Fantasy

11/7/22

14 min read

33 Fantasy Takeaways from Week 9

By Josh Larky

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Below you'll find 33 fantasy takeaways from Week 9 (but really, who's counting). Advanced usage data is examined each week, as usage is a much better indicator of future fantasy points than current fantasy points.

Essentially, NFL teams never look at fantasy points, so we shouldn't focus too much attention on them either if we want to predict what teams will do moving forward.

Eagles at Texans (29 - 17)

• AJ Brown has demonstrated an incredibly high floor in 2022, with at least 12 fantasy points in seven of eight games. Despite the Eagles having a lower volume pass attack, Brown still has at least six targets in every game this year. The only other WRs with at least six targets in every game this year are Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Michael Pittman, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb.
• Pierce now has at least 20 combined carries/targets in six straight games, and is an every week RB1 regardless of matchup. Against the Eagles, he was force fed 27 carries, turning them into 139 yards. While he wasn't targeted in Week 9, he did run 16 routes, and had at least three receptions in each of the four prior games.

Colts at Patriots (3 - 26)

• Our Head of Betting Ryan Reynolds nailed Sam Ehlinger, recommending a bet on him to throw zero TDs in Week 9. Sure enough, the 2021 sixth round pick struggled in his second NFL start, completing 52% of his passes at 3.6 yards per pass attempt (29 attempts for 103 passing yards, oof). No Indy pass catcher tallied more than 23 yards, and if the Colts remain with Ehlinger, no Colts pass catcher outside of Michael Pittman should be started in 12-team leagues.
• RB Deon Jackson may have injured his knee in this contest. If he's healthy for Week 10 and Jonathan Taylor misses another game, he's a strong start against the Raiders. Jackson carried 11 times and was targeted three times on 20 routes. If his knee injury is more serious, Jordan Wilkins (not Phillip Lindsay) is the RB to pick up on waivers. Wilkins was given three carries (to Lindsay's one) and was targeted five times on only 13 routes. It appears that he would be the all-purpose fantasy back in Week 10, should both Taylor and Jackson miss due to injury.
• Rhamondre Stevenson wasn't leaned on too heavily, as the Patriots steamrolled the Colts in this one. Backup RB JJ Taylor was handed ten carries, though he only turned them into nine rushing yards. Rhamondre was much more effective, tallying 60 yards on 15 carries. He was once again highly involved in the passing game, with seven targets, a receiving TD, and 16 PPR points in a blowout. He is an every week RB1 with at least five targets or 20+ fantasy points in seven straight games.

Packers at Lions (9 - 15)

• WR Romeo Doubs suffered a potentially season ending ankle injury. Allen Lazard is all that Aaron Rodgers has left in this passing game, and Lazard brought in four of ten targets for 87 yards and a TD. He had four end zone targets in this contest, and while Lazard is not a premier NFL talent, he is the only WR that is both in his prime and has Rodgers' trust. He's a WR2 moving forward, as he's shown he can command targets at a high level - 20%+ target share each of his past five games.
• D'Andre Swift is clearly not close to full health, and the Lions would do better to sit him in Week 10. This type of committee will render only Jamaal Williams start-able in fantasy football, though Williams' upside will be capped if Swift is commanding the targets out of this backfield until his shoulder is healthy enough to get more carries. Their Week 9 usage below.

Chargers at Falcons (20 - 17)

• Justin Herbert has fewer than 15 fantasy points in three of his past four games. Missing both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, Herbert was unable to capitalize on the Falcons and their league-worst pass defense. If both Williams/Allen miss Week 10, Herbert is a fringe fantasy option on Sunday Night Football, when the Chargers travel to San Francisco.
• Austin Ekeler continues to benefit from the Chargers' WR injuries, as he has at least seven targets in six of his past seven games. He's averaging 9.4 targets per game during this stretch, along with 27.1 PPR points per game. He's a Top-3 weekly option until the WR room gets healthier.
• Marcus Mariota has fewer than 150 passing yards in five of his past six games. This is the most dysfunctional pass attack in fantasy football, by leaps and bounds. I cannot recommend consistently starting any ATL pass catchers moving forward - Pitts at TE allows him to be a fringe weekly option, though he has more games below five fantasy points (five) than above ten fantasy points (three).

