Fantasy

Expected Fantasy Points: 2022 Season-Long Recap

Expected Fantasy Points: Season-Long Recap

My expected fantasy points model (based on player usage) has been included in my weekly fantasy rankings, but it deserves more thorough analysis with the fantasy season concluding.

I walk through each of the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions, highlighting a few players of interest below each table. The order within each table is how far above expectation a player’s fantasy points were. Players at the top over-performed my usage model, while players at the bottom under-performed.

For most players, simply looking at their expected touchdowns versus actual touchdowns will tell the story behind their place in each table. However, a few players deserve more context than simply “Touchdowns” and will be the players garnering a write-up beneath the positional tables.

For each table, you can highlight the text and conveniently copy and paste it into an Excel workbook if you’d like to perform your own analysis with it.

At the bottom of this article, an Appendix is included where you can see exactly which data points feed into each of my statistical models. For anyone wanting to conduct this type of research on their own, this section should be particularly helpful.

All stats are through Week 17, aside from Bills and Bengals players, where their stats through Week 16 were included.

QB Terminology

G – Games

PPR – Point Per Reception fantasy points per game, with four points for passing TDs

xPPR – Expected PPR fantasy points per game

PTD|xPTD – Passing TDs and expected passing TDs

RTD|xRTD – Rushing TDs and expected rushing TDs

29 QBs played at least ten games this season, and are included in the table.

QB Expected Fantasy Points Table

More so than any other table, a player’s spot on this table is indicative of skill. The over-performing QBs are generally regarded as the NFL’s best this season, while the QBs at the bottom generally had a disappointing 2022 season.

QB G PPR xPPR PTD|xPTD RTD|xRTD
Patrick Mahomes 16 25.2 20.8 40 | 29.4 4 | 3.3
Joe Burrow 15 22.6 19.8 34 | 23.4 5 | 4.4
Jalen Hurts 14 26.4 23.6 22 | 18.3 13 | 12.3
Tua Tagovailoa 13 17.8 15.3 25 | 18.8 0 | 0.4
Josh Allen 15 24.9 23.1 32 | 26.4 7 | 6.7
Jared Goff 16 17.2 15.6 29 | 25.1 0 | 0.2
Jimmy Garoppolo 11 15 13.5 16 | 14.6 2 | 1.2
Justin Fields 15 19.7 18.7 17 | 16.2 8 | 7.1
Daniel Jones 16 18.1 17.2 15 | 15.4 7 | 5.9
Dak Prescott 11 17.3 16.5 22 | 18.2 1 | 0.5
Geno Smith 16 18.1 17.4 29 | 27.8 1 | 0.8
Kyler Murray 11 18.2 17.6 14 | 14 3 | 3.6
Lamar Jackson 12 19.7 19.4 17 | 17.1 3 | 4.1
Trevor Lawrence 16 17.8 17.7 24 | 24 5 | 3.6
Derek Carr 15 14.6 14.5 24 | 23.9 0 | 0.3
Kirk Cousins 16 17.4 17.3 28 | 27.7 2 | 1.6
Aaron Rodgers 16 14.2 14.3 25 | 24.3 1 | 1.4
Marcus Mariota 13 15.1 15.6 15 | 15 4 | 3.8
Mac Jones 13 11.8 12.4 11 | 14.7 1 | 0.9
Andy Dalton 13 12.6 13.3 17 | 16.7 0 | 1.6
Ryan Tannehill 12 13.4 14.2 13 | 17.2 2 | 1.9
Tom Brady 16 16.5 17.3 24 | 25.3 1 | 1.8
Justin Herbert 16 16.4 17.2 23 | 26.6 0 | 1.5
Jacoby Brissett 12 14 15 12 | 16.7 2 | 2
Russell Wilson 14 14.5 15.7 13 | 19.1 3 | 1.5
Baker Mayfield 11 10.5 12 10 | 12.5 1 | 0.4
Matt Ryan 12 12.9 14.6 14 | 16.5 1 | 1.4
Davis Mills 14 11.4 13.3 14 | 18.8 2 | 0.9
Kenny Pickett 12 11.3 13.5 6 | 14.2 3 | 3.2

