Matthew Hill’s 2023 NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

Justin Herbert with text "Matthew Hill's Week 1 Rankings"

Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and it is ready to blow up everything we thought we knew about the coming season.

Yes, we have preseason snap rates, depth charts, soundbites, new reports and last season’s data, but the reality is this week is certain to be filled with surprises and outright shocking moments.

This is part of what makes Week 1 so compelling. Opening week is clouded in uncertainty. Even Las Vegas sportsbooks reflect this — 12 of 16 games have point totals landing between 41-47 points, with 10 settling in between 43-46 points.

With no data to lean into and few game totals that stand apart, Week 1 rewards the bold and those willing to have strong takes on a player.

My complete Week 1 rankings include highlights of players I have significantly above or below consensus, according to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). As mentioned above, Week 1 rewards the bold, and we’ll highlight and discuss in more depth my bold takes, the players we have the strongest opinion about, who we will be investing heavily in DFS and who we hope will help reward us with a strong opening week.

Rankings will be updated throughout the week as new information comes in, including adding additional player blubs.

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

A cropped, upper-body image of Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert throwing a pass. He's in an all-white uniform


Rank Name Team Opp
1 Patrick Mahomes II KC DET
2 Jalen Hurts PHI @ NE
3 Lamar Jackson BAL HOU
4 Josh Allen BUF @ NYJ
5 Justin Herbert LAC MIA
6 Justin Fields CHI GB
7 Trevor Lawrence JAC @ IND
8 Tua Tagovailoa MIA @ LAC
9 Joe Burrow CIN @ CLE
10 Kirk Cousins MIN TB
11 Geno Smith SEA LAR
12 Dak Prescott DAL @ NYG
13 Deshaun Watson CLE CIN
14 Daniel Jones NYG DAL
15 Jared Goff DET @ KC
16 Anthony Richardson IND JAC
17 Aaron Rodgers NYJ BUF
18 Sam Howell WAS ARI
19 Russell Wilson DEN LV
20 Derek Carr NO TEN
21 Matthew Stafford LAR @ SEA
22 Jordan Love GB @ CHI
23 Kenny Pickett PIT SF
24 Bryce Young CAR @ ATL
25 Brock Purdy SF @ PIT
26 Desmond Ridder ATL CAR
27 Ryan Tannehill TEN @ NO
28 Baker Mayfield TB @ MIN
29 Jimmy Garoppolo LV @ DEN
30 C.J. Stroud HOU @ BAL
31 Mac Jones NE PHI
32 Joshua Dobbs ARI @ WAS

Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa have week-winning ceilings in what is expected to be one of the week’s highest-scoring affairs (51-point total). When the two teams met in December, Herbert threw for 367 yards, attempting 51 passes. Expect a similar volume for the Los Angeles Chargers‘ passing attack, with the Miami Dolphins also needing to rely on their passing game to keep pace. Chargers and Dolphins stacks will understandably be popular in Week 1 DFS.

Trevor Lawrence should take advantage of a rebuilding Indianapolis Colts team featuring a rookie quarterback making his first start. There is fear the Jacksonville Jaguars jump out to a lead and rely on their ground game in the second half. Still, it would not be surprising to see Lawrence continue to be featured, even with a large lead, as the new-look Jacksonville offense works on building its identity.

Like Lawrence, there is concern the Minnesota Vikings jump out to an early lead against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, limiting Kirk Cousins’ attempts. Cousins should be viewed as a low-end QB1 at home in an offense that should lean heavily on its passing game all season.

Sam Howell might not possess high-end QB1 upside. Still, the combination of a great matchup, sneaky rushing ability and bargain basement price tag ($4,900 on DraftKings) makes him an intriguing, low-cost option, especially paired with Jahan Dotson ($5,000).

