Analysis

11/16/22

18 min read

Matthew Hill's Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Hill

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I am no stranger to change. As a father of four, two with serious medical conditions, I have long figured out that as much as I plan, I have no clue what each day will bring. As someone who thrives on routine, learning to be comfortable with uncertainty has been a painful, albeit necessary, process. 

While you may not have to perform the same family of six juggling act, the reality is you are dealing with your own agonizing decisions, unique to your daily walk, that can be painfully uncomfortable. We long for stability, order and "simpler times." The reality is we live in a world of constant change. 

So, here I am with yet another change, writing my debut article for The 33rd Team, excited and humbled to play a small late-season role for one of fantasy's up-and-coming sites. As we enter the final weeks of the fantasy regular season in traditional leagues, and with few opportunities to find ourselves near the top of DFS leaderboards, we are sifting through an ever-growing mountain of data (matchup results, lengthy injury reports, evolving depth charts, snap shares…SO MUCH DATA).

I hope I can play a small role in helping you sift through the mountains of information to make the necessary changes (minor or significant) needed to bring home a championship. 

George Bernard Shaw captured the nature and power of change best when he said, "Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything."

This is indeed a time to lean into change. Our draft rankings and early season boom weeks need to be squarely in our rear-view mirrors, replaced by players whose targets, touches and trends highlight them as being the plays that will give us a DFS edge, and the ones who we confidently put in our lineups as we make our playoff push. As we examine this week's matchups, let us not be afraid to "change our minds" and embrace the new realities of Week 11. 

This week and each week going forward, I will submit my rankings and highlight several players from each position I have above or below consensus, according to the Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Check back throughout the week, as I will update my rankings as new information comes out.

Top 20 Quarterbacks

• Derek Carr checks in as the consensus QB16 despite his taking on a Broncos defense in Denver that has only given 174 passing yards a game and having finished as QB25 in Week 4, the last time he played Denver. Carr historically putting up better numbers against the Broncos in Denver than at home gives him some value in two-QB leagues, but not I will be looking for safer options in one-QB leagues and largely fading in DFS.
• Kenny Pickett's QB12 performance largely flew under the radar, as has his rushing upside. He has turned 18 carries into 108 yards and a touchdown during the last three games. In what could be a sneaky shootout, I see Pickett building on last week's performance and have him ranked several spots above his ECR of QR19. 
• After a slow start, Aaron Rodgers has now put up low-end QB1 numbers in three of his last four games. He now takes on a Titans team at home that has surrendered 272 yards a game through the air. Thursday night games can be maddeningly unpredictable, but a top-10 finish is squarely in the range of outcomes.

Top 50 Running Backs

• We will have to see how ownership projections look later this week, but carrying a reasonably high price tag of $6100 on DraftKings may prevent this from turning into "David Montgomery Chalk Week." That said, it will be a good idea to have some exposure to the new/old Bears every-down back in a plus matchup vs. Atlanta. Montgomery should finish the week amongst the leaders in total touches, giving him a high PPR floor with touchdown upside, since Khalil Herbert is set to miss at least the next four weeks. 
• Jamaal Williams continues to be heavily involved even with D'Andre Swift returning to the active roster. The issue I have is he has not seen a single target in the past two weeks. He's averaged 3.5 YPC the past two weeks, and it seems like a matter of time before Swift begins to resemble his former self. Williams' ECR of 16 seems about five spots too high to me.
• While we did not see the backfield takeover Fantasy Twitter hungered for last week, Jaylen Warren is clearly a back on the rise. Warren has finished as the RB30 and RB26 the past two weeks, combining for 152 yards and securing six receptions. With a potential shootout on tap, Warren is severely undervalued as the RB40 in the early ECR. 
• I know there is always some hesitancy in declaring an official "changing of the guard," but is it safe to say Isiah Pacheco has taken the lead back job from Clyde Edwards-Helaire? Pacheco now has 29 carries during the past three games, including 16 last week.
• Meanwhile, CEH has combined for 10 carries for 37 yards with one reception during those same three games. Edwards-Helaire's consensus ranking of RB43 does not reflect the reality of his current role.