  • Justin Herbert is the QB to focus on here, as he looks like a fish out of water near the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield, and Andy Dalton. Star left tackle Rashawn Slater missed nearly the entire season, and Herbert only played a few games this season with all of Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams healthy. Herbert will likely get under-drafted in 2023 fantasy drafts this summer.
  • Justin Fields’ ten runs of 20 or more yards were second to only Nick Chubb, and his seven runs of 30 or more yards were two more than any other player (RB included) this season. He’s the type of player who should always perform above expectations given his skill set, and the supporting cast should improve dramatically for 2023. We could very well be looking at the 2022 Jalen Hurts fantasy season from Fields in 2023.

RB Terminology

G – Games

PPR – Point Per Reception fantasy points per game

xPPR – Expected PPR fantasy points per game

RuTD|xRuTD – Rushing TDs and expected rushing TDs

ReTD|xReTD – Receiving TDs and expected receiving TDs

43 RBs had at least 100 PPR points this season, and are included in the table.

RB Expected Fantasy Points Table

You’ll notice that very few RBs greatly exceeded or fell far below their expected production. This may be another feather in the cap for those that say RB is one of the more replaceable positions in the NFL.

RB G PPR xPPR RuTD|xRuTD ReTD|xReTD
Tony Pollard 15 16.5 13.1 9 | 4.5 3 | 1.4
Austin Ekeler 16 22.7 19.7 13 | 6.5 5 | 4.3
Derrick Henry 15 19.3 16.9 13 | 8.8 0 | 1.1
Christian McCaffrey 16 21.2 19 8 | 7.4 4 | 3.1
Josh Jacobs 16 20.1 18 12 | 8.2 0 | 1.3
Nick Chubb 16 16.1 14.2 12 | 8.1 0 | 0.1
Breece Hall 7 16.4 14.5 4 | 3.1 1 | 1.3
Khalil Herbert 12 9.3 7.5 4 | 4.2 1 | 0.3
Jerick McKinnon 16 11.7 10 1 | 2.8 8 | 2.3
D’Andre Swift 13 13.5 12 5 | 2.8 3 | 2.3
Miles Sanders 16 13.3 12.1 11 | 7.9 0 | 0
Aaron Jones 16 15.1 13.9 2 | 3.5 5 | 2.6
Cordarrelle Patterson 12 12.1 11.1 7 | 4.9 0 | 1.1
James Conner 13 15.4 14.4 7 | 5.2 1 | 1.4
Kenneth Walker III 14 13.5 12.5 9 | 5.9 0 | 0.4
Samaje Perine 15 9.3 8.4 2 | 1.8 4 | 1.3
Ezekiel Elliott 14 13.2 12.4 12 | 8.4 0 | 0.2
Tyler Allgeier 15 9.7 9 3 | 5.4 1 | 0.1
Raheem Mostert 15 10.7 10.2 3 | 3.8 2 | 1.2
Jeff Wilson 15 9.9 9.4 5 | 4.9 1 | 0.8
Latavius Murray 12 11.3 11.1 5 | 3.5 0 | 0.4
Jamaal Williams 16 12.9 12.7 15 | 13 0 | 0.2
Dalvin Cook 16 14.7 14.7 8 | 8.3 2 | 2
AJ Dillon 16 10.3 10.3 7 | 4.8 0 | 0.8
Cam Akers 14 9 9.1 7 | 4.9 0 | 0.5
Isiah Pacheco 16 7.7 7.8 4 | 5 0 | 0.1
D’Onta Foreman 16 7.8 7.9 5 | 6.4 0 | 0.2
Devin Singletary 15 11.7 11.8 5 | 5.7 1 | 1.2
Rhamondre Stevenson 16 14.7 14.8 5 | 6.6 1 | 1.7
Kareem Hunt 16 7.6 7.9 3 | 3.7 1 | 1.6
Saquon Barkley 16 17.8 18.1 10 | 8.7 0 | 1.7
David Montgomery 15 11.7 12 5 | 4.3 1 | 1.1
Rachaad White 16 8.6 8.9 1 | 2.3 2 | 1.7
Leonard Fournette 15 15 15.4 3 | 6.1 3 | 2.5
Joe Mixon 13 17.1 17.7 6 | 8 2 | 3.2
Travis Etienne 16 12.5 13.1 5 | 7.8 0 | 0.9
Michael Carter 15 8.2 8.9 3 | 2.6 0 | 1.6
Antonio Gibson 15 11.1 11.9 3 | 5.1 2 | 1.9
Dameon Pierce 13 12.8 13.7 4 | 5.4 1 | 0.7
Najee Harris 16 13.1 14 6 | 6.8 3 | 2
Alvin Kamara 14 14.3 15.7 2 | 4.3 2 | 2.5
Jonathan Taylor 11 13.3 15.4 4 | 6.2 0 | 1
Brian Robinson 12 9.4 11.8 2 | 5.4 1 | 0.2

