Fantasy
12/2/22
8 min read
Dynasty Stock Report: NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Buys, Sells, Holds
Welcome to the dynasty stock report article, where we evaluate polarizing players to see whether their stock rises or falls. In fantasy football, we’re dealing with small samples, where a situation can change into the following year. Each league is different, and each manager values their players differently.Â
The goal of these dynasty stock articles is to use the recent or season-long data as a guide on how to value players. Should we buy, sell or hold these players? How do these players compare historically? Let’s dive into three players seeing their dynasty stock rise or fall in 2022.
Dynasty Stock Up
George Pickens, WR, PIT
Age: 21.7
In the offseason, I envisioned a scenario where Mitchell Trubisky potentially looked like an upgrade to Ben Roethlisberger. In 2017 and 2018, Roethlisberger ranked inside the top 12 in adjusted yards per attempt. Then he suffered an elbow injury in 2019, and his AY/A plummeted to 6.5 (No. 23) in 2020 and 5.8 (No. 27) in 2021.Â
We had that unknown factor with Trubisky in a new offense or rookie Kenny Pickett stepping in to play quarterback. Sometimes it feels better to go with the most likely outcome, but we can't rule out other scenarios. The Steelers traded away Chase Claypool to the Bears at the trade deadline, which meant George Pickens' dynasty stock went up.Â
Pickens' Prospect Profile & Rookie Season
In college, Pickens suffered a torn ACL in March 2021, and his final college season metrics look mediocre. He broke out as a true freshman with 727 receiving yards, a 26% receiver market share, and a 30% receiver dominator. Outside of injury, part of his underwhelming college production involved the Georgia team context of relying on their running backs and above-average team defense.Â
Pickens posted solid workout metrics with a 54th-percentile Speed Score and 67th-percentile Freak Score. When looking at the college film, he separated and created yards after the catch, similar to Jerry Jeudy. We've already witnessed the highlight reel catches from Pickens, with a quality connection between he and Kenny Pickett.
In Weeks 1-8 with Claypool on the team, Pickens ranked third on the Steelers with a 15% target share and second with a 25% air yards share. He garnered downfield opportunities with 13.5 air yards per target. With Claypool gone, Pickens' target share increased to 18%, with the air yards share jumping to 30%. Unfortunately, the overall target volume remains low, with 5.3 over the past three weeks. It's similar to the Michael Gallup role, with an 18-20% target share plus a higher AY/T at 11-12.Â
How To Play It?
The top rookie comparisons considering receiving EP/G, age, and draft capital include Wan'Dale Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Rondale Moore. While Hopkins might be a ceiling outcome, Moore is a solid comparison as a WR3 with WR2 potential. Although the Steelers rank 26th in offensive EPA/G, they average the eighth-most plays per game, the 13th-highest pass rate, and the 13th-fastest seconds per snap.Â
Given the high air yards role, Pickens might remain inefficient with an 0.61 receiver-air-yard conversion rate that ranks 88th and 0.6 FPOE/G (No. 67). Pickens' dynasty stock has risen closer to the likes of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. However, Wilson and Olave have shown more consistency as the primary option in their respective offenses. Treat Pickens like an ascending receiver, but the dynasty market may not value him similarly.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, CLE
Age: 23.7
In Year 2 for Donovan Peoples-Jones, he averaged the highest AY/T at 15.6, with Courtland Sutton (15.4) behind him. He possessed elite athleticism with an 80th-percentile Speed Score and 100th-percentile Explosion Score. That burst and ability to run by defenders align with the downfield role. It only took Jacoby Brissett to unlock Peoples-Jones.Â
All kidding aside, his AY/T fell to 11.6, leading to converting the air yards into more receiving production. In 2021, Peoples-Jones had a catch rate of 58.6% and a 0.67 RACR (No. 74). That improved this year with a 64.6% catch rate and a 0.78 RACR (No. 51). His redraft and dynasty stock improved with the air yards, turning into a consistent WR3. Behind Amari Cooper, Peoples-Jones ran the second-most routes, with Cooper at 87.9% and Peoples-Jones at 86.3%. Peoples-Jones ranks 25th in weighted targets per route run, with Cooper at seventh, which accounts for the target depth and air yards.Â
Historical Comparisons & QB Questions
Through Donovan Peoples-Jones' first three years in the league, he compared closely to Marvin Jones, Kenny Stills, and Gabe Davis in receiving EP/G. It would be ideal for his career path to align closely with Jones, who posted WR3-type production with a high air yards role. In Jones' boom seasons, the touchdowns spiked.Â
Unfortunately, Peoples-Jones hasn't found the end zone much, though the target volume hadn't increased until 2022. Per TruMedia, Peoples-Jones has the 64th-ranked receiving touchdown rate (12.1%) amongst receivers with 50 or more targets (2021-2022). Meanwhile, Cooper ranks 11th with a 28.8% receiving touchdown rate over the past two seasons. Throughout the past two years, the league average receiving TD% is 14.6%.Â
Surprisingly, Brissett played well through the first 12 weeks with 7.1 yards per attempt (No. 16) with an 85.2% catchable target rate (No. 18). Among quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts, Brissett tied with Justin Herbert in adjusted yards per attempt (No. 16) at 6.1. The Browns have Brissett under contract through 2022, with Deshaun Watson returning in Week 13. Expect Brissett to get paid in the offseason with his success in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Browns owe Watson $46 million for the following four seasons. While Watson is a theoretical upgrade to Brissett for all Browns' pass-catchers, we'll see if he can return to his elite QB status finishing top five in three straight seasons. It's somewhat of a positive note that Peoples-Jones and Cooper thrived with Brissett. We could witness untapped potential, more so for Peoples-Jones.
