Fantasy

1/1/23

17 min read

Josh Larky's NFL Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Josh Larky

week 17 fantasy rankings

Below you’ll find my Week 17 fantasy rankings for points per reception (PPR) and half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-32 QB Rankings, top-49 RB Rankings, top-57 WR Rankings, top-23 TE Rankings and top-15 DST rankings.

For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup and implied team total, according to Vegas. For example, the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals have a Vegas game total of 49.5 with the Bills favored by 1.5 points (25.5 points implied for the Bills, 24 points implied for the Bengals). Seeing the implied point totals can help you understand which games are projected to be high scoring.

xPPR (expected PPR points) is each player’s average expected fantasy points per game, based on their underlying usage.

Detailed player write-ups will be added through Thursday, and will appear below each set of positional rankings.

Top 32 Quarterbacks

Rank Name Pos Team Opp Team Total xPPR
1 Patrick Mahomes QB KC DEN 29.25 20.9
2 Josh Allen QB BUF CIN 25.5 23.2
3 Justin Fields QB CHI DET 23 18.7
4 Joe Burrow QB CIN BUF 24 20.1
5 Justin Herbert QB LAC LA 23.5 17
6 Jared Goff QB DET CHI 29 16
7 Gardner Minshew QB PHI NO 25.5 8
8 Dak Prescott QB DAL TEN 25.5 17.1
9 Trevor Lawrence QB JAX HOU 23.75 18.3
10 Mike White QB NYJ SEA 21.75 14.8
11 Aaron Rodgers QB GB MIN 25.5 14.5
12 Kirk Cousins QB MIN GB 22.5 17.6
13 Geno Smith QB SEA NYJ 19.75 17.1
14 Brock Purdy QB SF LV 25.5 12.1
15 Russell Wilson QB DEN KC 15.75 15.3
16 Daniel Jones QB NYG IND 22.5 16.5
17 Deshaun Watson QB CLE WAS 19 15.2
18 Tom Brady QB TB CAR 21 16.1
19 Teddy Bridgewater QB MIA NE 19.75 7
20 Carson Wentz QB WAS CLE 21.5 14.7
21 Sam Darnold QB CAR TB 18 15.8
22 Tyler Huntley QB BAL PIT 19.5 13.3
23 Mac Jones QB NE MIA 22.25 12.8
24 Davis Mills QB HOU JAX 19.75 13.1
25 Kenny Pickett QB PIT BAL 16.5 13.5
26 Baker Mayfield QB LA LAC 17 12.1
27 Desmond Ridder QB ATL ARI 22.5 12.8
28 Andy Dalton QB NO PHI 18.5 13.6
29 David Blough QB ARI ATL 18.5 -
30 Nick Foles QB IND NYG 17 8.9
31 Josh Dobbs QB TEN DAL 15 -
32 Jarrett Stidham QB LV SF 19.5 3.7
  • Justin Fields disappointed in Week 16, with only ten fantasy points against the Bills. However, that snapped a run of seven straight games with at least 21 fantasy points; don't let one bad game deter you. He faces Detroit in dome conditions this week, and the Lions allow 23.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, 10% higher than any other team, via The Edge.
  • Jared Goff faces a Bears secondary that has been ravaged the past couple months. Since Week 8, the Bears allow 8.4 yards per attempt to QBs, most in the league, via The Edge. This game is indoors, and the Lions have averaged over 29 points per game their past seven games - which includes the rainy road game against the Jets. The Lions' playoff hopes are still alive, and Jamaal Williams is banged up. Without their grinder back, the game plan should be even more pass-heavy than usual against a beatable secondary.
  • Gardner Minshew should start again this week against the Saints, and he was impressive against Dallas last week. He completed 24 of 40 passes for 355 yards, two TDs, and two picks. He also ran twice in the red zone (once at the goal line), scoring on the ground. Overall, he put up 26.7 fantasy points. The Saints are on the verge of being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, while an Eagles win clinches the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Minshew is clearly trusted - evidence is his 40 pass attempts last week - and plays with a top-flight offensive line and supporting cast. He's feisty with his legs in the red zone. This is exactly what you want from your fantasy QB. He'd be ranked even higher if he weren't facing a strong Saints pass defense allowing just 6.3 yards per attempt, via The Edge.
  • Aaron Rodgers faces the Vikings, who have allowed eight of the past ten QBs faced to top 300 passing yards. I have slight concern over what this offense could look like without Christian Watson - monitoring his hip injury. However, Aaron Jones is also banged up, and it's the Vikings, so I expect a pass-heavy and relatively efficient game plan from the Packers this week.
  • Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson are the only QBs that threw for multiple TD passes against the Jets this year. I'm not optimistic for Geno Smith against a top-3 pass defense, as the Seahawks have been in a free fall the past month.
  • Russell Wilson is a good streamer this week, as the Chiefs have allowed 31 passing TDs this year, five more than any other team. Russ threw for 247 yards and three TDs against the Chiefs in their last meeting, and should have a decent day overall, with 230 passing yards and a couple TDs as the expectation.

