Fantasy

12/4/22

28 min read

Josh Larky's Week 13 Fantasy Rankings

By Josh Larky

week 13 fantasy rankings

Below you’ll find my Week 13 fantasy rankings for PPR/Half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-30 QB Rankings, top-48 RB Rankings, top-61 WR Rankings, and top-22 TE Rankings.

For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup, and implied team total, according to Vegas. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals have a Vegas game total of 52.5, with the Chiefs favored by 2 points (27.25 points implied for the Chiefs, 25.25 points implied for the Bengals). Seeing the implied point totals can help you understand which games are projected to be the highest scoring.

xPPR (expected PPR points) is a new stat added in Week 4. Think of this as each player’s average expected fantasy points per game based on their underlying usage.

Teams coming off a Week 12 bye: None

Teams on Week 13 bye: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers

Detailed player write-ups will be added through Wednesday night, and will appear below each set of positional rankings.

Top 30 Quarterbacks

Rank Name Pos Team Opp Team Total xPPR
1 Josh Allen QB BUF NE 24 23.4
2 Patrick Mahomes QB KC CIN 27.25 21.7
3 Jalen Hurts QB PHI TEN 24.75 23
4 Joe Burrow QB CIN KC 25.25 19.2
5 Justin Herbert QB LAC LV 26.25 17.8
6 Trevor Lawrence QB JAX DET 26.5 17.1
7 Tua Tagovailoa QB MIA SF 21 17
8 Justin Fields QB CHI GB 19.75 19.7
9 Lamar Jackson QB BAL DEN 23.5 20.7
10 Dak Prescott QB DAL IND 27.5 15.7
11 Deshaun Watson QB CLE HOU 27 -
12 Geno Smith QB SEA LA 24.25 17.5
13 Jared Goff QB DET JAX 25 15.2
14 Jimmy Garoppolo QB SF MIA 25 15
15 Derek Carr QB LV LAC 24.25 15.2
16 Aaron Rodgers QB GB CHI 23.75 13.5
17 Kirk Cousins QB MIN NYJ 24.5 17
18 Taylor Heinicke QB WAS NYG 21.5 15.4
19 Mike White QB NYJ MIN 21.5 14.7
20 Marcus Mariota QB ATL PIT 21 15.7
21 Tom Brady QB TB NO 21.5 16.2
22 Kenny Pickett QB PIT ATL 22.5 14.2
23 Daniel Jones QB NYG WAS 19 17.2
24 Ryan Tannehill QB TEN PHI 19.75 14.3
25 Russell Wilson QB DEN BAL 15 15.7
26 Matt Ryan QB IND DAL 16.25 15.1
27 Mac Jones QB NE BUF 19.5 13.3
28 Andy Dalton QB NO TB 18 15.2
29 John Wolford QB LA SEA 16.75 12.6
30 Kyle Allen QB HOU CLE 20 12.6
  • Josh Allen has at least 19 fantasy points in all but one game this season, with 27 or more fantasy points in seven of 11 games this season. He remains the QB1 every week due to his combination of ceiling and floor.
  • Patrick Mahomes has at least 24 fantasy points in seven of 11 games this season. Even with a more depleted receiving crew the past two weeks, he's still averaged 23.4 fantasy points over this stretch. Jalen Hurts has a potentially difficult matchup against the Titans, as they haven't allowed an opponent to score more than two TDs against them since Week 2.
  • Joe Burrow is quietly fourth in fantasy points per game (22.9) among QBs, behind only Allen (26.4), Mahomes (26.3), and Hurts (24.8). He faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed every QB (not named Malik Willis or Bryce Perkins) to throw for multiple TDs against them. Five QBs have crested 20 fantasy points against the Chiefs, and Burrow should make it six after this week. Ja'Marr Chase likely returns, and the KC-CIN game has the highest Vegas game total of the weekend.
  • Justin Herbert has at least 274 passing yards and two TDs in back-to-back games with Keenan Allen finally healthy again. He’s averaged 26 rushing yards per game over his past three games, too. He now faces the Raiders in Week 13, who allow the fifth highest yards per attempt to opposing QBs, per The Edge. Football Outsiders agrees, as they have Vegas as the stone worst secondary via passing DVOA.
  • Trevor Lawrence has at least 18 fantasy points in five of his past six games, and just torched Baltimore for 321 passing yards on 8.7 yards per attempt. He now heads to Detroit’s indoor stadium, facing a much weaker opponent. The Jaguars have the third highest implied team total of Week 13, and Lawrence is in for a big day through the air. Icing on the cake is the Detroit Lions allow opposing QBs to average 24.4 fantasy points per game against them, most in the NFL, per The Edge.
  • Tua Tagovailoa faces a SF defense that plays the seventh highest percentage of zone coverage in the league. Against zone coverage, Tua averages 9.5 yards per pass attempt - only Jalen Hurts has been more efficient against zone this year. The 49ers are a difficult matchup on paper, but when we dive deeper, Tua and the Dolphins should roll against their zone defense. Patrick Mahomes and Marcus Mariota are the only QBs to score 15 or more fantasy points against San Francisco this season (both had at least 24), and Tua has a strong chance to join those two after Week 13.
  • Justin Fields practiced in full on Thursday, and should return to game action in Week 13. The matchup against the Packers is a difficult one, but his high rushing floor should buoy what should be a very rough day through the air. Remember, Darnell Mooney is now out for the season, so he'll be throwing to Chase Claypool as his new WR1.
  • Lamar Jackson has averaged just 17.4 fantasy points per game since Week 4. He has more games with no TD passes (two) than multiple TD passes (one) during this stretch. Without Rashod Bateman healthy, this passing offense has struggled, and Lamar has averaged under 8.0 yards per attempt in all but one game this season. This is not a high volume passing offense, so Lamar needs to get it done with his legs to score fantasy points. He only has three rushing TDs this season (that number likely regresses in the upward direction), so I'd expect him to average more than 17 points per game rest of season, as his passing and rushing TD rates are unsustainably low. He faces a Broncos defense that hasn't allowed more than 23 points to an opponent since October 2nd. This type of matchup would normally land Lamar in the QB9-QB12 range, but the QBs behind him in the top-12 all have their own warts this week, too.
  • The Colts have yet to allow a QB to reach 280 passing yards this season. Only two QBs have thrown multiple TDs against the Colts (Derek Carr and Davis Mills each threw two), but they haven't faced many good QBs, either. I'm including a screenshot from our flagship tool, The Edge, below so you understand my ranking for Dak. Note that Taylor Heinicke's 279 passing yards are the most against IND this season. Dak is one of a handful of high-end QBs in a difficult spot for fantasy in Week 13.