 

  • Travis Etienne is not an intuitive name to see toward the bottom of an expected fantasy points table. He’s on a Jaguars team scoring more points per game than an offensive powerhouse like the Chargers, and the same amount of points as the explosive Miami Dolphins. Etienne is one of the NFL’s best accelerators and fastest runners. For him to only have five total TDs on the season makes no sense. He has 40 red zone carries (13 within five yards of the goal line) and is tied for the NFL lead among RBs with five carries of 30 or more yards. His fantasy points per game will likely be used against him next draft season. Etienne is someone I’ll most likely be overweight on in 2023 drafts – a speedy RB with size who catches some passes and can break long runs on a Jaguars offense that should be borderline elite in 2023.
  • Austin Ekeler, unfortunately, looks like a player I will have very few shares of in 2023 fantasy drafts. Aside from doubling his expected rushing TD output, the Chargers’ WR room was banged up all season, resulting in a pass game usage spike. Allen wasn’t healthy until Week 11, the first time this season he played at least 40% of the team’s snaps. Before Week 11, Ekeler averaged nine targets per game. From Week 11 onward, Ekeler averaged just six targets per game.
  • Jonathan Taylor has a case for the best size-speed combination among all NFL RBs, so seeing him towards the bottom, like Etienne, is slightly surprising. Taylor clearly scored fewer TDs than expected based on his usage, with part of that being the Colts’ mediocre offensive line, and another part being their struggles at QB. However, there’s a decent chance both issues remain in 2023, and Taylor is not the pass-catcher than Saquon Barkley is, which makes it more difficult for him to rise above his offensive situation in fantasy football.
  • Tyler Allgeier over-performed his usage expectations, yet had very few TDs on the season. Before declaring that Allgeier is a great bet for 2023 since he over-performed expectations without TDs, I’m going to mention a scary name: A.J. Dillon. In 2021, Dillon caught 34 of 37 targets for 9.2 yards per reception. This year, Allgeier caught 16 of 17 targets for 8.7 yards per reception. RB efficiency in the passing game is generally random, and while the TDs may be more plentiful next season, I’d expect a massive decline in his pass game efficiency in 2023.

WR Terminology

G – Games

PPR – Point Per Reception fantasy points per game

xPPR – Expected PPR fantasy points per game

Tgt – Targets

RecYds – Receiving Yards

TD|xTD – Total TDs and expected total TDs

70 WRs had at least 100 PPR points this season, and are included in the table.

WR Expected Fantasy Points Table

You’ll notice from the start that the magnitude of over/underperformance is much larger here than at the RB position. It’s not much of a surprise that Tyreek Hill appears at the top. His unique ability to create yards after the catch is always on display. Based on the way the Dolphins set up their offense, it makes sense that Jaylen Waddle appears at the third spot. At the bottom of this table, we have Diontae Johnson, who has six expected TDs based on usage, but no actual TDs on 137 targets this season.