Top 49 Running Backs

Rank Name Pos Team Opp Team Total xPPR
1 Christian McCaffrey RB SF LV 25.50 17.9
2 Dalvin Cook RB MIN GB 22.50 15
3 Austin Ekeler RB LAC LA 23.50 20
4 Saquon Barkley RB NYG IND 22.50 18.7
5 Travis Etienne RB JAX HOU 23.75 13.3
6 James Conner RB ARI ATL 18.50 15
7 Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE MIA 22.25 15.1
8 Kenneth Walker RB SEA NYJ 19.75 12.2
9 Leonard Fournette RB TB CAR 21.00 15.7
10 Joe Mixon RB CIN BUF 24.00 17.8
11 Brian Robinson RB WAS CLE 21.50 11.3
12 Jerick McKinnon RB KC DEN 29.25 9.5
13 Tyler Allgeier RB ATL ARI 22.50 8.7
14 Aaron Jones RB GB MIN 25.50 13.8
15 Alvin Kamara RB NO PHI 18.50 16.1
16 Cam Akers RB LA LAC 17.00 9
17 D'Andre Swift RB DET CHI 29.00 11.9
18 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL TEN 25.50 12.4
19 Nick Chubb RB CLE WAS 19.00 14.2
20 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL PIT 19.50 9.4
21 Miles Sanders RB PHI NO 25.50 12.5
22 Josh Jacobs RB LV SF 19.50 17.8
23 Zonovan Knight RB NYJ SEA 21.75 10.2
24 Najee Harris RB PIT BAL 16.50 13.5
25 Zack Moss RB IND NYG 17.00 4
26 Latavius Murray RB DEN KC 15.75 10.5
27 Isiah Pacheco RB KC DEN 29.25 7.4
28 Devin Singletary RB BUF CIN 25.50 12
29 David Montgomery RB CHI DET 23.00 12.2
30 Rachaad White RB TB CAR 21.00 8.8
31 D'Onta Foreman RB CAR TB 18.00 8.3
32 Jamaal Williams RB DET CHI 29.00 12.7
33 Raheem Mostert RB MIA NE 19.75 9.3
34 James Cook RB BUF CIN 25.50 5.9
35 AJ Dillon RB GB MIN 25.50 10.1
36 Malik Davis RB DAL TEN 25.50 3.6
37 Jeff Wilson RB MIA NE 19.75 9.4
38 Gus Edwards RB BAL PIT 19.50 7.5
39 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR TB 18.00 5
40 Khalil Herbert RB CHI DET 23.00 8.3
41 Hassan Haskins RB TEN DAL 15.00 1.4
42 Damien Harris RB NE MIA 22.25 8.3
43 Royce Freeman RB HOU JAX 19.75 8.8
44 Michael Carter RB NYJ SEA 21.75 9.5
45 Marlon Mack RB DEN KC 15.75 5
46 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL ARI 22.50 10.3
47 Samaje Perine RB CIN BUF 24.00 8.3
48 Kareem Hunt RB CLE WAS 19.00 8.3
49 Joshua Kelley RB LAC LA 23.50 6
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has been getting nearly all the RB work, still. However, he has been held under 25 receiving yards in four straight games. Prior to Week 13, he reached 56 receiving yards in four of five games from Weeks 7-12. The receiving volume should return in Week 17, as the Dolphins allow just 69 rushing yards per game, at 3.8 yards per carry, to opposing backs. However, the Dolphins have allowed the sixth most receiving yards per game (44) to RBs this year, per The Edge. Rhamondre should get back on track with elite receiving usage given the matchup.
  • Brian Robinson has too high of a ranking, right? Well, he does face Cleveland, who allow 5.2 yards per carry to RBs. And, he has reached 18 carries in four of his past six games, with at least 12 carries in all of them. He had three of the four goal line carries last week, and could potentially see even more work overall with Antonio Gibson missing Wednesday's practice with an undisclosed lower body sprained.
  • Cam Akers gets almost all the carries for the Rams, and faces a Chargers team allowing the most yards per carry to RBs. He's run the most RB routes on the team each of the past two weeks, and his usage profile screams bell cow.
