Analysis

2/7/23

11 min read

Never-Too-Early 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings

By Matthew Hill

Fantasy football truly is a year-round obsession. Best ball, rookie drafts, startups, and dynasty trades prove that - for the degenerates among us - there really is no offseason. 

This is why I will not be giving my initial 2023 draft rankings a “way too early” label. It is never too early to start thinking about rankings with drafts taking place and dynasty trading windows back open. With that in mind, I present my initial 2023 rankings. 

Rankings are meant to be a reflection of how I see player values heading into the start of the offseason. Like many of you, I already have begun drafting for 2023. The way I have players slotted is roughly where I have been taking them in early best-ball drafts, with players locked into relatively secure roles or impending free agents expected to command a lot of interest seeing bumps over players dealing with more uncertainty. 

Rankings are sorted by position with additional commentary for players that I have significantly higher or lower than the early FantasyPros consensus rankings and best ball ADP (BestBall10’s). Rookies are not included as we are missing the most critical metrics, including landing spot, to properly slot them with veterans that have production history and established roles.

Quarterbacks

Rank Name Team Position
1 Josh Allen BUF QB
2 Patrick Mahomes KC QB
3 Jalen Hurts PHI QB
4 Joe Burrow CIN QB
5 Justin Fields CHI QB
6 Justin Herbert LAC QB
7 Lamar Jackson BAL QB
8 Trevor Lawrence JAC QB
9 Dak Prescott DAL QB
10 Kirk Cousins MIN QB
11 Deshaun Watson CLE QB
12 Daniel Jones NYG QB
13 Geno Smith SEA QB
14 Jared Goff DET QB
15 Russell Wilson DEN QB
16 Trey Lance SF QB
17 Aaron Rodgers GB QB
18 Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB
19 Matthew Stafford LAR QB
20 Derek Carr LV QB
21 Kyler Murray ARI QB
22 Kenny Pickett PIT QB
23 Ryan Tannehill TEN QB
24 Mac Jones NE QB
25 Sam Howell WAS QB
26 Jameis Winston NO QB
27 Desmond Ridder ATL QB
28 Jimmy Garoppolo SF QB
29 Jordan Love GB QB
30 Baker Mayfield LAR QB
31 Jarrett Stidham LV QB
32 Andy Dalton NO QB
33 Jacoby Brissett CLE QB

 

  • Recent reports about Kyler Murray and his chances of being ready for the start of the 2023 season are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Despite this, he is still going off the board as the QB12 in early BB10 drafts. I am avoiding him at this price and have him as my QB21, six spots below consensus until I hear better news. 
  • Jared Goff was a mid-range QB1 in 2022, and it seems like no one cares. Goff has both a consensus ranking and an ADP of QB17, making him one of the best values at the position in early drafts. 
  • Having Tua Tagovailoa as my QB18 is probably my most controversial ranking, as I have him seven spots below consensus. I do tend to be risk-averse in early best ball, and his concussion history has me worried. I simply cannot draft him as a low-end QB1 if I am worried about him potentially missing a sizable percentage of the season if he were to be concussed again. I do understand his ceiling is massive, so you will have to weigh the risk/reward. I would be more likely to take him in a tournament or winner-take-all format than a 50/50 league.

Running Backs

Rank Name Team Position
1 Christian McCaffrey SF RB
2 Austin Ekeler LAC RB
3 Jonathan Taylor IND RB
4 Saquon Barkley NYG RB
5 Kenneth Walker III SEA RB
6 Derrick Henry TEN RB
7 Nick Chubb CLE RB
8 Josh Jacobs LV RB
9 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC RB
10 Tony Pollard DAL RB
11 Najee Harris PIT RB
12 D'Andre Swift DET RB
13 Breece Hall NYJ RB
14 Dalvin Cook MIN RB
15 Aaron Jones GB RB
16 Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB
17 Joe Mixon CIN RB
18 Dameon Pierce HOU RB
19 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB
20 Cam Akers LAR RB
21 David Montgomery CHI RB
22 Javonte Williams DEN RB
23 Alvin Kamara NO RB
24 James Conner ARI RB
25 Miles Sanders PHI RB
26 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB
27 Tyler Allgeier ATL RB
28 AJ Dillon GB RB
29 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS RB
30 Isiah Pacheco KC RB
31 Rachaad White TB RB
32 Leonard Fournette TB RB
33 Jamaal Williams DET RB
34 James Cook BUF RB
35 Khalil Herbert CHI RB
36 Antonio Gibson WAS RB
37 Kareem Hunt CLE RB
38 Elijah Mitchell SF RB
39 Damien Harris NE RB
40 Devin Singletary BUF RB
41 Alexander Mattison MIN RB
42 Jerick McKinnon KC RB
43 Rashaad Penny SEA RB
44 Raheem Mostert MIA RB
45 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL RB
46 Jeff Wilson Jr. MIA RB
47 Kenneth Gainwell PHI RB
48 D'Onta Foreman CAR RB
49 Samaje Perine CIN RB
50 Joshua Kelley LAC RB
51 Zamir White LV RB
52 Chase Edmonds DEN RB
53 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB
54 Michael Carter NYJ RB
55 Chuba Hubbard CAR RB
56 Jaylen Warren PIT RB
57 James Robinson NYJ RB
58 Gus Edwards BAL RB
59 Nyheim Hines BUF RB
60 Isaiah Spiller LAC RB
61 D'Ernest Johnson CLE RB
62 Zonovan Knight NYJ RB
63 Zack Moss IND RB
64 Pierre Strong Jr. NE RB
65 Jordan Mason SF RB