Bills at Jets (17 - 20)

• In Week 9, for the first time all season, Josh Allen didn't throw a TD pass. However, he still ran nine times for 86 yards and two TDs, totaling nearly 27 fantasy points. His combination of floor and ceiling is multiple fantasy points above any other fantasy QB.
• Nyheim Hines only played four offensive snaps in his first game with Buffalo. Rookie James Cook should be rostered in all formats after the team trusted him in a major role during a close divisional game. Nyheim Hines likely takes over a large portion of the pass-catching role, but Cook can become fantasy relevant with an injury to either Singletary or Hines - along with the potential for the rookie to simply play his way into an every week role. Week 9 RB stats below.

• The Jets running back room became an ugly committee for fantasy football purposes with James Robinson more integrated into the offense. While both Robinson and Carter had solid fantasy days, a committee on a below average offense is not a recipe for long-term fantasy success. Week 9 stats below.

Vikings at Commanders (20 - 17)

• Justin Jefferson had a monster fantasy performance, bringing in seven of 13 targets for 115 yards and a TD. Three of his targets came in the end zone. Jefferson has been remarkably consistent in fantasy despite not scoring in Weeks 2-8, as he had at least 98 yards in all but two of those games.
• TJ Hockenson had elite usage in his first game as a Viking. Hockenson ran a route on 84% of Cousins' dropbacks and caught all nine of his targets for 70 yards. While he didn't find the end zone, Hockenson did have three red zone targets. It's too early to proclaim that the historically up/down Hockenson is now a high-end TE1 rest of season, but this is certainly a very encouraging debut.
• Terry McLaurin continues to be a strong fantasy contributor with Taylor Heinicke, as he has out-targeted Curtis Samuel in all three games with Heinicke, averaging 8.5 targets per game and producing double digit fantasy points in each contest.

Panthers at Bengals (21 - 42)

• The Panthers came back down to Earth in Week 9, as the tanking franchise was blown out early by the Bengals. D'Onta Foreman only had seven carries as a result, and Baker Mayfield came in for the benched PJ Walker at halftime. Better days are in store for Foreman if Chuba Hubbard misses Week 10, as CAR plays ATL on Thursday Night. The Falcons' run-heavy offense is unlikely to blow out CAR, so Foreman should once again garner 15-25 touches.
• DJ Moore is a great trade target after only 24 yards in Week 9, as he is the only player with at least six targets in nine games this season. The Falcons are the worst pass defense in the NFL, and Moore should have a strong bounce back game regardless of QB.
• Terrace Marshall now has back-to-back games with at least a 20% target share and 12 PPR fantasy points. He's worth an add in deeper leagues, but it will be tough for multiple CAR pass catchers to be fantasy relevant each week - and DJ Moore is clearly the superior talent.
• This entire game was wrecked because Joe Mixon had four TDs in the first half. Mixon had 22 carries for 153 rushing yards, and four rushing TDs. Through the air, he was targeted five times, catching four for 58 yards and a fifth score. His 55.1 PPR points were the most by any player this season, and his 153 rushing yards were 71 more than he's had in any game this year.
• The Bengals barely needed to throw due to CAR's inability to stop Mixon on the ground, so Tee Higgins' seven catches for 60 yards receiving line masks his 27% target share in this contest. Better fantasy days are ahead for Tee Higgins.

Raiders at Jaguars (20 - 27)

• The Raiders have now blown three 17-point leads in 2022. Morale is surely low, but Davante Adams managed to have his best game as a Raider in Week 9. Adams brought in ten of 17 targets for 146 yards and two TDs (36.6 fantasy points). Adams is the only player in the NFL with multiple games of 17+ targets.
• Heading into Week 9, the Raiders had not allowed a 100-yard rusher. That changed this past Sunday, as Travis Etienne put up 109 yards on 28 carries. Etienne now has at least 108 total yards in five straight games and is a high end RB1 every week.
• Christian Kirk has a 20% or better target share in eight of nine games. His eight receptions in Week 9 were a season-high, and he compiled 76 yards and a TD. He now has a red zone or end zone target in all but one game this season. Every week high-end WR2 with this type of projectable volume.

Dolphins at Bears (35 - 32)

• No QB had thrown for 300 yards or three TDs against the Bears this season, until Tua Tagovailoa reached both marks in Week 9. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for over 50% of the targets, each topping 19 fantasy points. This offense continues to be hyper consolidated, with Hill and Waddle as Top-8 options every week in fantasy football.
• I'm officially concerned about Raheem Mostert. After several weeks as the workhorse back, newly traded-for Jeff Wilson stepped right in and took on half the work, proving far more effective on the ground and through the air. The Dolphins face the Browns in Week 10, and both should be flex viable in what should be a high-scoring contest. Their Week 9 usage is below.