How To Play It?
Before 2022, Peoples-Jones likely ranked as an upside stash receiver in dynasty formats. He probably landed in a grouping of players like Corey Davis, Russell Gage, David Bell, and Mecole Hardman. Most would've wanted Peoples-Jones throughout 2022 before Hardman's touchdown-heavy stretch. A fair question regarding their dynasty stock could include Elijah Moore, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Gallup, and Skyy Moore.Â
If you didn't believe in Peoples-Jones, it might be time to sell in the offseason if Bell's role increases. He's with the Browns through 2023 on an affordable rookie contract as a former sixth-round pick. We love when receivers garner the air yards, and then it adjusts to make the receptions more convertible. Looking ahead to the next 2-3 years, Peoples-Jones could turn into Marvin Jones or find his way into a similar role with another team. Either way, keep valuing Peoples-Jones as an upside WR3/flex option.
Dynasty Stock Down
Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL
Age: 22.1
After many, including myself, expected touchdown regression for Kyle Pitts, the usage frustrated fantasy managers. Unfortunately, Pitts suffered an MCL injury that led to season-ending surgery. Maybe we should have weighed the quarterback change more heavily, going from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota. In 2021, the Falcons ranked seventh in pass rate (62%) and 25th in rush rate (38%). Then we know they established the run in 2022, with the second-highest Rush% (55%) and second-lowest Pass% (45%).Â
As a rookie, Pitts averaged 10.85 AY/T (No. 42 amongst all WR/TE), which jumped to 13.83 (No. 4) in 2022. Unsurprisingly, the catch rate fell from 61.8% to 47.5% with the increase in downfield opportunities. In Weeks 1-7, the passing volume ranked second-to-last at 21.4 attempts per game. While the passing volume remained low from Weeks 8-12, it seemed to be trending positively, with 25.2 (No. 30) attempts per game.Â
Historical Comparisons For Pitts
One of the most polarizing conversations will surround how to value Pitts for his redraft and dynasty stock. Using receiving EP/G, age, and draft capital, the top comparisons in their first two seasons include T.J. Hockenson, Eric Ebron, and David Njoku. While some might think Hockenson has underperformed, he's still a solid TE1 option, given the volume. Ebron flashed for a few seasons, with the most notable one ending with 13 touchdowns in Year 5. Njoku battled injuries, but none reached the 1,000 receiving mark in Year 1.Â
According to TruMedia, Pitts is the only tight end to reach the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie since 2010. While 1,000 receiving yards feels like an arbitrary number, it's rare to record even 500 yards in Year 1. The next-closest receiving mark since 2010 is Evan Engram, with 722 in 2017. Only 11 other tight ends posted 1,000 receiving yards since 2010. That includes several elite options, with Travis Kelce (six), Rob Gronkowski (four), and Greg Olson (three) as the only ones with three or more seasons.
How To Play It?
With Pitts' dynasty stock seemingly growing before Year 2, then plummeting into Year 3, it's logical to buy the dip. I believe he's an elite talent, though he may play with Mariota in 2023. The Falcons drafted Desmond Ridder in the third round, so there's a chance he performs well and helps buoy Pitts' value. Or they could bring in another quarterback.Â
Regardless, Pitts showed the ability to earn targets and garnered high-value opportunities down the field and in the red zone. He ranked second in 2022 amongst all WR/TE in weighted targets per route run (wTPRR) behind Tyreek Hill, which accounts for the target depth. Buy low on Pitts, if possible, in dynasty formats. Some potential candidates to trade away include Tony Pollard, Gabe Davis, Deebo Samuel, or another TE1 option plus a piece.Â