The Edge QBs vs IND

  • Deshaun Watson returns to NFL game action for the first time in two years. I’m expecting a conservative game plan against Houston, as Nick Chubb should be able to run wild against them. I’d anticipate 25-30 pass attempts from Watson as the team eases him back from suspension. At least 10 women who have accused him of sexual assault will be attending this game, and the emotional weight of confronting his past does not set Watson up for a ceiling game from a fantasy perspective.
  • The Rams are a good matchup for a fantasy QB on paper, as they're 26th in passing defense DVOA. However, with Bryce Perkins likely to continue starting, and with Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, and Aaron Donald all OUT for the foreseeable future, this is a tanking team unable to put up offensive points. The Seahawks will likely take part in a slow-paced game where the Rams aren't pushing them to score. Geno Smith should be *fine* in Week 13, but this is not the type of game environment that typically leads to a high-end fantasy performance. Looking at Geno specifically, he has now thrown multiple TD passes in five straight games, as well as in eight of his past nine. He has at least 19 fantasy points in seven of his past nine games.
  • The Jaguars allow the eighth most passing yards (257) per game to opposing QBs, per The Edge, and Jared Goff gets to play at home in a dome. He's been fairly up-and-down in recent weeks, but the matchup pushed him over the top for me, as he's my suggested QB streamer this week.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo is my other preferred streamer this week, as MIA is a pass funnel defense. They allow the 11th most passing yards per game to opposing QBs (248), while allowing the second-fewest yards per game to RBs (65). Christian McCaffrey has tendinitis in his knee and Elijah Mitchell is likely OUT for the rest of the season. The 49ers will need to win this matchup through the air with Jimmy Garoppolo.
  • On Thanksgiving, Mac Jones had his first game of 2022 with multiple TD passes (two TD passes, 382 passing yards). It was his first game topping 19 fantasy points (23.3), as well. He remains nothing more than a 2-QB league option each week, as he lacks consistent pass volume, rushing upside, and elite receiving options.