Running Backs 

Rank Name Team Opp
1 Christian McCaffrey SF @ PIT
2 Austin Ekeler LAC MIA
3 Tony Pollard DAL @ NYG
4 Nick Chubb CLE CIN
5 Bijan Robinson ATL CAR
6 Josh Jacobs LV @ DEN
7 Saquon Barkley NYG DAL
8 Derrick Henry TEN @ NO
9 Joe Mixon CIN @ CLE
10 Rhamondre Stevenson NE PHI
11 Alexander Mattison MIN TB
12 Aaron Jones GB @ CHI
13 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC @ IND
14 Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ KC
15 Kenneth Walker III SEA LAR
16 J.K. Dobbins BAL HOU
17 Rachaad White TB @ MIN
18 Raheem Mostert MIA @ LAC
19 Najee Harris PIT SF
20 Jamaal Williams NO TEN
21 Dameon Pierce HOU @ BAL
22 Miles Sanders CAR @ ATL
23 Isiah Pacheco KC DET
24 Cam Akers LAR @ SEA
25 David Montgomery DET @ KC
26 James Conner ARI @ WAS
27 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS ARI
28 James Cook BUF @ NYJ
29 Javonte Williams DEN LV
30 Breece Hall NYJ BUF
31 D’Andre Swift PHI @ NE
32 Khalil Herbert CHI GB
33 Samaje Perine DEN LV
34 Deon Jackson IND JAC
35 Jerick McKinnon KC DET
36 Dalvin Cook NYJ BUF
37 Antonio Gibson WAS ARI
38 A.J. Dillon GB @ CHI
39 Zach Charbonnet SEA LAR
40 Damien Harris BUF @ NYJ
41 Elijah Mitchell SF @ PIT
42 Gus Edwards BAL HOU
43 Jaylen Warren PIT SF
44 De’Von Achane MIA @ LAC
45 Rashaad Penny PHI @ NE
46 Evan Hull IND JAC
47 Kenneth Gainwell PHI @ NE
48 Ezekiel Elliott NE PHI
49 Devin Singletary HOU @ BAL
50 Tank Bigsby JAC @ IND
51 Tyjae Spears TEN @ NO
52 Kyren Williams LAR @ SEA
53 Joshua Kelley LAC MIA
54 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC DET
55 Tyler Allgeier ATL CAR
56 Ty Chandler MIN TB

Raheem Mostert checked in at RB20 in my initial rankings as the Dolphins’ clear leadback in a projected shootout. Mostert’s early ranking is fluid: He could rise into low-end RB1 territory or slide back a couple of spots depending on De’Von Achane’s availability. If Achane is severely limited, Mostert becomes a must-play.

Goal-line opportunities should be few and far between for Rachaad White, but with Tampa Bay expected to play from behind early, White could find himself racking up receptions. As the clear every-down back, it would not surprise me to see White benefit from multiple checkdowns, giving him a high PPR floor.

Deon Jackson should pace the Colts in backfield touches with Evan Hull involved enough to cap Jackson’s ceiling in a tough matchup. Jackson is cheap in DFS and readily available for those needing a flex option in seasonal, but you are probably looking elsewhere considering Jackson and Hull’s limited upside.

J.K. Dobbins is set up to smash as the lead back for a Baltimore Ravens team favored by 9.5 points at home over Houston. Dobbins offers little as a receiver and has never exceeded 17 touches in a game, but 100 total yards and a score seem well within his range of outcomes.

Even conceding touches to A.J. Dillon, Aaron Jones is a low-end RB1 this week. Christian Watson is out and Romeo Doubs is highly questionable. The Green Bay Packers are left with a receiving room filled with unproven options, which means Green Bay could deploy a heavy dose of Jones, especially as a receiver, making him a high-floor option in PPR.

Calvin Ridley Big Money

Wide Receivers

Rank Name Team Opp
1 Justin Jefferson MIN TB
2 Ja’Marr Chase CIN @ CLE
3 Tyreek Hill MIA @ LAC
4 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ KC
5 CeeDee Lamb DAL @ NYG
6 A.J. Brown PHI @ NE
7 Stefon Diggs BUF @ NYJ
8 Garrett Wilson NYJ BUF
9 Jaylen Waddle MIA @ LAC
10 Chris Olave NO TEN
11 Davante Adams LV @ DEN
12 Keenan Allen LAC MIA
13 Calvin Ridley JAC @ IND
14 DeVonta Smith PHI @ NE
15 Tee Higgins CIN @ CLE
16 Amari Cooper CLE CIN
17 DK Metcalf SEA LAR
18 DJ Moore CHI GB
19 Drake London ATL CAR
20 Deebo Samuel SF @ PIT
21 DeAndre Hopkins TEN @ NO
22 Brandon Aiyuk SF @ PIT
23 Chris Godwin TB @ MIN
24 Mike Williams LAC MIA
25 Courtland Sutton DEN LV
26 Jahan Dotson WAS ARI
27 Mike Evans TB @ MIN
28 Tyler Lockett SEA LAR
29 Diontae Johnson PIT SF
30 Gabe Davis BUF @ NYJ
31 Jordan Addison MIN TB
32 Marquise Brown ARI @ WAS
33 Skyy Moore KC DET
34 Terry McLaurin WAS ARI
35 Michael Pittman Jr. IND JAC
36 George Pickens PIT SF
37 Christian Kirk JAC @ IND
38 Brandin Cooks DAL @ NYG
39 Treylon Burks TEN @ NO
40 Marvin Mims Jr. DEN LV
41 Nico Collins HOU @ BAL
42 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE PHI
43 Van Jefferson LAR @ SEA
44 Zay Jones JAC @ IND
45 Zay Flowers BAL HOU
46 Kadarius Toney KC DET
47 Elijah Moore CLE CIN
48 Michael Thomas NO TEN
49 Jakobi Meyers LV @ DEN
50 Rashod Bateman BAL HOU
51 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL HOU
52 Jayden Reed GB @ CHI
53 Allen Lazard NYJ BUF
54 Adam Thielen CAR @ ATL
55 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA LAR
56 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC DET
57 Darnell Mooney CHI GB
58 Tyler Boyd CIN @ CLE
59 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE CIN
60 Quentin Johnston LAC MIA
61 Romeo Doubs GB @ CHI
62 Michael Gallup DAL @ NYG
63 Curtis Samuel WAS ARI
64 Rondale Moore ARI @ WAS
65 Jonathan Mingo CAR @ ATL

