Analysis

12/21/22

14 min read

Hill's NFL Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Hill

Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

You’ve heard it before, but it bears repeating, now is not the time to get cute. If you’re playing meaningful games this week, chances are good your teams are loaded. Unfortunately, even the deepest of teams have to deal with injuries and underperforming players. So my Week 16 rankings will once again be a deep dive at each position for those of you still working the wire or are researching deep DFS sleepers. 

This article features my complete rankings for the week and blurbs highlighting players I have above or below consensus, according to how my rankings match up with the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).

My initial rankings are made based on my first impressions of the players based on matchups and recent trends. Look for updated rankings and additional player blurbs throughout the week as new information presents itself.

Top 20 Quarterbacks

Rank Name Team Position Opp Kickoff
1 Patrick Mahomes II KC QB vs SEA Sat 1:00pm ET
2 Josh Allen BUF QB @ CHI Sat 1:00pm ET
3 Justin Herbert LAC QB @ IND Mon 8:15pm ET
4 Joe Burrow CIN QB @ NE Sat 1:00pm ET
5 Justin Fields CHI QB vs BUF Sat 1:00pm ET
6 Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB vs GB Sun 1:00pm ET
7 Kirk Cousins MIN QB vs NYG Sat 1:00pm ET
8 Geno Smith SEA QB @ KC Sat 1:00pm ET
9 Dak Prescott DAL QB vs PHI Sat 4:25pm ET
10 Tom Brady TB QB @ ARI Sun 8:20pm ET
11 Daniel Jones NYG QB @ MIN Sat 1:00pm ET
12 Aaron Rodgers GB QB @ MIA Sun 1:00pm ET
13 Trevor Lawrence JAC QB @ NYJ Thu 8:15pm ET
14 Brock Purdy SF QB vs WAS Sat 4:05pm ET
15 Gardner Minshew II PHI QB @ DAL Sat 4:25pm ET
16 Jared Goff DET QB @ CAR Sat 1:00pm ET
17 Derek Carr LV QB @ PIT Sat 8:15pm ET
18 Sam Darnold CAR QB vs DET Sat 1:00pm ET
19 Kenny Pickett PIT QB vs LV Sat 8:15pm ET
20 Russell Wilson DEN QB @ LAR Sun 4:30pm ET

 

  • Tom Brady has put up low-end QB1 numbers in two of his last three games and now gets a reeling Cardinals team, losing four straight and six of their last seven games. His early QB13 consensus ranking is too low. 
  • Daniel Jones has finished as a QB1 five times this season and goes against a Vikings' defense, allowing a quarterback to exceed 325 yards, seven times. This game being played inside a dome during a week where the weather is expected to factor heavily across the slate makes Jones even more interesting. 
  • Deshaun Watson's first three starts have resulted in finishes of QB30, QB14 and QB21. He enters Week 16 with an early ECR of QB18, despite a historically low opening line of 32 points. That low opening line is largely influenced by a brutal forecast featuring strong winds gusting up to 40 mph and temperatures in the teens. 
  • Zach Wilson finished as the QB9 in Week 15 and gets a Jacksonville defense that has surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in five of six games. 
  • You probably have better options if you’ve made it to your Week 16 playoff game. However, Sam Darnold probably doesn’t possess the ceiling needed to consider playing him in DFS. Not to mention, Darnold has not finished lower than QB20 in any of his three starts and gets Detroit at home this week. His ECR of QB20 is his floor.

