Fantasy

6/9/23

5 min read

What Is Alexander Mattison's Dynasty Fantasy Football Value?

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Alexander Mattison Dynasty Fantasy Football

Now that Dalvin Cook is on his way out of Minnesota, Ian Miller breaks down Alexander Mattison’s new value in Dynasty fantasy football. To close things out, Ryan Reynolds chips in his thoughts on Mattison in Best Ball.

Mattison's Dynasty, Best Ball Value

Mattison’s Dynasty Value is Skyrocketing 

All it took was this tweet from Adam Schefter to send Mattison’s dynasty value soaring. 

A few hours later, this tweet upset every dynasty player and their grandmother. In a nutshell, the tweet was written because we're out on Mattison at top 20 running back prices.

Why We're Out on Mattison at Current Costs

The tweet sent out that afternoon prefaced how Mattison, through four seasons in the NFL, had never eclipsed a 35.0 percent carry percentage, 1.20 yards per team rush attempt, 8.0 percent target share or 0.50 yards per team pass attempt. 

That received a lot of criticism since Mattison was behind Cook his whole career. The issue with projecting Mattison for a high-end fantasy finish now that he’s atop the depth chart is he isn’t guaranteed high usage or production. 

When looking at carry percentages from 2022, only 18 running backs eclipsed at least a 50 percent share. The running back atop the depth chart on 14 teams didn’t get handed a strong carry percentage. 

There were 22 running backs to put up 12.0 fantasy PPG in 2022. That includes two pairs of teammates, meaning 12 NFL teams didn't have a single running back put up at least 12.0 PPG. That’s more than a third of the league. Being atop the depth chart doesn’t mean anything without solid peripherals. 

Minnesota Vikings Alexanders Mattison

Mattison’s Profile 

That leads us to Mattison’s profile. We know the volume-based peripherals aren’t strong, but that’s because he was behind Cook, correct? 

The most common examples used to support Mattison were Derrick Henry behind DeMarco Murray, Austin Ekeler behind Melvin Gordon and Tony Pollard behind Ezekiel Elliott. 

Let’s start with Henry behind Murray the year before he sat atop the depth chart. It was Henry’s second season, and he still managed to put up a 39.7 percent carry percentage and 1.68 yards per team rush attempt to go along with a 3.4 percent target share. 

Ekeler was in his third season behind Gordon on the depth chart the year before he sat atop. That season, Ekeler posted a 36.0 percent carry percentage and 1.52 yards per team rush attempt to go along with a whopping 18.1 percent target share. 

Finally, Pollard was in his fourth season behind Elliott before now being Dallas’ RB1. He posted a 38.7 percent carry percentage and 2.02 yards per team rush attempt to pair with an adequate 10.5 percent target share. 

So, we should expect something similar from Mattison in his fourth season behind Cook, according to the comparisons, right?

Well, what did Mattison put up? An 18.3 percent carry percentage and 0.70 yards per team rush attempt to go along with a 2.7 percent target share. It’s not even a close comparison. 

Sure, there are similarities. We have a running back behind a proven workhorse who is now at the top of the depth chart. The difference is the projections were much easier with Henry, Ekeler and Pollard because they found a way to produce while being the second guy in line. 

With Mattison, there’s a significant leap in projecting his peripherals forward just to get him into the RB2 range this fantasy season — a much larger leap than we made with Henry, Ekeler or Pollard. 

Even if volume stats are meaningless, which they aren’t, we can look at Mattison’s efficiency within his profile. 

We can take every running back below a 30 percent carry percentage in 2022, and Mattison’s 0.70 yards per team rush attempt still ranks 16th. That’s not ideal. 

Bottom Line on Mattison

If Mattison were a cheap acquisition on the market, I would be all over a running back with the opportunity share up for grabs. 

When he’s priced around guys like J.K. Dobbins, Dameon Pierce and Henry, where the high-end usage is much easier to project, Mattison becomes someone I’m looking to sell in Dynasty. 

Mattison in Best Ball

It will be interesting to see if Mattison’s role expansion with Cook’s release was already baked into his current 76.5 ADP on Underdog Fantasy. He’s still in the same cluster as Cook and Cam Akers. It wouldn’t be a significant surprise if Mattison ended up somewhere between Joe Mixon’s 54.3 ADP and Pierce’s 64.3 ADP.

Regardless, the time of getting Mattison at a value in Best Ball is over. If his ADP ends up somewhere in that Mixon to Pierce range, he shouldn’t be completely faded for high-volume drafters, but he should not be actively targeted, either. 

Cook’s departure makes Ty Chandler a more interesting dart throw at the end of drafts, but his ADP is already rising. The time of getting Chandler at a value is over, too, at least in the short term. 

Rookie DeWayne McBride and explosive kick returner Kene Nwangwu now warrant more late-round consideration, especially on DraftKings.

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Tags: Alexander Mattison, Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

Ian Miller

Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.

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