Keenan Allen is set up for a massive Week 1. He is healthy, the conditions are perfect for a shootout and Quentin Johnston is expected to need time to become fully integrated into the Chargers’ offense.

Reports have been nothing but positive for Calvin Ridley. Ridley reportedly had a dominant camp, has shown an instant rapport with Lawrence and should be heavily involved in his first game as a Jaguar.

With Terry McLaurin no longer questionable for Sunday, fellow Washington wideout Jahan Dotson slides down several spots in the rankings. Even though the game between the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals features the lowest implied total of the week (38 points), Dotson could see enough volume to put up solid WR2 numbers with the potential for more if he finds the end zone.

The Denver Broncos‘ targets should be heavily consolidated between Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims. In his last four games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Sutton has a combined line of 22/259/2. Mims has flashed in his first training camp and should be considered “good chalk” as a talented rookie set to see a huge snap share and is priced at the minimum ($3,000).

Nico Collins seems to have settled into the WR1 chair for the Houston Texans, having been targeted on six of C.J. Stroud’s 20 passes this preseason. Collins has a tough matchup on the road against Baltimore. Still, with Houston expected to trail early and the Ravens being relatively vulnerable through the air, Collins could see enough volume to be a quality Week 1 flex option.

With the Packers and Panthers receiving corps in shambles, Jonathan Mingo ($3,200) and Jayden Reed ($3,000) join Marvin Mims Jr. as low-cost, rookie wide receivers who are expected to see a massive snap share in their first start.

Tight Ends

Name Name Team Opp
1 Mark Andrews BAL HOU
2 T.J. Hockenson MIN TB
3 Darren Waller NYG DAL
4 Dallas Goedert PHI @ NE
5 George Kittle SF @ PIT
6 Kyle Pitts ATL CAR
7 Tyler Higbee LAR @ SEA
8 Evan Engram JAC @ IND
9 David Njoku CLE CIN
10 Pat Freiermuth PIT SF
11 Noah Gray KC DET
12 Sam LaPorta DET @ KC
13 Gerald Everett LAC MIA
14 Jake Ferguson DAL @ NYG
15 Dalton Kincaid BUF @ NYJ
16 Dalton Schultz HOU @ BAL
17 Juwan Johnson NO TEN
18 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN @ NO
19 Taysom Hill NO TEN
20 Cole Kmet CHI GB
21 Hayden Hurst CAR @ ATL
22 Luke Musgrave GB @ CHI
23 Irv Smith Jr. CIN @ CLE
24 Adam Trautman DEN LV
25 Logan Thomas WAS ARI
26 Greg Dulcich DEN LV
27 Mike Gesicki NE PHI
28 Noah Fant SEA LAR
29 Hunter Henry NE PHI
30 Tyler Conklin NYJ BUF
31 Michael Mayer LV @ DEN
32 Durham Smythe MIA @ LAC
33 Cade Otton TB @ MIN
34 Isaiah Likely BAL HOU
35 Trey McBride ARI @ WAS
36 Dawson Knox BUF @ NYJ
37 Kylen Granson IND JAC
38 Daniel Bellinger NYG DAL

Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle are each ranked inside my top five tight ends, and each one enters the week questionable at best. To put it simply, if they play, they’re in your lineup. The reality is my tight end rankings are bound to undergo massive changes during the week.

Kelce sat, Kittle still is uncertain, and now Darren Waller looks questionable for Sunday night. Be ready for a late swap if you are relying on any of those options, which means potentially needing to save a roster spot for Daniel Bellinger in case you need a Sunday night Waller replacement.

You never know when it will be a “Taysom Hill week.” That said, with Alvin Kamara suspended and Kendre Miller looking highly questionable, red zone touches could be in Hill’s Week 1 future. I like Hill’s chances of being involved enough to rank him as a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2.

Hayden Hurst only being targeted on two of Bryce Young’s 31 preseason dropbacks is somewhat concerning, but Hurst running a route on 26 of 31 attempts offers hope the rookie quarterback will rely on his veteran tight end. Hurst is a great value at ($3,000 on DraftKings) for those looking to pay down at the position.

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