  • I'm concerned about Josh Jacobs in fantasy, and he'll likely continue to slide down the rankings as the week progresses. Jarrett Stidham was announced as the Raiders QB in place of Derek Carr, and Stidham owns a nauseating 5.6 career yards per attempt on 61 passes, somehow throwing four interceptions (6.6% rate) in that span. The Raiders will struggle to sustain drives against the 49ers elite defense, and RBs were already averaging the fewest fantasy points per game against San Francisco, per The Edge. Josh Jacobs may have carried you to the finals, but there's a chance you have two or three better options for Week 17.
  • I'm expecting Ezekiel Elliott and Malik Davis to split carries a decent amount in Thursday's game against the Titans. The Tennessee run defense is better than every team's aside from the 49ers, but volume is volume. And this Cowboys offense should have no issue putting up points against Tennessee. I'd expect 15 carries from each, along with 2-3 targets apiece.
  • Tyler Allgeier out-carried Cordarrelle Patterson 17-14 in Week 15, running for 139 yards and a TD. In Week 16, he out-carried Patterson again, 18-8, out-snapped him 41-24, and ran 20 routes to Patterson's 15. Allgeier caught four of his five targets last week, as well, for 43 yards. All three goal line carries went to Allgeier last week, and his raw volume is better than about half the starting RBs in the NFL. He faces the Cardinals, who allow 4.7 yards per carry, along with the fifth most receiving yards per game to RBs. This is a great matchup for an ascending rookie who has seen his role noticeably increase over the past month.
  • Zonovan Knight now has back-to-back games with just 2.3 fantasy points, though both those games came with Zach Wilson under center. Mike White returns at QB, and the matchup with Seattle is excellent. Knight has seen the vast majority of the team's carries, along with some work in the passing game. Only the Texans (30.0) allow more fantasy points per game to RBs than Seattle (29.2), as they are generous on the ground and through the air to the position.
  • Cam Akers put up one of the most surprising stat lines of the entire season, rushing 23 times for 118 yards and three TDs against Denver, while also running 18 of the 23 RB routes - catching both targets for 29 yards. Overall, he scored 34.7 PPR points, and carried any team to the finals who had the gall to start him last week. Akers now has at least 12 carries in four straight games, and no other RB has seen a single red zone carry since Week 10. The Chargers allow 5.5 yards per carry, most in the NFL, via The Edge. This is a great matchup for a player with a surprisingly good role.
  • The Colts with Nick Foles are arguably the NFL's worst offense. The TD upside is minimal for Zack Moss, but the role is excellent, and the matchup against the Giants provides hope, too. The Giants allow 5.3 yards per carry, second behind only the Chargers. Moss handled 12 of 13 RB carries last week, and ran 17 routes to Deon Jackson's eight and Jordan Wilkins' four. Moss is a borderline bell cow, facing a defense that cannot stop the run. He's a safe bet for double digit fantasy points even without reaching the end zone.
  • Derrick Henry is unlikely to play this week, as he's doubtful for Thursday night's game against Dallas. The Titans' playoff hopes rest entirely on their Week 18 performance against Jacksonville, so I expect Hassan Haskins to start in his place. Haskins is not a pass-catcher, he's simply a volume play for an offense that's consistently effective at running the ball. Haskins should see 15-20 carries regardless of game script, as the Titans do not trust Malik Willis to carry the offense with his arm.