Top 65 Wide Receivers

• The return to health of Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas, combined with the strong play of Curtis Samuel and Antonio Gibson, has caused many to overlook how much volume Terry McLaurin has seen in recent weeks. McLaurin hasn't had fewer than eight targets in a game since Week 6. Even if Houston can shorten the number of Washington's plays with a ground-heavy attack, McLaurin is still set up to deliver low-end WR1 numbers, especially if he can find the end zone. If Wentz can return and Washington elects to put him back in the lineup (two BIG ifs), McLaurin will drop in the rankings.
• The matchups and lack of quality target competition had Chris Olave poised for success in recent weeks. Still, while the volume has been decent (7, 9, 5 targets last three weeks), the yardage totals (52, 71, 40) have disappointed as the Saints have struggled offensively. With Saints-Rams over/under set at 39, Vegas expects a low-scoring contest, which is not the optimal condition for Olave to find the end zone for the first time since Week 5. 
• Yes, the Justin Fields breakout has been glorious; it just hasn't done much for the production of his top wide receiver. Darnell Mooney has an ECR as a low-end WR2, despite continuing to struggle during Fields' boom weeks, finishing as the PPR WR50, WR35, WR13 and WR45 the past four weeks. Mooney is more of a high-floor, low-ceiling WR3 than a WR2 at Atlanta. 
• No one is expecting Allen Robinson to duplicate Cooper Kupp's production as the Rams' new go-to receiver. It seems, however, Robinson's disappointing season has caused many to underestimate his potential in the future. Robinson's ADP of 38 is far too low, considering Robinson's targets were already on the rise before Kupp's injury, and Robinson is still getting acclimated to the Rams. As long as Stafford can return to the lineup, Robinson should smash his Week 11 ECR. 
• DeAndre Carter's big game on the Sunday night stage, combined with the potential for a Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams return, has Josh Palmer's ECR suppressed (WR26). With 30 targets during his last three starts and Williams potentially needing another week (who knows about Keenan), Palmer has slate-busting upside in a home matchup against the Chiefs. As long as Williams is confirmed out, Palmer is a top-15 play. *UPDATE* Mike Williams is expected to play and Keenan Allen has a strong shot of joining him. Palmer drops from WR15 to WR36, one spot ahead of Allen. Allen's ranking will likely rise or fall depending on if we receive any news tomorrow morning. Mike Williams settles at WR29, several spots ahead of his updated ECR.
• An offseason darling, Courtland Sutton frustrated his draft season supporters with an absolutely brutal Weeks 6-8, where he combined for six catches for 50 yards. With Jerry Jeudy poised to miss some time and Denver struggling to move the ball on the ground, it may be time to reinvest in Sutton. I have him as a high-end WR2 with upside at home against Las Vegas. 
• Allen Lazard has been a touchdown machine, finding the end zone in five-of-eight starts. It is his red zone role combined with his home matchup with a vulnerable Titans' secondary that has his ERC as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. However, he has only broken 87 yards once this season, limiting his ceiling all year. That, combined with Christian Watson's Week 10 breakout, has me ranking Lazard several spots below consensus as a solid WR2. 
• In his first action since Week 7, Nico Collins saw 10 targets, catching five for 49 yards and a score. It appears Collins has taken over the WR1 role in Houston as disgruntled, aging Brandin Cooks hasn't recorded more than four catches in a game since Week 4, which was the same week he scored his last touchdown. 
• Robert Woods and Treylon Burks are adjacent in the early consensus rankings with ERCs of WR54 and WR55. Consider me firmly in the Burks' camp when considering which Titans receiver I like the most this week. Woods looks washed, combining for seven receptions and 62 yards during his last four games. Meanwhile, Burks saw six targets after returning to the lineup for the first time since Week 4. I have Woods roughly 10 spots below and Burks 10 spots above consensus.

Top 25 Tight Ends

• Tre' McKitty saw six targets last week in a game where Gerald Everett left early with a groin injury. Look for McKitty's TE37 ECR to rise if it becomes apparent Everett will miss this week. He will land within my top-20 tight ends as a ceiling play in a potentially high-scoring game. *UPDATE* Gerald Everett was removed from the injury list on Friday only to be be put back on it Saturday. He is questionable with his groin injury. The weekend downgrade makes me believe that he will be out on Sunday night. If we do not get positive news in the morning, I will be removing Everett from my rankings and bumping McKitty into the top 20. 
• While there is some uncertainty surrounding Everett's ability on Sunday, things are much clearer in Philadelphia regarding their starting tight end as Dallas Goedert is set to miss some time. The question is which young tight end on the Eagles roster will most likely benefit from Goedert's absence. The trio of Jack Stoll, Tyree Jackson and Grant Calcaterra are all justifiably outside of this week's top 30 tight ends, with all three potentially seeing action and each one being at the bottom of the Eagles' pecking order. Calcaterra is interesting in the deepest of leagues, but I am largely staying away.
• After a strong week of practice, David Njoku looks likely to make his return. I will be monitoring the news carefully prior to kickoff looking for reports of limited snaps, but he is TE16 for now.

WATCH MORE: Week 11 Waiver Wire Show

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.