• Justin Fields delivered the best fantasy QB performance of the season, with 42.7 fantasy points against Miami. This was his third straight game above 24 fantasy points, and he set the regular season record for most rushing yards by a QB (178) in the process. Week 9 was also the first time Fields threw three TDs in his career. Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts are clearly better fantasy options than Justin Fields moving forward, now that Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson are dealing with major skill player injuries, and Kyler Murray’s efficiency has been way down this season.
• Darnell Mooney quietly has a 21% or higher target share in each of the past seven games. He's commanded a red zone or end zone target in each of the past five games, too. He should be started as a WR3 type moving forward.

Seahawks at Cardinals (31 - 21)

• The Seahawks offense fired on all cylinders in Week 9. Geno Smith averaged over eight yards per pass attempt, tossing two TDs and putting up his third game above 20 fantasy points this season. Kenneth Walker ran 26 times for 109 yards and two TDs, and now has 23 red zone carries over his past four games. Walker is now averaging 22 carries per game over his past four contests as the starter, and I'd continue to stash DeeJay Dallas, who would step into a sizable role should Walker go down with injury.
• Noah Fant had his best game of the season, totaling 96 yards on six targets. However, his rest of season fantasy outlook is still highly murky, as he only ran a route on 63% of Geno's dropbacks. The Cardinals have allowed the most yards per game to opposing TEs, so I'd tread carefully if/when bidding on Noah Fant off waivers.
• James Conner returned in Week 9, but he split more work than expected with Eno Benjamin. For Conner to be a fantasy difference maker, he'll need a larger share of the carries split in future weeks. The most encouraging part of Conner's return was the pass game involvement, as he ran a route on 66% of Kyler Murray's dropbacks. Week 9 RB stats are shown below.

Rams at Buccaneers (13 - 16)

• Matthew Stafford has only topped 20 fantasy points in one game this season and has more games without a passing TD (two) than with multiple TDs (one). No Rams skill position player outside of Cooper Kupp can be trusted in fantasy moving forward, as the team's offensive line woes are holding everyone back.
• Van Jefferson had five targets in Week 9 (19% share) but caught none of them. He is still without a catch through two games in 2022 and should remain on waivers. The deep threat on a team that cannot block is a recipe for failure.
• Tom Brady has only one game above 18 fantasy points and should remain on waivers like Stafford. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain strong starts in PPR leagues despite this, as Brady's lack of fantasy points is TD-related. Both Evans and Godwin reached double digit targets in Week 9, their third straight game accomplishing this feat.
• Rachaad White is eating into Fournette's receiving work, as White has averaged 15 routes run over the past five games. Fournette is at 30 routes per game in this span, but rookies historically increase their usage as the season moves on. I'd look to move on from Fournette in fantasy, and you can get a strong WR in return for him if a league mate is RB-needy.

Titans at Chiefs (17 - 20)

• Malik Willis completed five of 16 passes for 80 yards against the Chiefs, who had been one of the worst fantasy defenses against QBs in 2022. Any week that he starts over Ryan Tannehill is a great week to start none of the TEN pass catchers.
• Derrick Henry has 23 or more fantasy points in five of his past six games, with at least 115 total yards in all six games.
• Patrick Mahomes has more games with over 30 fantasy points (three) than under 20 fantasy points (two) this season.
• None of the KC RBs can be trusted in fantasy, after Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco combined for 11 total touches and 28 total yards. Jerick McKinnon played 57 snaps (20 for Pacheco, 14 for CEH), and ran 50 routes, the most among an NFL RB all season. He corralled six of eight targets for 40 yards, with two of those targets coming in the red zone. It's nearly impossible to predict what the weekly split among these backs will be.
• Kadarius Toney only ran six routes in his Chiefs debut, but he did command two targets, the highest targets per route run among KC receivers in Week 9. It was evident that KC WRs struggled to separate in this contest, and Toney has massive potential rest of season, as he's clearly the best separator in this WR room.

We hope you enjoyed these 33 fantasy takeaways from Week 9. Be on the lookout for Josh Larky's Week 10 fantasy rankings, dropping Tuesday afternoon.

WATCH MORE: Week 10 Advice for Week 9’s Fantasy Stars

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.