Top 48 Running Backs

Rank Name Pos Team Opp Team Total xPPR
1 Austin Ekeler RB LAC LV 26.25 20.5
2 Josh Jacobs RB LV LAC 24.25 19.6
3 Travis Etienne RB JAX DET 26.50 12.7
4 Nick Chubb RB CLE HOU 27.00 15
5 Derrick Henry RB TEN PHI 19.75 17.7
6 Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE BUF 19.50 16.3
7 Dameon Pierce RB HOU CLE 20.00 13.9
8 Christian McCaffrey RB SF MIA 25.00 17.2
9 Samaje Perine RB CIN KC 25.25 6.9
10 Aaron Jones RB GB CHI 23.75 14.2
11 Jonathan Taylor RB IND DAL 16.25 16.8
12 Kenneth Walker RB SEA LA 24.25 12.8
13 Dalvin Cook RB MIN NYJ 24.50 15.2
14 David Montgomery RB CHI GB 19.75 11.2
15 Alvin Kamara RB NO TB 18.00 15.5
16 Saquon Barkley RB NYG WAS 19.00 18.8
17 D'Andre Swift RB DET JAX 25.00 11
18 Tony Pollard RB DAL IND 27.50 11.5
19 Jeff Wilson RB MIA SF 21.00 10.4
20 Latavius Murray RB DEN BAL 15.00 10.2
21 Jamaal Williams RB DET JAX 25.00 14.2
22 Brian Robinson RB WAS NYG 21.50 10.8
23 Rachaad White RB TB NO 21.50 7.9
24 Devin Singletary RB BUF NE 24.00 12.5
25 Antonio Gibson RB WAS NYG 21.50 12.6
26 Zonovan Knight RB NYJ MIN 21.50 10.9
27 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL IND 27.50 10.5
28 Najee Harris RB PIT ATL 22.50 13.5
29 Miles Sanders RB PHI TEN 24.75 12.5
30 Isiah Pacheco RB KC CIN 27.25 6.1
31 Gus Edwards RB BAL DEN 23.50 10.9
32 Leonard Fournette RB TB NO 21.50 15.3
33 AJ Dillon RB GB CHI 23.75 9.4
34 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL PIT 21.00 11.2
35 Kyren Williams RB LA SEA 16.75 6.1
36 Jaylen Warren RB PIT ATL 22.50 4.4
37 Jerick McKinnon RB KC CIN 27.25 7.9
38 Raheem Mostert RB MIA SF 21.00 10.3
39 Ty Johnson RB NYJ MIN 21.50 2.7
40 Tyler Allgeier RB ATL PIT 21.00 7.8
41 Tyrion Davis-Price RB SF MIA 25.00 4.4
42 Darrynton Evans RB CHI GB 19.75 3
43 JaMycal Hasty RB JAX DET 26.50 4.2
44 Kareem Hunt RB CLE HOU 27.00 8.9
45 James Cook RB BUF NE 24.00 4.7
46 Cam Akers RB LA SEA 16.75 5.7
47 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI TEN 24.75 4.7
48 Alexander Mattison RB MIN NYJ 24.50 4.5
  • Austin Ekeler has at least 11 fantasy points in every game this year, with at least 18 points in eight of 11 games. He's the ultimate combination of ceiling and floor against a Raiders defense allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs.

