Analysis
12/28/22
3 min read
Week 17 TNF Underdog Fantasy Picks for Cowboys vs. Titans
It was another great weekend this last week. Our picks went 4-1, including the 6/5 confidence play hitting easily. That brings our total this season to 90-79-2.
There are a lot of questions about this matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Dallas Cowboys, and because of that, few lines have been posted so far. In fact, zero lines for Tennessee players are posted yet. I still found two picks I like for the Cowboys and included confidence ratings and where I would play the picks to if the line moves.
Dak Prescott HIGHER than 245.5 Passing Yards
Prescott and the Cowboys' offense has been on fire recently, averaging 34.3 points per game during their last five games. During this time, Prescott has averaged 263.6 passing yards per game. He now gets the Titans, who are tied with the Minnesota Vikings for most passing yards given up this season.
When Prescott faced the Vikings in Week 11, he finished with 276 passing yards. With Tennessee's defense being just as bad as Minnesota's at defending the pass, I fully expect Prescott to go higher here.
Tennessee's defensive style forces teams to throw against them. They have faced by far the most pass attempts this season. We saw Philadelphia almost completely abandon the run against the Titans in Week 13. Jalen Hurts had a season-high 39 pass attempts in that game.
Since that game, teams have copied the Eagles' game plan and continued to pass on this defense. With a pass-heavy script against a terrible pass defense, I am confident in this pick. My only worry is Tennessee not being competitive due to injuries and the great Dallas defense, which could cause the Cowboys to go to a run-heavy script in the second half. I rate this play as 4/5 for confidence and would play it to 255.5 passing yards.
Dalton Schultz HIGHER than 39.5 Receiving yards
Tennessee has been horrific at defending tight ends this season. They give up the second-most yards, third-most receptions and most targets to tight ends. That is partially due to some huge games that a few tight ends had against them. For example, Travis Kelce and Evan Engram both put up more than 100 receiving yards against them.
Schultz likely won't have a Kelce or Engram-type game, but considering this line is just two yards more than his average receiving yards per game this season, it's worth betting on.
He has had some down weeks the past month and has only gone over this line two of the last five weeks. He is still the Cowboys' primary receiving tight end, and I expect him to have a good day against this terrible pass defense. This is my most confident pick of the week, and I would play it up to 45.5 receiving yards.
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