Top 50 Running Backs

Rank Name Team Position Opp Kickoff
1 Derrick Henry TEN RB vs HOU Sat 1:00pm ET
2 Christian McCaffrey SF RB vs WAS Sat 4:05pm ET
3 Josh Jacobs LV RB @ PIT Sat 8:15pm ET
4 Austin Ekeler LAC RB @ IND Mon 8:15pm ET
5 Dalvin Cook MIN RB vs NYG Sat 1:00pm ET
6 Saquon Barkley NYG RB @ MIN Sat 1:00pm ET
7 Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB vs CIN Sat 1:00pm ET
8 Nick Chubb CLE RB vs NO Sat 1:00pm ET
9 James Conner ARI RB vs TB Sun 8:20pm ET
10 Tony Pollard DAL RB vs PHI Sat 4:25pm ET
11 Najee Harris PIT RB vs LV Sat 8:15pm ET
12 Aaron Jones GB RB @ MIA Sun 1:00pm ET
13 Joe Mixon CIN RB @ NE Sat 1:00pm ET
14 Jerick McKinnon KC RB vs SEA Sat 1:00pm ET
15 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC RB @ NYJ Thu 8:15pm ET
16 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB vs ATL Sat 1:00pm ET
17 Alvin Kamara NO RB @ CLE Sat 1:00pm ET
18 Miles Sanders PHI RB @ DAL Sat 4:25pm ET
19 Isiah Pacheco KC RB vs SEA Sat 1:00pm ET
20 Kenneth Walker III SEA RB @ KC Sat 1:00pm ET
21 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB vs PHI Sat 4:25pm ET
22 Raheem Mostert MIA RB vs GB Sun 1:00pm ET
23 David Montgomery CHI RB vs BUF Sat 1:00pm ET
24 Leonard Fournette TB RB @ ARI Sun 8:20pm ET
25 Latavius Murray DEN RB @ LAR Sun 4:30pm ET
26 Cam Akers LAR RB vs DEN Sun 4:30pm ET
27 Zonovan Knight NYJ RB vs JAC Thu 8:15pm ET
28 D'Andre Swift DET RB @ CAR Sat 1:00pm ET
29 Rachaad White TB RB @ ARI Sun 8:20pm ET
30 AJ Dillon GB RB @ MIA Sun 1:00pm ET
31 Devin Singletary BUF RB @ CHI Sat 1:00pm ET
32 Deon Jackson IND RB vs LAC Mon 8:15pm ET
33 Zack Moss IND RB vs LAC Mon 8:15pm ET
34 Jamaal Williams DET RB @ CAR Sat 1:00pm ET
35 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS RB @ SF Sat 4:05pm ET
36 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL RB @ BAL Sat 1:00pm ET
37 Tyler Allgeier ATL RB @ BAL Sat 1:00pm ET
38 Chuba Hubbard CAR RB vs DET Sat 1:00pm ET
39 D'Onta Foreman CAR RB vs DET Sat 1:00pm ET
40 Antonio Gibson WAS RB @ SF Sat 4:05pm ET
41 James Cook BUF RB @ CHI Sat 1:00pm ET
42 Michael Carter NYJ RB vs JAC Thu 8:15pm ET
43 Jeff Wilson Jr. MIA RB vs GB Sun 1:00pm ET
44 Gus Edwards BAL RB vs ATL Sat 1:00pm ET
45 Kareem Hunt CLE RB vs NO Sat 1:00pm ET
46 Royce Freeman HOU RB @ TEN Sat 1:00pm ET
47 Khalil Herbert CHI RB vs BUF Sat 1:00pm ET
48 Jaylen Warren PIT RB vs LV Sat 8:15pm ET
49 Samaje Perine CIN RB @ NE Sat 1:00pm ET
50 Marlon Mack DEN RB @ LAR Sun 4:30pm ET

 

  • Jerick McKinnon has posted back-to-back overall RB1 finishes by dominating the Chiefs' passing down and red zone work. With the Seahawks in town and with him receiving the money touches in one of the league’s elite offenses, McKinnon is once again a high-floor/ceiling option. 
  • Kenneth Walker III returned from a one-week absence to see 12 carries, five targets and play 75% of the snaps. Assuming there were no setbacks, Walker should be a high floor/ceiling play in the cold at Kansas City. Walker remained limited all week and is officially questionable. To add to the uncertainty, Seattle elevated a pair of running backs from the practice squad. He is still ranked as if he is playing, but I did slide him down near consensus for now.
  • Latavius Murray has surpassed 20 touches in three of five games and should see heavy volume in likely a close game at the Rams. 
  • During his past three games, Cam Akers has scored three touchdowns and has finished no lower than the RB23. His early ECR of RB33 at home vs the Broncos is several spots too low.
  • Nick Chubb should be featured in a windy, bitter-cold home contest vs. the Saints. Chubb has struggled as of late, finishing lower than RB26 four times since Week 11, but everything is set up for him to bounce back.