  • Josh Jacobs had 303 total yards against the Seahawks last week, 75 more yards than any other RB has in a game this season. He now faces the Chargers, who allow 5.6 yards per carry to opposing backs, highest in the NFL. Unfortuantely, Jacobs re-aggravated his calf in Week 12, so while he should play in Week 13, the team may limit his touches after riding him for 39 touches last week.
  • Travis Etienne was cleared to return from his foot injury in Week 12 but the team held him out as a pre-caution. He’ll be well-rested for this matchup against Detroit, and should reach 100 total yards with one to two TDs in this contest. If it appears his status is in question Friday afternoon after final team practice reports are released, I'll adjust his ranking accordingly.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has at least five targets in eight of his past nine games, totaling at least 12.9 fantasy points in all nine games. He remains a mid-range RB1 each week based on that floor combined with his ceiling (six of his past nine with at least 19.5 fantasy points). Damien Harris has already been ruled OUT for Thursday night, leaving Rhamondre to get all the high value touches against Buffalo.
  • Dameon Pierce has been frustrating in fantasy the past two weeks, totaling 16 rushing yards on 15 carries, and 17 receiving yards on nine targets. That amounts to just 8.3 PPR points over a two-game stretch. However, fight the urge to bench him. The Cleveland Browns allow over 29 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, along with 5.2 yards per carry, per The Edge. Pierce is in the perfect bounce back spot for a ceiling game.
  • Christian McCaffrey revealed he's dealing with knee tendinitis, so the team has been limiting his practice and in-game reps. CMC has only reached 20 touches in one game with SF, and faces a Dolphins defense allowing just 65 rushing yards per game to RBs (3.6 YPC). McCaffrey will need to get it done through the air in this contest, and his limited rushing ceiling is the reason he falls down to RB8 this week.
  • It appears Joe Mixon will not be able to clear concussion protocol in time. Assuming he cannot go, I'd rank Samaje Perine in a fairly similar spot. Last week without Mixon active, Perine handled 17 of 19 RB carries, and ran 29 of 38 RB routes, catching four of seven targets. This is an RB1 caliber workload, and the Chiefs do allow the 12th most fantasy points per game to RBs. While opponents don't run often against KC due to negative game scripts, they allow the third most receiving yards per game to RBs - Perine or Mixon will do damage in the receiving game this week.
  • David Montgomery is an every week high-end RB2 type with Khalil Herbert on IR. He’s averaged 16 carries, 73 rushing yards, three catches, 44 receiving yards, and 17.7 fantasy points per game the past two weeks. The Packers give up 5.0 yards per carry to RBs this year, so Montgomery should have decent efficiency on the ground in Week 13.
  • Saquon Barkley was force-fed 37 combined carries and targets over a four-day period in Weeks 11 and 12, putting up just 61 rushing yards on 26 carries, while totaling 26 receiving yards on 11 targets. The nightmare stretch should last as least one more week, as he faces the Washington Commanders. No RB has reached 75 rushing yards against Washington since Week 5, and the Giants’ depleted offensive line won’t be doing Saquon any favors in Week 13.
  • Ezekiel Elliott returned from a knee injury in Week 11, so we can reasonably assume he was fully healthy (or close to it) in Week 12. If that’s the case, this game was the first time all season that a healthy Zeke was out-snapped by Tony Pollard. While Zeke was more efficient in Week 12, I’d expect Pollard to have the efficiency edge rest of season. The Colts are a stingy defense on the ground (3.8 YPC allowed), but they do give up the 11th most receiving yards per game to RBs. This is shaping up to be a Pollard week. The Dallas duo's Week 12 usage is shown below.
Player Snaps Carries (RZ) Routes Targets Total Yards PPR
Tony Pollard 39 18 (1) 8 2 61 8.1
Ezekiel Elliott 36 16 (1) 12 1 95 16.5