WR G PPR xPPR Tgt RecYds TD|xTD
Tyreek Hill 16 21.4 15.6 165 1687 8 | 5.8
Cooper Kupp 9 22.4 17.4 98 812 7 | 3.7
Jaylen Waddle 16 15.6 11.5 112 1312 8 | 4.6
A.J. Brown 16 17.9 14.2 135 1401 11 | 6.3
Tee Higgins 16 13.8 10.3 103 1035 7 | 4.2
Justin Jefferson 16 22.6 19.2 179 1771 9 | 9.6
Tyler Lockett 15 14.8 11.4 110 979 8 | 4.2
Stefon Diggs 16 18.6 15.3 146 1351 10 | 8.6
DeVonta Smith 16 15.1 11.8 128 1129 7 | 4.7
Davante Adams 16 20.2 17.2 171 1443 14 | 8.4
CeeDee Lamb 16 17.8 15.2 149 1307 8 | 5.1
Jakobi Meyers 13 12.9 10.3 89 771 5 | 2.8
Brandon Aiyuk 16 13.6 11.2 109 956 8 | 4.6
Tyler Boyd 16 10.3 8 76 725 6 | 3.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster 15 12 9.7 99 898 3 | 3.4
Isaiah Hodgins 10 10 7.8 48 392 4 | 2
Ja’Marr Chase 12 18.3 16.2 121 960 8 | 6.3
Jerry Jeudy 14 12.8 10.8 94 818 6 | 5.2
Christian Watson 13 11.3 9.4 60 507 9 | 4.3
Keenan Allen 9 14.9 13.2 78 650 2 | 3.2
Mike Williams 12 14.1 12.5 88 863 4 | 4.4
Chris Godwin 14 15.2 13.6 135 968 3 | 3.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown 15 17.1 15.6 137 1112 6 | 5.2
Richie James 15 8.8 7.4 70 569 4 | 2.1
Amari Cooper 16 14.9 13.7 129 1109 9 | 7
Jahan Dotson 11 10.9 9.7 57 451 7 | 3.7
Michael Pittman 15 13.6 12.4 136 895 3 | 4.3
Terry McLaurin 16 13.3 12.2 114 1117 4 | 4.8
Devin Duvernay 14 8.3 7.2 49 407 4 | 3.7
Darius Slayton 15 8.6 7.5 71 724 2 | 2.3
DeAndre Hopkins 9 16.9 15.8 96 717 3 | 2.7
Chris Olave 14 13.1 12.2 107 982 3 | 4.3
Mike Evans 15 15 14.2 127 1124 6 | 7
Curtis Samuel 16 11 10.2 91 658 5 | 3.9
Christian Kirk 16 13.8 13 125 1009 7 | 7
Parris Campbell 16 8.5 7.7 82 581 3 | 2.6
Russell Gage 12 9.4 8.7 64 411 4 | 3.9
Gabe Davis 15 11 10.3 83 797 7 | 4.7
Greg Dortch 15 7 6.4 60 437 2 | 1.8
DeAndre Carter 16 6.7 6.3 60 495 3 | 2.9
Marquise Brown 11 14 13.6 103 702 3 | 4
George Pickens 16 9.4 9 78 729 4 | 4.3
K.J. Osborn 16 8.7 8.4 84 533 5 | 4
Josh Palmer 15 10.6 10.3 101 730 3 | 3.6
Donovan Peoples-Jones 16 10.1 9.9 92 797 3 | 4.8
Zay Jones 15 12.8 12.7 115 802 5 | 7.1
Chris Moore 15 7.4 7.4 68 526 2 | 3.1
Isaiah McKenzie 15 7.7 7.7 63 404 5 | 2.5
Kalif Raymond 16 6.6 6.7 58 550 0 | 2.2
Deebo Samuel 12 13.7 13.8 91 612 5 | 5.2
Allen Lazard 14 11.5 11.7 94 747 5 | 5.3
Mack Hollins 16 9.4 9.7 91 675 4 | 4.3
Noah Brown 15 7.5 7.8 68 545 3 | 3.7
Josh Reynolds 13 7.8 8.1 57 463 3 | 4.7
Adam Thielen 16 10.7 11 104 708 5 | 5.7
DK Metcalf 16 13.7 14 133 1008 6 | 8.8
Romeo Doubs 12 8.5 9 65 425 3 | 2.5
Darnell Mooney 12 8.5 9.2 61 493 2 | 3.4
Drake London 16 10 10.7 109 746 4 | 4.6