Top 65 Wide Receivers

Rank Name Team Position Opp Kickoff
1 Justin Jefferson MIN WR vs NYG Sat 1:00pm ET
2 Tyreek Hill MIA WR vs GB Sun 1:00pm ET
3 Davante Adams LV WR @ PIT Sat 8:15pm ET
4 Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR @ NE Sat 1:00pm ET
5 DK Metcalf SEA WR @ KC Sat 1:00pm ET
6 Stefon Diggs BUF WR @ CHI Sat 1:00pm ET
7 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR @ CAR Sat 1:00pm ET
8 A.J. Brown PHI WR @ DAL Sat 4:25pm ET
9 CeeDee Lamb DAL WR vs PHI Sat 4:25pm ET
10 Chris Godwin TB WR @ ARI Sun 8:20pm ET
11 Jaylen Waddle MIA WR vs GB Sun 1:00pm ET
12 Keenan Allen LAC WR @ IND Mon 8:15pm ET
13 Mike Williams LAC WR @ IND Mon 8:15pm ET
14 Mike Evans TB WR @ ARI Sun 8:20pm ET
15 DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR vs TB Sun 8:20pm ET
16 Tee Higgins CIN WR @ NE Sat 1:00pm ET
17 Garrett Wilson NYJ WR vs JAC Thu 8:15pm ET
18 DJ Moore CAR WR vs DET Sat 1:00pm ET
19 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR @ LAR Sun 4:30pm ET
20 Terry McLaurin WAS WR @ SF Sat 4:05pm ET
21 Christian Kirk JAC WR @ NYJ Thu 8:15pm ET
22 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC WR vs SEA Sat 1:00pm ET
23 Michael Pittman Jr. IND WR vs LAC Mon 8:15pm ET
24 Christian Watson GB WR @ MIA Sun 1:00pm ET
25 DeVonta Smith PHI WR @ DAL Sat 4:25pm ET
26 Diontae Johnson PIT WR vs LV Sat 8:15pm ET
27 Zay Jones JAC WR @ NYJ Thu 8:15pm ET
28 Darius Slayton NYG WR @ MIN Sat 1:00pm ET
29 Brandon Aiyuk SF WR vs WAS Sat 4:05pm ET
30 George Pickens PIT WR vs LV Sat 8:15pm ET
31 Brandin Cooks HOU WR @ TEN Sat 1:00pm ET
32 Gabe Davis BUF WR @ CHI Sat 1:00pm ET
33 Marquise Brown ARI WR vs TB Sun 8:20pm ET
34 Adam Thielen MIN WR vs NYG Sat 1:00pm ET
35 Drake London ATL WR @ BAL Sat 1:00pm ET
36 Jahan Dotson WAS WR @ SF Sat 4:05pm ET
37 Allen Lazard GB WR @ MIA Sun 1:00pm ET
38 DJ Chark Jr. DET WR @ CAR Sat 1:00pm ET
39 Marquise Goodwin SEA WR @ KC Sat 1:00pm ET
40 Jakobi Meyers NE WR vs CIN Sat 1:00pm ET
41 K.J. Osborn MIN WR vs NYG Sat 1:00pm ET
42 Joshua Palmer LAC WR @ IND Mon 8:15pm ET
43 Tyler Boyd CIN WR @ NE Sat 1:00pm ET
44 Amari Cooper CLE WR vs NO Sat 1:00pm ET
45 Chris Moore HOU WR @ TEN Sat 1:00pm ET
46 Curtis Samuel WAS WR @ SF Sat 4:05pm ET
47 Mack Hollins LV WR @ PIT Sat 8:15pm ET
48 Richie James Jr. NYG WR @ MIN Sat 1:00pm ET
49 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC WR vs SEA Sat 1:00pm ET
50 Isaiah Hodgins NYG WR @ MIN Sat 1:00pm ET
51 Treylon Burks TEN WR vs HOU Sat 1:00pm ET
52 Michael Gallup DAL WR vs PHI Sat 4:25pm ET
53 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE WR vs NO Sat 1:00pm ET
54 Rashid Shaheed NO WR @ CLE Sat 1:00pm ET
55 Van Jefferson LAR WR vs DEN Sun 4:30pm ET
56 Demarcus Robinson BAL WR vs ATL Sat 1:00pm ET
57 Parris Campbell IND WR vs LAC Mon 8:15pm ET
58 Elijah Moore NYJ WR vs JAC Thu 8:15pm ET
59 Russell Gage TB WR @ ARI Sun 8:20pm ET
60 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR WR vs DET Sat 1:00pm ET
61 Courtland Sutton DEN WR @ LAR Sun 4:30pm ET
62 Corey Davis NYJ WR vs JAC Thu 8:15pm ET
63 Alec Pierce IND WR vs LAC Mon 8:15pm ET
64 Nelson Agholor NE WR vs CIN Sat 1:00pm ET
65 Isaiah McKenzie BUF WR @ CHI Sat 1:00pm ET

 

 