  • Latavius Murray received bell cow treatment in Week 12, with Melvin Gordon waived and Chase Edmonds dealing with a high ankle sprain. Murray had 13 of 15 RB carries and ran 26 of the 33 RB routes. He’s an RB2-type based on usage moving forward, despite operating in a bottom-5 offense. He is likely inefficient against Baltimore, but he did show that he can reach double digit fantasy points without finding the end zone in Week 12, giving him a decent floor.
  • The Washington backfield remains difficult to predict week-to-week. After Antonio Gibson out-touched Brian Robinson 21-15 in Week 11, Robinson handled 18 carries to Gibson’s nine in Week 12, with each garnering three targets. Both are worth starting in fantasy each week, as Robinson (11.7 PPR/game) and Gibson (10.8 PPR/game) are each providing RB3 type value since J.D. McKissic’s injury. I give the Week 13 edge to Brian Robinson, as he is getting more rushing work, and the Giants allow the second-most yards per carry (5.2) to RBs, per The Edge.
  • I'm assuming a 60-40 split in favor of Rachaad White against the Saints in Week 13. Leonard Fournette was close to suiting up last week after logging several limited practice sessions. This could become a gross backfield for fantasy football if the split is truly 50-50.
  • Michael Carter sprained his ankle in Week 12. Zonovan Knight took over the majority of the work once Carter left, finishing with 14 carries and three targets for 103 total yards (13.3 PPR points). He’s a worthy player to target on waivers, as Carter likely misses multiple weeks, and the Jets’ offense with Mike White was really humming overall. Ty Johnson is also worth a waiver claim, as he tallied 62 rushing yards on just five carries, scoring on a 32 yard run. He also brought in one of two targets for 16 yards in the receiving game (14.8 PPR points). I’d expect a 65-35 committee in Knight’s favor against Minnesota.
  • D’Andre Swift continues to have elite usage anytime he’s out on the field. His issue is how often the team lets him take carries and run routes. Two of Swift’s five carries were in the red zone, and he was targeted eight times on only 14 routes, with three of those targets coming in the red zone, as well. Swift should score a TD most weeks with this type of usage, but it’s tough for him to have any high-end fantasy viability until he’s splitting rushing work closer to 50-50 with Jamaal Williams.
  • Najee Harris returned in a limited fashion to practice on Friday, putting him on track to suit up in Week 13 against ATL. I'm skeptical about his workload for this week, after leaving Week 12 early due to injury. I have Najee ranked lower than usual, with backup Jaylen Warren ranked higher than most weeks. A 60/40 split wouldn't surprise me this week, though this just hasn't been a backfield to target in fantasy - only LAR RBs have scored fewer fantasy points per game than PIT RBs.
  • Miles Sanders had a season-high 143 rushing yards, scoring twice in Week 12 on Monday Night Football. He has been quite predictable this season, excelling in easier matchups while floundering against the top run defenses. Week 13 against the Titans (3.8 YPC allowed to RBs) is a very difficult matchup, and he is nothing more than a low-end RB2 this upcoming week, despite his outstanding Week 12 performance. Players like D'Andre Swift carry a floor of around eight fantasy points each week, but Sanders is at risk for five or six points in this game if he cannot find the end zone. The Titans haven't allowed an offense to score more than two total TDs since Week 2 against Buffalo.
  • Gus Edwards returned from injury in Week 12, handling 16 of 19 RB carries. He will never have much pass game involvement, but he’s a fantasy RB3 most weeks, as the grinder back in an efficient rushing offense. Given the Ravens’ pass game struggles, Edwards’ six red zone carries from last week shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, as the Ravens will likely continue to lean heavily on the run game in scoring range. Denver sucks the life out of fantasy points and NFL points each week, so Edwards is ranked slightly lower than usual.
  • Since returning from injury four weeks ago, Cordarrelle Patterson has not had more than 13 carries, 52 rushing yards, or 19 receiving yards in any contest. He’s an RB3 type unless he can take over more work in this backfield. Tyler Allgeier has averaged more yards per game over this stretch, on nearly as many touches. Think of this as a 1A/1B committee in a below average scoring offense.