Alec Pierce 15 7 7.7 74 551 2 | 2.6
D.J. Moore 16 12.3 13.1 114 878 7 | 5.9
Garrett Wilson 16 12.4 13.3 130 1014 4 | 6.2
Marvin Jones 15 7.5 8.7 75 500 3 | 4
Courtland Sutton 14 10.5 11.7 102 796 1 | 5
Michael Gallup 13 8 9.2 68 414 4 | 4.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 16 7.3 8.5 75 660 2 | 4.1
Chase Claypool 14 7.2 8.6 73 422 1 | 3
Brandin Cooks 12 10.3 12 87 593 2 | 3.5
Robert Woods 16 6.7 8.5 86 487 2 | 3.5
Diontae Johnson 16 10.8 13.7 137 844 0 | 6
  • I have never been a Jerry Jeudy guy, until this season. Playing on an awful offense, he managed to be efficient with his yardage and TDs. Jeudy had nearly a full yard more per target than Courtland Sutton this season. In seven of eleven fully healthy games this season, Jeudy was targeted at least once in the red zone, and he had three games with multiple end zone targets. His per-game numbers don’t do him justice, either. Jeudy ran ten or fewer routes in three games due to injury, with at least 30 routes run in the 11 other games. This Broncos offense will most likely improve in 2023, as the offensive line was worse than advertised, and Denver’s WRs missed an insane amount of games due to injury.
  • D.J. Moore scored seven TDs this year, three more than his previous career high. He even outperformed my model’s TD expectation. Yet, my model thought he would average more fantasy points than he did. The answer is simple: Bad QB play. D.J. Moore’s future in Carolina is uncertain, but he’s the type of player who can put up 18 fantasy points per game with a different QB. He’s fast, durable, dangerous after the catch, a solid route runner, and doesn’t turn 26 years old until the end of April. I will be drafting D.J. Moore in the second or third round of fantasy if needed, should he change teams and get a massive QB upgrade in the offseason. His 27.4% target share this season is higher than Stefon Diggs, and his 46.2% team air yards share is the highest in the NFL among players with at least 100 routes run in 2022. Moore is an elite WR, plain and simple. Target share and air yards share stats are courtesy of our flagship tool, The Edge.
  • Justin Jefferson is the only player in the top-14 to have underperformed in the TD department. Given what we know about Jefferson’s skill as a WR, we should always expect his efficiency to be above league average. The 2021 Cooper Kupp season is once again in play for Jefferson in 2023, should he experience a TD spike, since the target share and air yards are both already there.