 

  • Alvin Kamara had a disappointing 2022, finishing as the PPR RB19. He is a year older, playing for a team in transition, and is dealing with a legal issue that refuses to go away. His early ADP of RB12 is too high and seemingly based on name recognition trumping reality. 
  • Similar to Murray, Javonte Williams has an ADP and consensus ranking (both right at RB17) that is not reflective of his potential to miss the start of the season and produce less than he was prior to tearing ACL, PCL, and LCL. It will not be an easy road for Williams to return to form, and I am out on him in early drafts. 
  • Dameon Pierce was the RB15 through Week 14 despite playing on a Texans offense that featured few playmakers. There is some concern that Houston adds a pass-catching back in a deep draft, but it is just as likely that the Texans’ offense adds talent throughout, allowing Pierce to improve upon his strong rookie campaign with more goal-line opportunities. His ADP and ECR, in the 20s, seem too low. 
  • Leonard Fournette is a potential cut candidate, and if he does return to Tampa, there is no telling what the offense will look like and how many touches he will concede to Rachaad White. His early ADP of RB21 isn’t outlandish, but there is just too much uncertainty for me to take him at his cost. 
  • I am more likely to be loading up on rookies to fill out my collection of running backs, but if you are looking for a veteran to target late, there is growing buzz surrounding the potential for an increased role for Chargers RB Joshua Kelley next season. My concern is that they add to their running back room, but if Kelley makes it through free agency and the draft as the Chargers' backup, his ADP will leap. 
  • I’m cheating since I do not actually have rookies in my rankings, but if you are doing early best ball, you need to be targeting running backs with strong receiving profiles. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs have justifiably gone early, but backs like Sean Tucker, Devon Achane, and Tyjae Spears will never be priced lower than they are now.

Wide Receivers

Rank Name Team Position
1 Justin Jefferson MIN WR
2 Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR
3 Cooper Kupp LAR WR
4 Davante Adams LV WR
5 Stefon Diggs BUF WR
6 Tyreek Hill MIA WR
7 CeeDee Lamb DAL WR
8 A.J. Brown PHI WR
9 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR
10 Jaylen Waddle MIA WR
11 Garrett Wilson NYJ WR
12 Tee Higgins CIN WR
13 DK Metcalf SEA WR
14 Deebo Samuel SF WR
15 Chris Godwin TB WR
16 DeVonta Smith PHI WR
17 DJ Moore CAR WR
18 Chris Olave NO WR
19 Keenan Allen LAC WR
20 Amari Cooper CLE WR
21 Mike Evans TB WR
22 DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR
23 Mike Williams LAC WR
24 Terry McLaurin WAS WR
25 Michael Pittman Jr. IND WR
26 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR
27 Drake London ATL WR
28 Christian Watson GB WR
29 Diontae Johnson PIT WR
30 George Pickens PIT WR
31 Tyler Lockett SEA WR
32 Brandon Aiyuk SF WR
33 Treylon Burks TEN WR
34 Christian Kirk JAC WR
35 Marquise Brown ARI WR
36 Jahan Dotson WAS WR
37 Rashod Bateman BAL WR
38 Courtland Sutton DEN WR
39 Calvin Ridley JAC WR
40 Brandin Cooks HOU WR
41 Jakobi Meyers NE WR
42 Jameson Williams DET WR
43 Gabe Davis BUF WR
44 Darnell Mooney CHI WR
45 Allen Lazard GB WR
46 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC WR
47 Kadarius Toney KC WR
48 Rondale Moore ARI WR
49 Hunter Renfrow LV WR
50 Zay Jones JAC WR
51 Tyler Boyd CIN WR
52 Michael Gallup DAL WR
53 Nico Collins HOU WR
54 Adam Thielen MIN WR
55 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE WR
56 DJ Chark Jr. DET WR
57 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG WR
58 Joshua Palmer LAC WR
59 Elijah Moore NYJ WR
60 Michael Thomas NO WR
61 Chase Claypool CHI WR
62 Skyy Moore KC WR
63 Romeo Doubs GB WR
64 Allen Robinson II LAR WR
65 Curtis Samuel WAS WR
66 K.J. Osborn MIN WR
67 Mecole Hardman KC WR
68 Alec Pierce IND WR
69 Russell Gage TB WR
70 DeVante Parker NE WR
71 Robert Woods TEN WR
72 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC WR
73 Parris Campbell IND WR
74 Tim Patrick DEN WR
75 Isaiah McKenzie BUF WR
76 Corey Davis NYJ WR
77 Darius Slayton NYG WR
78 Van Jefferson LAR WR
79 Rashid Shaheed NO WR
80 John Metchie III HOU WR
81 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR WR
82 Isaiah Hodgins NYG WR
83 Tyquan Thornton NE WR
84 David Bell CLE WR
85 Sterling Shepard NYG WR
86 Julio Jones TB WR
87 Marvin Jones Jr. JAC WR
88 KJ Hamler DEN WR
89 Robbie Anderson ARI WR
90 Kendrick Bourne NE WR