Top 61 Wide Receivers

Rank Name Pos Team Opp Team Total xPPR
1 Davante Adams WR LV LAC 24.25 17.3
2 Stefon Diggs WR BUF NE 24.00 18.7
3 Justin Jefferson WR MIN NYJ 24.50 18.8
4 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET JAX 25.00 15.2
5 Tyreek Hill WR MIA SF 21.00 16.3
6 Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN KC 25.25 17.3
7 Christian Kirk WR JAX DET 26.50 14.2
8 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL IND 27.50 15.4
9 Keenan Allen WR LAC LV 26.25 9.5
10 A.J. Brown WR PHI TEN 24.75 13.7
11 Tee Higgins WR CIN KC 25.25 11.4
12 Jaylen Waddle WR MIA SF 21.00 12.4
13 Amari Cooper WR CLE HOU 27.00 14.2
14 Terry McLaurin WR WAS NYG 21.50 12
15 Chris Godwin WR TB NO 21.50 14.5
16 Deebo Samuel WR SF MIA 25.00 13.6
17 DK Metcalf WR SEA LA 24.25 14.2
18 Chris Olave WR NO TB 18.00 13.8
19 Tyler Lockett WR SEA LA 24.25 11.3
20 Gabe Davis WR BUF NE 24.00 11
21 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ MIN 21.50 12.1
22 Christian Watson WR GB CHI 23.75 8
23 Mike Evans WR TB NO 21.50 14.3
24 Brandon Aiyuk WR SF MIA 25.00 11.5
25 Treylon Burks WR TEN PHI 19.75 8.7
26 DeVonta Smith WR PHI TEN 24.75 10.8
27 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR KC CIN 27.25 10.2
28 Josh Palmer WR LAC LV 26.25 11.6
29 Courtland Sutton WR DEN BAL 15.00 13.5
30 Michael Pittman WR IND DAL 16.25 12.8
31 Zay Jones WR JAX DET 26.50 13.6
32 Allen Lazard WR GB CHI 23.75 12
33 Adam Thielen WR MIN NYJ 24.50 12
34 Darius Slayton WR NYG WAS 19.00 7.4
35 Jakobi Meyers WR NE BUF 19.50 10.3
36 Diontae Johnson WR PIT ATL 22.50 13.3
37 Nico Collins WR HOU CLE 20.00 10.7
38 Donovan Peoples-Jones WR CLE HOU 27.00 10.2
39 George Pickens WR PIT ATL 22.50 9.9
40 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN BAL 15.00 10.4
41 Elijah Moore WR NYJ MIN 21.50 6.6
42 Parris Campbell WR IND DAL 16.25 8.2
43 Tyler Boyd WR CIN KC 25.25 8.8
44 Skyy Moore WR KC CIN 27.25 4.1
45 Mack Hollins WR LV LAC 24.25 9.7
46 D.J. Chark WR DET JAX 25.00 9.4
47 Chris Moore WR HOU CLE 20.00 6.5
48 Curtis Samuel WR WAS NYG 21.50 10.9
49 Julio Jones WR TB NO 21.50 8.3
50 Chase Claypool WR CHI GB 19.75 9.4
51 Jameson Williams WR DET JAX 25.00 -
52 Michael Gallup WR DAL IND 27.50 8.8
53 Van Jefferson WR LA SEA 16.75 7.2
54 Drake London WR ATL PIT 21.00 9.3
55 Jarvis Landry WR NO TB 18.00 8.4
56 DeAndre Carter WR LAC LV 26.25 7.5
57 Robert Woods WR TEN PHI 19.75 8.4
58 Corey Davis WR NYJ MIN 21.50 8.7
59 Devin Duvernay WR BAL DEN 23.50 8.2
60 Jahan Dotson WR WAS NYG 21.50 7.4
61 Demarcus Robinson WR BAL DEN 23.50 6.9
  • Davante Adams came into this game with three straight performances of at least 13 targets and 126 receiving yards. While his seven-catch (11 target), 74-yard game was disappointing, he did still command a 31% target share. He remains the WR1 rest of season given the injury uncertainty surrounding Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller – both on IR.
  • Ja'Marr Chase most likely returns in Week 13. I'm unsure what his snap count will be, but we just saw Marquise Brown run 100% of the routes in his Week 12 return from injury. I don't like fading a talent on Chase's level, and the Chiefs allow the seventh most yards per game to WRs in 2022. I'm linking an excellent thread on Chase's recovery timeline.