Top 57 Wide Receivers

Rank Name Pos Team Opp Team Total xPPR
1 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET CHI 29.00 15.5
2 Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN BUF 24.00 18.3
3 Justin Jefferson WR MIN GB 22.50 20.2
4 Stefon Diggs WR BUF CIN 25.50 17.5
5 Tyreek Hill WR MIA NE 19.75 16.8
6 Keenan Allen WR LAC LA 23.50 14.4
7 A.J. Brown WR PHI NO 25.50 14.4
8 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL TEN 25.50 15.2
9 Tee Higgins WR CIN BUF 24.00 11.2
10 Jaylen Waddle WR MIA NE 19.75 12.1
11 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ SEA 21.75 13.5
12 DeVonta Smith WR PHI NO 25.50 12.2
13 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN KC 15.75 11.3
14 Chris Godwin WR TB CAR 21.00 14.2
15 Christian Kirk WR JAX HOU 23.75 14
16 D.J. Moore WR CAR TB 18.00 12.3
17 DK Metcalf WR SEA NYJ 19.75 14.5
18 Mike Williams WR LAC LA 23.50 12.3
19 Chris Olave WR NO PHI 18.50 13
20 Davante Adams WR LV SF 19.50 17.3
21 Terry McLaurin WR WAS CLE 21.50 12.5
22 Amari Cooper WR CLE WAS 19.00 14.3
23 Brandin Cooks WR HOU JAX 19.75 12
24 Christian Watson WR GB MIN 25.50 9.4
25 Drake London WR ATL ARI 22.50 11.1
26 Tyler Lockett WR SEA NYJ 19.75 12.5
27 DJ Chark WR DET CHI 29.00 8.8
28 Jahan Dotson WR WAS CLE 21.50 9.5
29 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR KC DEN 29.25 10.5
30 Mike Evans WR TB CAR 21.00 13.9
31 Brandon Aiyuk WR SF LV 25.50 10.9
32 Marquise Brown WR ARI ATL 18.50 14.6
33 Gabe Davis WR BUF CIN 25.50 10.8
34 Zay Jones WR JAX HOU 23.75 13.6
35 Donovan Peoples-Jones WR CLE WAS 19.00 10.4
36 Elijah Moore WR NYJ SEA 21.75 7.9
37 Allen Lazard WR GB MIN 25.50 11.6
38 Michael Pittman WR IND NYG 17.00 13.2
39 Courtland Sutton WR DEN KC 15.75 12.6
40 Darius Slayton WR NYG IND 22.50 8.1
41 Adam Thielen WR MIN GB 22.50 11.3
42 Russell Gage WR TB CAR 21.00 9
43 Diontae Johnson WR PIT BAL 16.50 14.3
44 Curtis Samuel WR WAS CLE 21.50 10.8
45 Romeo Doubs WR GB MIN 25.50 9.4
46 Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG IND 22.50 7.8
47 Josh Palmer WR LAC LA 23.50 11
48 Tyler Boyd WR CIN BUF 24.00 8.1
49 Jakobi Meyers WR NE MIA 22.25 10.5
50 Richie James WR NYG IND 22.50 7
51 Greg Dortch WR ARI ATL 18.50 5.7
52 Michael Gallup WR DAL TEN 25.50 9.4
53 George Pickens WR PIT BAL 16.50 9.2
54 K.J. Osborn WR MIN GB 22.50 8.4
55 Treylon Burks WR TEN DAL 15.00 7.4
56 Chase Claypool WR CHI DET 23.00 9.4
57 Mack Hollins WR LV SF 19.50 9.9
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown faces a Bears team allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt since Week 8, highest in the NFL. Amon-Ra has at least six catches and 68 yards in seven straight games, and has gone over 110 yards in three of them. He offers the best combination of ceiling and floor this week, as the Lions likely lean more on the pass game with Jamaal Williams likely out with a leg injury.
  • Keenan Allen keeps moving up the rankings, as he has at least 14 targets in three of his past four games. In six games since returning from injury, he's topped 85 yards in five of them, and has at least 14 PPR points in all six games. The Rams are a pass funnel defense, allowing the eighth most receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts, per The Edge.
  • I'm gravely concerned about Davante Adams with Jarrett Stidham at QB. Over 61 career pass attempts since he was drafted in 2019, Stidham has averaged a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt, while throwing an interception once every 15 passes. Add in the matchup with the 49ers, and there's a good chance Adams falls further in the rankings, possibly as low as the WR20 range.
  • Garrett Wilson is a WR1 again with Mike White back in the saddle. White should drop back 40 or more times against Seattle, and Wilson averages 10.5 targets (2.5 red zone, 1.5 end zone), 6.2 receptions, 91.5 yards, 115.8 air yards, and 19.3 PPR points per game in non-Zach Wilson starts this season.
  • DeVonta Smith is undeniable, and has come on strong in recent weeks, with at least eight targets in seven straight games, averaging 82 yards and 18 PPR points per game in that span. While the Saints aren't a great matchup, the Eagles offense simply has too many weapons and too solid of an offensive line for any defense to contain them.
  • DeAndre Hopkins spooked fantasy managers when he caught just one of ten targets for four yards against Tampa Bay last week. Luckily for him, Colt McCoy will be back for Week 17. With McCoy in Weeks 14 and 15, Hopkins had at least 11 targets, seven catches, and 60 yards. The matchup with Atlanta is a good one, as they are the 30th ranked pass defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.
  • Christian Watson didn't practice on Wednesday with a hip injury. Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs will be force-fed targets against a Vikings defense that's given up over 300 receiving yards in eight of their past ten games.
  • Carson Wentz is back as starter for Washington. Curtis Samuel averaged 8.3 targets, 5.7 receptions, 48 receiving yards, and 13.3 PPR points per game through the first six weeks with Wentz, and he gets a slight boost with Wentz returning. Terry McLaurin had better numbers with Taylor Heinicke, but I'm still assuming he's in the WR1 chair for this matchup with Cleveland. Jahan Dotson is most interesting to me, as the rookie has come alive the past three games, with at least six targets, four catches, 54 yards, a TD, and 16 fantasy points in each one. Cleveland has played better defense of late, but their motivation may wane in Week 17, as they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with last week's loss to New Orleans.
  • Desmond Ridder is a bad real life QB, who is great for Drake London's fantasy prospects. London has averaged ten targets, seven receptions, 83 yards, and 15.3 fantasy points per game with Ridder under center. Atlanta faces a Cardinals team that grades out slightly below average in their secondary.