  • DeAndre Hopkins continues to receive elite usage, having seen double-digit targets in four of five games. However, he has only found the end zone once in those same five games. Since the offense turning to Trace McSorley, his ceiling may be lower than we’d like to admit. 
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has seen double-digit targets in back-to-back games, securing an insane 20 of 21 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City wide receivers have been maddeningly difficult to trust this year, but Smith-Schuster is certainly trending up with a home matchup against Seattle on tap. 
  • D.J. Moore has personified “boom-bust” with four top-12 weeks along with four finishes outside the top 60. I like the chances of this being a “boom” week because of his strong matchup against the Lions. Also, he's turned in more consistent performances as of late. 
  • Josh Palmer has only scored in two of 14 games this season, has not surpassed 60 yards since Week 11 and is no longer seeing the field in two-receiver sets since Mike Williams' return. His early consensus ranking of WR39 is too high based on his decline in usage. As the reality of the freezing weather across the slate, especially games with expected high winds, Palmer keeps sliding up my rankings to where I am comfortable ranking him near his WR40 consensus.
  • Rashid Shaheed paced the Saints' receivers in snaps, routes and targets last week. He finished as a low-end WR1 after posting three catches, 95 yards and one touchdown. His matchup at Cleveland opened with a minuscule 32-point line, but his expanding role makes Shaheed dart-throw worthy, especially if there is anything significantly wrong with Chris Olave’s hamstring. Olave has been ruled out, bumping Shaheed. Despite his being the Saints' default WR1, Shaheed is ranked right around WR50 in the slate’s lowest totaled game.  
  • Isaiah Hodgins has not seen massive volume with just 16 targets in the last three games. He has been ultra-efficient, however, with those 16 targets resulting in 13 receptions with a pair of scores. A potentially high-scoring game with the Vikings could give Hodgins the volume needed for a boom week. 
  • Jameson Williams played 12 snaps, seeing one target last week. I know people are excited to see what the talented rookie will bring to Detroit's offense, but for now, he simply doesn’t have a big enough role to be trusted. 

Top 22 Tight Ends

Rank Name Team Position Opp Kickoff
1 Travis Kelce KC TE vs SEA Sat 1:00pm ET
2 George Kittle SF TE vs WAS Sat 4:05pm ET
3 T.J. Hockenson MIN TE vs NYG Sat 1:00pm ET
4 Mark Andrews BAL TE vs ATL Sat 1:00pm ET
5 Dallas Goedert PHI TE @ DAL Sat 4:25pm ET
6 Darren Waller LV TE @ PIT Sat 8:15pm ET
7 Dalton Schultz DAL TE vs PHI Sat 4:25pm ET
8 Evan Engram JAC TE @ NYJ Thu 8:15pm ET
9 Taysom Hill NO TE @ CLE Sat 1:00pm ET
10 Dawson Knox BUF TE @ CHI Sat 1:00pm ET
11 Pat Freiermuth PIT TE vs LV Sat 8:15pm ET
12 Cole Kmet CHI TE vs BUF Sat 1:00pm ET
13 Gerald Everett LAC TE @ IND Mon 8:15pm ET
14 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN TE vs HOU Sat 1:00pm ET
15 Greg Dulcich DEN TE @ LAR Sun 4:30pm ET
16 Noah Fant SEA TE @ KC Sat 1:00pm ET
17 Hunter Henry NE TE vs CIN Sat 1:00pm ET
18 David Njoku CLE TE vs NO Sat 1:00pm ET
19 Tyler Higbee LAR TE vs DEN Sun 4:30pm ET
20 Jordan Akins HOU TE @ TEN Sat 1:00pm ET
21 Daniel Bellinger NYG TE @ MIN Sat 1:00pm ET
22 Juwan Johnson NO TE @ CLE Sat 1:00pm ET
  • Cole Kmet played every Week 15 snap, turning his five targets into a modest four catch, 25 yard and zero touchdown line. Kmet may need to see more volume in Week 16 if Chicago wants to keep up with Buffalo’s offense. 
  • Pat Freiermuth didn’t post a reception last week, received zero targets and was out-snapped by Zach Gentry. Freiermuth’s usage has been trending down for weeks. After Week 15’s disaster, I am fading him in Week 16 despite a plus matchup. 
  • Tyler Conklin continued to out-snap C.J. Uzomah (47-32) and ran more routes (22-11), but Uzomah’s first touchdown receptions of the season raised his ERC while Conklin's is sliding. I am on board with Conklin being a fade, and I don't think Uzomah will replicate his performance from last week.
  • Bellinger played 62 of 63 snaps despite carrying a questionable tag into his Week 15 contest. He is a high-upside play as an every-down tight end at the Vikings.
  • There is growing speculation that New Orleans may counter the brutal conditions with a heavy dose of Taysom Hill. While nothing definitive at this point, the possibility of a heavy Hill snap share has me moving him into my top ten.

WATCH: Week 16 Waiver Wire Targets

 

Tags: Cam Akers, Cole Kmet, Daniel Bellinger See More

Matthew Hill

Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.

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