  • The Detroit Lions simply do not cover slot WRs. 11 WRs have at least 57 yards from the slot in 11 games from 2022. 13 WRs have double digit fantasy points from the slot, and the Lions have allowed ten TDs to WRs/TEs from the slot. Christian Kirk has a 20% or higher target share in all but one game this season, and Jacksonville will be throwing often against the Lions in an indoor matchup. Kirk is a strong WR1 this week.
  • Keenan Allen increased his route participation from 76% in Week 11 to 92% in Week 12. He is teed up to smash in a Week 13 matchup against the Raiders – the worst secondary in the NFL via Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
  • Amari Cooper has reached ten targets or 131 yards in seven of 11 games this season. He’s averaged 16.2 PPR points per game this season, and gets Deshaun Watson back in Week 13. Value Cooper as a low-end WR1 type rest of season, with only Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jaylen Waddle as clearly better fantasy options going forward. I'm unsure what the chemistry between Watson and Cooper will be this week, but the Texans are a team that has clearly given up in the midst of a lost season. I'd expect Watson to key in on Cooper as his first read quite often while he gets comfortable returning to game action.
  • Terry McLaurin has a 25% or higher target share in six straight games. The Giants are ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA.
  • Deebo Samuel has just a 20.7% target share since McCaffrey joined the 49ers. He's averaged only 11.6 fantasy points per game during this stretch, and he's tough to trust as a high-end fantasy option each week. The matchup against Miami's pass funnel defense is a good one, but Brandon Aiyuk has a 21.7% target share and 15 fantasy points per game with McCaffrey. I lean Deebo slightly still due to his track record, but the gap is narrow between the two.
  • Christian Watson has at least six targets and 21 fantasy points in three straight games, with six TDs and four end zone targets in that span. The absurd TD rate will come back to Earth, but the underlying usage is still that of a top-30 weekly option, as he should see six to eight downfield targets most weeks. Chicago's pass defense has turned into a big play factory, as they've allowed five WRs over the past five weeks to reach 18.8 fantasy points.
  • Treylon Burks has at least six targets in all three games since returning from IR. Ryan Tannehill has thrown for at least 255 yards in each game, as well. Burks is a matchup nightmare, and the Titans will likely be trailing against the Eagles. I want to keep betting on the talented first round rookie.
  • Josh Palmer has been on an absolute tear the past four games, averaging 8.8 targets, six receptions, 78 yards, 93.5 air yards, and 16.8 PPR points per game. He's been over 100 yards in two of his past four, and has at least seven targets in each of his past five games. He now faces the Raiders pass defense, ranked 32nd by Football Outsiders' DVOA. Mike Williams is OUT again this week, so Palmer will remain the Chargers' WR2 behind Keenan Allen.
  • Courtland Sutton has at least 66 yards and 12.6 fantasy points each of the past three weeks without Jerry Jeudy. While Jeudy probably returns this week after logging a limited practice on Friday, I'm unsure if he plays a full snap count. At least for Week 13, I'm assuming Sutton is the clear-cut DEN WR1, facing a Ravens pass defense allowing 191 receiving yards per game to WRs, third most in the NFL - via The Edge.
  • Zay Jones has at least eight targets in six of ten games this season, and faces Detroit in a dome. While he won't replicate last week's 14 target, 11 catch, 145 yard performance, that demonstrates the ceiling Jones has.
  • Allen Lazard has been out-targeted by Christian Watson in two of the past three games, and I'd expect the second round rookie to be the Packers' WR1 rest of season. Lazard still has value as the team's WR2, but his weekly floor has been lowered. Week 12 was his first game sine Week 3 that he didn't command at least 20% of the team's targets, so the role has still been fantasy relevant; however, his days as a top-20 fantasy option are no longer.
  • Darius Slayton has at least 48 receiving yards in six of his past seven games, with at least three receptions in six of seven, too. Washington has been playing lockdown defense recently, holding the Colts, Vikings, Eagles, Texans, and Falcons to 21 or fewer points in each game over the past five weeks. Despite the mediocre matchup, the Commanders' defensive line should more than overwhelm the Giants in the run game, so the Giants' path to winning this game offensively will be through the air.
  • Nico Collins is the entire HOU pass attack, now that Brandin Cooks has been ruled OUT (calf). Collins has at least 9.8 fantasy points in five of his past six games, and faces a below average CLE secondary. The ceiling isn't high in this Houston passing offense, but he's a nice floor play this week. Chris Moore should slide into the WR2 role, and he has at least four targets in four of his past six games. Moore likely gives you six to ten fantasy points, and should be started only in the deepest of leagues.
  • Those willing to take on extra risk should start Elijah Moore this week. He only ran a route on 46% of Mike White’s dropbacks last week, but he brought in both targets for 64 yards and a TD. Moore appears to be out of the doghouse after publicly criticizing his teammates earlier this season. The Vikings allow the third most fantasy points to opposing WRs, and Moore has a high ceiling with Mike White once again under center.
  • In Kyle Allen’s first start of 2022, he targeted Nico Collins 24% of the time, and Brandin Cooks just 13% of the time. The disappointing season for Cooks continues, and I wouldn’t confidently start any HOU WR in fantasy moving forward.
  • Skyy Moore is flex viable moving forward with Mecole Hardman on IR and Marquez Valdes-Scantling struggling to provide any type of consistent production.

