

Quarterback

During the past five games, the Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins have been allowing the most fantasy points to the QB position. Mike White, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and Josh Allen appear to have the best match-up in Week 15. 

Lamar Jackson (knee) likely will not be back this week and backup Tyler Huntley left Sunday's game with a concussion but was a full participant in practice on Wednesday.

49ers QB Brock Purdy is apparently getting an MRI on Monday for an injured oblique. Purdy got hurt on the game's second drive in Week 14 and played well afterward. He has a quick turnaround on Thursday night in Seattle.

This ending stretch by Trevor Lawrence in Doug Pederson's offense creates a lot of excitement for what is coming next year.

Ridley, Kirk, Jones, Engram, Etienne, and another year of the new scheme will be special to watch. pic.twitter.com/ZjkzSsecWr

— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) December 13, 2022

Running Back

Most analysts look at fantasy points allowed when judging matchups, but for the RB position, I look at yards per carry (YPC) allowed. YPC is generally a misused metric that tells us less about running back efficiency but does give us a good indication of defensive efficiency. 

Running Backs with the best Week 13 matchups are Christian McCaffrey against the Seahawks, Najee Harris against the Panthers, J.K. Dobbins against the Browns, Brian Robinson against the Giants and Derrick Henry against the LA Chargers. 

Kenneth Walker (ankle) is not on the Seahawks' Week 15 injury report as of Wednesday. Walker was said to be having tests on Tuesday for what Carroll called a "jammed" ankle. The Seahawks are facing the 49ers in Week 15, so I’m not forcing any of the Seahawks' RBs into my line-up.

During his last three games, Jamaal Williams has scored just 10.6, 9.5 and 3.7 PPR points. He’s scored a touchdown in two of those three games.

Dalvin Cook has failed to reach 10 PPR points in three of his last four games. In his previous nine games, he totaled 10 or more points in all but one. 

Miles Sanders is averaging more than one rushing touchdown and 82 rushing yards per game, during his last six games. The Eagles face a Chicago rush defense that has allowed 108 rushing yards per game, during their past five games.

Dobbins returned from injury in Week 14, and he played the most snaps (42.6% snap share) in the Ravens' backfield (Gus Edwards was at 34%, and Kenyan Drake was at 18%). Dobbins carried the ball 15 times for 120 yards and a touchdown in a 16-14 win against the Steelers. The Ravens face a Browns defense that has allowed the fourth most PPR points-per-game, and the most yards per carry (5.6) to RBs, during the past five games.

Robinson has had more than 100 total yards in the past two games and faces a Giants defense, the same team he faced before their Week 14 bye, that has allowed the third-most PPR points per game and second-most yards-per-game, during their last five games.

We were jumping back on the Cam Akers bandwagon last week in a prime match-up. He finished the day with a 61.9% opportunity share, 12 carries, 42 yards and one TD. I am confident in starting him as an RB2/flex on Monday night in Green Bay.

Wide Receiver

I examine a few different statistics when trying to find good or bad wide receiver matchups, but yards per game and fantasy points allowed are the primary gages. 

The Texans have allowed one WR1 (top-12) performance this year, and it came back in Week 1 (Michael Pittman Jr.). It’s much more likely to be a Travis Kelce week than a Juju Smith-Schuster week when the Texans play the Chiefs this Sunday. 

Mike Evans hasn't finished as a weekly top-30 wide receiver in PPR formats since Week 8.

Brandon Aiyuk only had a 13.6% target share in Week 14, which was his second-lowest target share since Week 1. He did get a touchdown, and Deebo Samuel will be out for a few weeks with an injury.

Corey Davis left the game early in Week 14, and Elijah Moore ended up playing the second-most snaps for the Jets at wide receiver. Moore also led the team with 10 targets.

Browns' WR Donovan Peoples-Jones saw 12 targets against Cincinnati for a 31% target share. He hadn’t seen double-digit targets in a game since Week 1. 

Without Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins, the Houston Texans wide receivers split snaps between Phillip Dorsett (52 snaps), Chris Moore (51), Amari Rodgers (34) and Jalen Camp (6).

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith has seen more than eight targets in five straight games without Dallas Goedert on the field. If Goedert returns expect Smith’s targets to dwindle again.

During his last four full games, Jerry Jeudy has averaged 19.7 PPR points per game for the Broncos.

Tight End 

During the past six weeks, you looked smart starting a TE against the Jaguars, Cardinals, Dolphins, Rams and Tennessee Titans. Tight Ends with the best matchups appear to be Dalton Schultz, Gerald Everett, Greg Dulcich, Robert Tonyan and Dawson Knox. I’m not even considering starting Tonyan though. 

David Njoku saw nine targets and a 23% target share for the Browns in Week 14. He's had less than an 18% target share in just two of his last nine games.

Schultz had a 26% target share in Week 14, which was his second game in a row with at least a 20% target share.

Tyler Conklin

15 targets over the past 2 games

37 receiving yards over the past 2 games

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) December 13, 2022

Mark Andrews and Demarcus Robinson accounted for 12 of a possible 17 Baltimore targets in Week 14. Andrews has only scored 43.1 PPR points, during his last six games.

Cole Kmet led the Bears in routes run and targets in Week 13. He averaged 2.5 targets per game from Weeks 1 through 8 but is averaging six per game since then. Darnell Mooney's injury has allowed Kmet to have more opportunities.

When examining these rankings, consider I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex, a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within three spots of each other, the difference between them is negligible.

Good luck this week. 

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Kev Wheeler

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Kev Wheeler is a former high school baseball and football coach who has been a fantasy football addict for more than 25 years. As a coach, Wheeler's teams accomplished five county and two regional championships. Wheeler has translated his on-field success to the fantasy football arena.