 

  • Keenan Allen has an early ADP of WR13, which is fair, but with his turning 31 in April and talk of him being a potential cut candidate, I have been fading him at his cost. Allen has always benefited from elite volume and QB play. If he sees a drop in targets, moves onto another team (and a likely QB downgrade), or struggles with injuries for a second season in a row, he will have a difficult time putting up numbers that justify his ADP. 
  • Treylon Burks had a  disappointing, injury-plagued rookie season that has resulted in him being a strong value-play in early drafts. Both his ADP and ECR have him right at WR40, which is simply too low for a talented receiver locked into his team’s No. 1 role. It seems to me that he is priced at his floor. 
  • Michael Thomas has played three games in two seasons, is on a Saints team with no clear offensive identity, and turns 30 next month. His current ADP of WR44 is higher than Jahan Dotson, Jakobi Meyers, and every rookie receiver. I understand his historic production, but I cannot take him at his current cost, especially in 50/50 drafts. 
  • There is a pretty significant gap between Nico Collins’ ADP (WR68) and his ECR (WR55). With Brandin Cooks wanting out of Houston and a QB upgrade expected to be on tap, I have Collins much closer to his consensus ranking than his ADP. Even with the likely addition of veteran or rookie help, Collins should maintain a significant role and is an excellent target in the teens rounds of early best ball drafts as a sixth or seventh wide receiver.

Tight Ends

Rank Name Team Position
1 Travis Kelce KC TE
2 Mark Andrews BAL TE
3 T.J. Hockenson MIN TE
4 George Kittle SF TE
5 Kyle Pitts ATL TE
6 Dallas Goedert PHI TE
7 Darren Waller LV TE
8 David Njoku CLE TE
9 Pat Freiermuth PIT TE
10 Dalton Schultz DAL TE
11 Evan Engram JAC TE
12 Cole Kmet CHI TE
13 Dawson Knox BUF TE
14 Greg Dulcich DEN TE
15 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN TE
16 Gerald Everett LAC TE
17 Tyler Higbee LAR TE
18 Trey McBride ARI TE
19 Mike Gesicki MIA TE
20 Noah Fant SEA TE
21 Hayden Hurst CIN TE
22 Hunter Henry NE TE
23 Juwan Johnson NO TE
24 Zach Ertz ARI TE
25 Taysom Hill NO TE
26 Daniel Bellinger NYG TE
27 Isaiah Likely BAL TE
28 Logan Thomas WAS TE
29 Irv Smith Jr. MIN TE
30 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN TE
31 Robert Tonyan GB TE
32 Austin Hooper TEN TE
33 Jonnu Smith NE TE
34 Cade Otton TB TE
35 Jelani Woods IND TE

 

  • Zach Ertz turns 33 next season, is not a sure thing to be ready for Week 1, and is a potential cut candidate. He currently has both an ADP and ECR of TE14. I will not be having any shares of Ertz until his 2023 role becomes more clear. 
  • Even if Ertz remains a Cardinal and is able to take the field in Week 1, he will still have to contend with talented second-year tight end Trey McBride. McBride flashed enough in 2022 to earn a significant role next season, making him a value at his current ADP of TE23. I have him one spot above consensus as the TE18.

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Tags: 2023 Fantasy Football, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons See More

Matthew Hill

Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.

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