  • Jameson Williams will make his season debut on Sunday. He's expected to be on a snap count. Even if a 30% snap share, he could still catch a long TD with his game-breaking speed. I'm optimistic he'll be efficient on his opportunities against JAX, but there is a capped ceiling here. He's ranked at a place where I wouldn't beat myself up if he runs six routes and catches his lone pass for 18 yards.

Top 22 Tight Ends

Rank Name Pos Team Opp Team Total xPPR
1 Travis Kelce TE KC CIN 27.25 16.8
2 Mark Andrews TE BAL DEN 23.50 14
3 T.J. Hockenson TE MIN NYJ 24.50 11.9
4 George Kittle TE SF MIA 25.00 9.8
5 Dalton Schultz TE DAL IND 27.50 9
6 Gerald Everett TE LAC LV 26.25 9.4
7 Pat Freiermuth TE PIT ATL 22.50 11.4
8 Foster Moreau TE LV LAC 24.25 7.6
9 Hayden Hurst TE CIN KC 25.25 8.2
10 Cole Kmet TE CHI GB 19.75 6.9
11 Harrison Bryant TE CLE HOU 27.00 5.1
12 Dawson Knox TE BUF NE 24.00 7.1
13 Greg Dulcich TE DEN BAL 15.00 8.1
14 Logan Thomas TE WAS NYG 21.50 6.9
15 Tyler Conklin TE NYJ MIN 21.50 7.9
16 Evan Engram TE JAX DET 26.50 7.8
17 Daniel Bellinger TE NYG WAS 19.00 4.8
18 Adam Trautman TE NO TB 18.00 2.7
19 Tyler Higbee TE LA SEA 16.75 8.8
20 Robert Tonyan TE GB CHI 23.75 6.8
21 Taysom Hill TE NO TB 18.00 6.4
22 Mike Gesicki TE MIA SF 21.00 6.5
  • Mark Andrews hasn't topped 12.3 fantasy points since Week 6, but he's had at least seven targets in back-to-back weeks, reaching 50 yards in both games. In Week 12, he had two red zone targets (one end zone), so the role is still there. I'd lean TJ Hockenson for floor if you're concerned, but Andrews still has elite usage for a TE. I have Andrews ahead of Hockenson based on track record, but if you're scouting the past month, I wouldn't fault you for preferring Hockenson.
  • T.J. Hockenson has at least nine targets or 11.5 fantasy points in all four games with the Vikings. After six red zone (two end zone) targets through three games, Hockenson had two more red zone (one end zone) targets in Week 12, snagging his first TD with Minnesota. He remains the fantasy TE3 rest of season behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
  • Only Travis Kelce has more yards per game since Week 3 than David Njoku at the TE position. Deshaun Watson’s return should result in better production for all the starting pass-catchers, and Njoku is a high-end TE1 each week.
  • Dalton Schultz has at least four receptions in four of his past five games, with at least 9.9 fantasy points in all four. He's the lowest-ranked consistent producer at the TE position, and there's a large tier drop after him in my rankings.
  • Pat Freiermuth has at least six fantasy points in all but one game this season, and 36 or more yards in all but two games this season. He lacks a true ceiling in that Pittsburgh offense, but he's a better floor play than Gerald Everett if you want to lock in some type of production for Week 13.
  • Foster Moreau has at least 28 yards in each of his past eight games, and has totaled 5 EZ targets over his past 3 games, scoring twice in that span. There aren’t many strong TE options this week, and Moreau is a top-10 option in all formats against the Chargers.
  • David Njoku has not practiced all week, so I'm assuming Harrison Bryant will draw the start. He's taken on a lesser role than Njoku when starting, but given the TEs this week, he's still a viable option in 12-team leagues.
  • Dawson Knox plays heavy snaps for a high-scoring Buffalo Bills team. He has at least nine fantasy points in four of his past six games, and now faces the Patriots, who allow the eighth most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. He’s a top-12 option on a difficult week for the TE position.

These Week 13 fantasy rankings will be updated throughout the week. Make sure to check this post each day throughout the week as the news hits.

WATCH MORE: Waiver Wire Week 13 with Larky and Reynolds

 

Tags: 2022 NFL Week 13, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Rankings See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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