Top 23 Tight Ends

Rank Name Pos Team Opp Team Total xPPR
1 Travis Kelce TE KC DEN 29.25 15.3
2 T.J. Hockenson TE MIN GB 22.50 12.8
3 George Kittle TE SF LV 25.50 9.5
4 Dalton Schultz TE DAL TEN 25.50 9.4
5 Evan Engram TE JAX HOU 23.75 9.4
6 Mark Andrews TE BAL PIT 19.50 12.5
7 Tyler Higbee TE LA LAC 17.00 9.2
8 David Njoku TE CLE WAS 19.00 10.3
9 Dallas Goedert TE PHI NO 25.50 8.6
10 Darren Waller TE LV SF 19.50 9.4
11 Cole Kmet TE CHI DET 23.00 6.9
12 Juwan Johnson TE NO PHI 18.50 7.8
13 Taysom Hill TE NO PHI 18.50 7.3
14 Pat Freiermuth TE PIT BAL 16.50 10.4
15 Gerald Everett TE LAC LA 23.50 9
16 Dawson Knox TE BUF CIN 25.50 7.8
17 Tyler Conklin TE NYJ SEA 21.75 7.9
18 Hayden Hurst TE CIN BUF 24.00 8
19 Noah Fant TE SEA NYJ 19.75 6.3
20 Cade Otton TE TB CAR 21.00 6.8
21 Trey McBride TE ARI ATL 18.50 2.9
22 Daniel Bellinger TE NYG IND 22.50 5
23 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN DAL 15.00 5
  • George Kittle now has back-to-back games with 25 or more fantasy points, but his eight targets in Week 16 were the first time since Week 7 that he had more than six targets in a game. This is a low volume passing offense, and his floor is still under five fantasy points each week. He's unlikely to make it three games in a row with multiple TD receptions, and the 49ers may not need to pass much against the Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders, who may struggle to put up more than three total points in this game.
  • Evan Engram has at least seven targets and 14 fantasy points in four straight games, and faces a Texans defense that has allowed six TEs to top 60 yards - one of those was Engram, who caught six passes for 69 yards in their first meeting. Engram has a solid floor in this surging Jaguars offense.
  • The past two games, Tyler Higbee has 25% and 39% target shares, with five red zone (two end zone) targets in this spane. After four catches for 27 yards and a TD in Week 15, Higbee caught nine passes for 94 yards and a score in their rout over Denver. The Chargers should force the Rams to pass in negative game script, and Higbee has emerged as Baker Mayfield's favorite option.
  • Juwan Johnson is my favorite streamer this week, taking on an Eagles defense that's been excellent covering WRs, but much closer to league average against TEs. Johnson has scored seven TDs over his past eight games, Chris Olave is banged up, and Jarvis Landry is on injured reserve. He should see volume against an Eagles team that the Saints will need to pass against to keep the game competitive.

Top 15 Defenses

Rank Name Pos Opp
Opp Team Total
1 49ers DST LV 19.5
2 Cowboys DST TEN 15
3 Ravens DST PIT 16.5
4 Giants DST IND 17
5 Chiefs DST DEN 15.75
6 Eagles DST NO 18.5
7 Jets DST SEA 19.75
8 Patriots DST MIA 19.75
9 Chargers DST LA 17
10 Steelers DST BAL 19.5
11 Jaguars DST HOU 19.75
12 Buccaneers DST CAR 18
13 Panthers DST TB 21
14 Browns DST WAS 21.5
15 Dolphins DST NE 22.25
  • The Giants are an excellent streaming option against a Nick Foles-led Colts team that truly looks like the NFL's worst overall offense.
  • The Patriots face Teddy Bridgewater in a must-win game.
  • The Steelers defense has played better since TJ Watt returned, and they now face Tyler Huntley, with Lamar Jackson still not ready to return.
  • The Browns pass defense has been very good in recent weeks, and Carson Wentz is always live for a multi-turnover affair.

These Week 17 fantasy rankings will be updated throughout the week. Make sure to check this post each day throughout the week as the news hits.

 

Tags: 2022 NFL Week 17, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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