Five Best Ball Draft Targets, from Jalen Hurts to Jahmyr Gibbs
Fantasy 3/2/23
Every week this draft season, we’re going to discuss our best ball outlooks on five different players. This week, we’re going to tackle four players that we are consistently targeting and a fifth that we are taking in specific situations. Josh Larky’s thoughts are in standard text, with Ryan Reynolds’ in italics.
1. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
We currently have Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts as our QB1 over Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Here’s why:
- Hurts was the MVP favorite until he injured his throwing shoulder late in the season.
- We saw in the Super Bowl Hurts has a massive single-game ceiling in both phases.
- The Eagles' schedule will be tougher this year, and they will likely lose some impact players on defense in free agency.
- Philadelphia could find themselves in more close games this season, which would increase their passing game volume.
- He had the most fantasy points per game last season.
- Hurts brings valuable rushing upside, and his supporting cast is much better than Mahomes’ or Allen’s.
2. Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
We remain higher than consensus on Jameson Williams. Here’s why:
- Williams had 79 receptions for 1572 yards receiving and 15 touchdowns as a junior at Alabama in 2021.
- He was the consensus WR1 in last year’s draft class prior to his ACL tear.
- He was the 12th overall pick last year despite tearing his ACL in the National Championship Game.
- Jameson’s usage profile is 20-25% target share with a high aDOT (average depth of target), which is fantasy gold.
- Williams is dangerous after the catch and will be fantasy relevant on four-to-five targets per game, but he’s likely getting seven-to-10 targets per game.
- It wouldn’t be surprising if he and Amon-Ra St. Brown are both top-10 fantasy wideouts.
- Williams would be the top WR in this year’s draft class by a mile.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) hasn’t been drafted yet, but his ADP is 57 versus William’s 60.6 ADP.
- All things considered, I’m taking Williams over Smith-Njigba at least until the draft is in the books.
3. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara has been a high-end fantasy asset since he entered the league in 2017. This season, Kamara has a legal matter with a current court date of July 31st. Here’s how we’re handling Kamara given this uncertainty:
- If Kamara ends up with a six-game suspension, his best ball situation largely parallels DeAndre Hopkins’ from last year.
- Kamara is the latest player you can realistically draft with top-8 fantasy RB upside whenever he plays.
- Kamara’s production will be back-loaded assuming he’s suspended to start the season, so he’s producing during the weeks that matter most for these best ball tournaments.
- If we're happy with our teams after seven rounds, we are both targeting Kamara in those situations.
4. T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
The Detroit Lions took T.J. Hockenson with the eighth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He never quite met expectations, leaving a bad taste in fantasy gamers’ mouths. Then, he was traded to the Minnesota Vikings during the season. Here’s how we view Hockenson heading into this season:
- Hockenson averaged 9.4 targets a game with the Vikings. Minnesota rested starters, and Hockenson barely played in Week 18, so we removed that contest from this sample.
- For context, Travis Kelce had 8.9 targets per game for the Kansas City Chiefs last year.
- For my betting previews, I researched usage trends for every starting skill position player. Hockenson’s usage with the Vikings is among the more memorable roles of the season.
- Ultimately, Mark Andrews versus Hockenson is a real debate in early best ball.
5. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, 2023 NFL Draft
Gibbs (scouting report) is shaping up as our flagship flag plant in early best ball drafts. Here’s why we expect to remain higher than consensus on Gibbs heading into the draft:
- He's an elite pass-catching back and an elite-pure runner on a per-touch basis.
- Because he only weighs around 200 pounds, expect a Kamara-type workload, with eight-to-12 carries and four-to-seven targets per game.
- Gibbs was the second-leading receiver at Georgia Tech as a true freshman (303 yards receiving).
- He had 465 yards receiving as a sophomore when the team leader only had 489 yards receiving.
- Gibbs transferred to Alabama as a junior and led the team with 926 yards rushing while finishing third on the team with 444 yards receiving. Gibbs led the team in receptions with 44.
- He is expected to be a late first-rounder. Elite offenses like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Kansas City could all potentially select a running back with Gibbs’ skill set at that stage of the draft.
- Gibbs' player archetype, potential landing spots and 57.1 ADP make him a player we’re both targeting in every early drafts.