TE Terminology

G – Games

PPR – Point Per Reception fantasy points per game

xPPR – Expected PPR fantasy points per game

Tgt – Targets

RecYds – Receiving Yards

TD|xTD – Total TDs and expected total TDs

29 TEs had at least 80 PPR points this season, and are included in the table, which is sorted in order of players who over-performed their expected fantasy points based on usage.

TE Expected Fantasy Points Table

The TE position is much more heavily reliant on TDs than WR, since TEs generally run their routes closer to the line of scrimmage, and usually offer less after the catch, given their speed limitations.

TE G PPR xPPR Tgt RecYds TD|xTD
Travis Kelce 16 19.2 15.3 145 1300 12 | 8.8
George Kittle 14 13 10 80 736 9 | 5.5
Dallas Goedert 11 11.9 9 62 656 3 | 2
Taysom Hill 15 9.5 7.4 12 75 9 | 5.6
Will Dissly 15 5.8 4.4 38 349 3 | 1.3
Cole Kmet 16 8.2 6.9 64 487 6 | 3.1
Dawson Knox 15 8.4 7.2 63 504 5 | 3.4
Juwan Johnson 15 8.8 7.8 64 487 7 | 4.6
Noah Fant 16 7.3 6.3 59 466 4 | 3.7
Jordan Akins 14 6.5 5.6 46 425 3 | 2.3
Evan Engram 16 10.6 9.8 94 739 4 | 4.3
Hunter Henry 16 5.9 5.6 52 467 2 | 2.3
Chigoziem Okonkwo 16 5.2 5 42 408 2 | 1.7
Robert Tonyan 16 6.6 6.5 64 441 2 | 2.8
Hayden Hurst 13 8 7.9 65 425 2 | 2
Zach Ertz 10 11.6 11.7 69 406 4 | 3.6
Tyler Conklin 16 8 8.1 83 539 3 | 3.2
T.J. Hockenson 16 13.3 13.4 128 898 6 | 7.1
Tyler Higbee 16 9 9.2 101 587 3 | 5
Mike Gesicki 16 5.6 5.8 46 316 5 | 4.9
Austin Hooper 16 5.6 5.9 56 406 2 | 2.8
Mark Andrews 15 12.7 13 113 847 5 | 5.9
David Njoku 13 9.8 10.2 75 586 3 | 4.7
Gerald Everett 15 8.6 9 82 547 3 | 4.4
Dalton Schultz 14 9.7 10.1 80 544 5 | 5.5
Pat Freiermuth 15 9.9 10.3 96 732 2 | 4
Foster Moreau 14 5.9 6.4 53 410 2 | 2.9
Greg Dulcich 10 8.6 9.2 55 411 2 | 2
Cade Otton 15 6.1 7.1 64 386 2 | 3.7
  • I wouldn’t worry too much about Travis Kelce. He should generally outperform my model’s expectations, given that he plays with Patrick Mahomes.
  • Only Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller had a higher average target depth (min. 100 routes) than Greg Dulcich, per The Edge. So while his TDs were as expected, his yardage was far below expectation given that his targets were over 11 yards down the field on average – compare this to Tyler Higbee, whose average target depth was just 3.2 yards. The rookie should take a step forward in year two, and boasts top-5 TE upside for the coming season, regardless of the Broncos’ offensive situation.
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo will be an interesting name to monitor next season in fantasy drafts, as his fantasy performance this year was largely within expectation. However, he ran a 4.52 40 time at the NFL Combine in 2022, the fastest at the position. We should expect a player with his speed to have more yards and TDs than expected, since he runs like a WR.

Appendix

Regular season game logs from 2015-2022 were utilized in every model. Below is a list of the variables included in each model.

  • QB Expected Fantasy Points – Pass Attempts, Air Yards, Red Zone Targets, End Zone Targets, Rush Attempts, Red Zone Rush Attempts (within 20 yards of scoring), Goal Line Rush Attempts (within five yards of scoring)
  • QB Expected Passing TDs – Pass Attempts, Air Yards, Red Zone Targets, End Zone Targets
  • RB Expected Fantasy Points – Rush Attempts, Red Zone Rush Attempts, Goal Line Rush Attempts, Targets, Red Zone Targets, End Zone Targets
  • QB/RB/WR/TE Expected Rushing TDs – Rush Attempts, Red Zone Rush Attempts, Goal Line Rush Attempts
  • RB Expected Receiving TDs – Targets, Red Zone Targets, End Zone Targets
  • WR/TE Expected Fantasy Points – Targets, Air Yards, Red Zone Targets, End Zone Targets, Rush Attempts, Red Zone Rush Attempts, Goal Line Rush Attempts
  • WR/TE Expected Receiving TDs – Targets, Air Yards, Red Zone Targets, End Zone Targets

If you’re wondering how to make improvements to these models, you can utilize play-by-play data. Analyzing on a per-play basis is generally more accurate, though it can lead to overfitting if not careful. For example, my analysis currently assumes a carry 18 yards from the end zone is the same as a carry six yards from the end zone. I kept this article’s analysis contained to game-level stats to ensure overfitting would not be a major concern.

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