Fantasy
10/24/22
13 min read
33 Fantasy Takeaways From Week 7
Below, you'll find 33 fantasy takeaways from Week 7. I distill all the advanced data for you to help streamline your weekly research. I'll always focus on usage over fantasy points, as NFL teams focus exclusively on usage/playing time. With the right usage, the fantasy points will follow.
Saints at Cardinals (34 - 42)
- Alvin Kamara is an elite RB1 type rest of season. He now has at least 17.5 PPR points in three straight games, with over 100 total yards in each game. He has eight red zone carries (one goal line) and four red zone targets in this span, too. This is now the third straight week that I'm recommending Kamara as an excellent trade target in redraft.
- Many were concerned about Chris Olave against ARI's CB Byron Murphy, especially since both Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry weren't active. Olave was targeted 14 times, catching seven for 106 yards. Olave is definitely approaching the elite tier of fantasy WRs that are borderline matchup-proof. He is a fringe Top-12 WR rest of season.
- Eno Benjamin is a classic case of trusting the usage, knowing the fantasy points will follow. After handling 15 of 18 carries and all three RB targets in Week 6 (only 9.5 PPR points), Eno had a massive fantasy day in Week 7. Eno carried 12 times and was targeted five times, turning that into 113 total yards, a TD, and 21.3 PPR points.
- DeAndre Hopkins had a 48% target share in his return, reeling in ten of 14 targets for 103 yards. The Cardinals scored two defensive TDs in this one, so Hopkins has WR1 overall upside any given week if ARI is forced into negative game scripts moving forward.
Browns at Ravens (20 - 23)
- David Njoku, our late-round TE king, injured his ankle and will be out for roughly a month. Prioritize TE Harrison Bryant on waivers, who has four games with at least four targets this season. The Cleveland offense is very TE-centric, and Bryant likely has top-12 fantasy viability until Njoku returns.
- I did not expect Gus Edwards to get workhorse usage in his first game back from a multi-ligament knee injury. Edwards paced the Ravens' backfield with 16 carries, turning them into 66 yards and two TDs. Edwards handled three of four red zone carries, and had one of the two goal line rush attempts. He is a mid-range RB2 moving forward as this appears to be the role I had hoped JK Dobbins would assume by midseason.
JK Dobbins gets 7 carries in his first game of 2022
Gus Edwards gets 16 carries in his first game of 2022
I did not see Edwards being a workhorse right out of the gate
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 24, 2022
- Mark Andrews once again showed why I'll continue to rank Travis Kelce TE1 any time Rashod Bateman is active. The floor is incredibly low, as Andrews had zero catches on two targets, his second game of 3.5 or fewer fantasy points this year.
Buccaneers at Panthers (3 - 21)
- Tampa getting stomped by the Panthers is the most surprising game result through Week 7. The one predictable part was the target distribution. Anytime TB trails, expect massive volume for both Mike Evans (15 targets, 31% share) and Chris Godwin (13 targets, 27% share). Tom Brady gets the Ravens on Thursday night, who are allowing a generous 8.2 yards per attempt to opposing passers, much friendlier than the Panthers at 6.8 yards.
- Chuba Hubbard injured his ankle in the fourth quarter, and D'Onta Foreman handled the majority of the rushing work. Foreman turned 15 carries into 118 yards, thanks to a 60-yard rush. Foreman also brought in both targets (ten routes) for 27 yards receiving. Should Chuba miss Week 8, Foreman should be startable on the road vs. ATL.
- D.J. Moore was likely featured to help facilitate a trade (rumors are swirling). His ten targets were 48% of the team's total, and he brought in seven for 69 yards and a TD. Moore is still unlikely to be more than a frustrating WR3/WR4 type rest of season unless a trade happens, though, due to QB play - no CAR QB has thrown for more than 215 yards over the past six weeks.
Falcons at Bengals (17 - 35)
- The Falcons trailed throughout this game, often by multiple scores. Even still, they threw just 13 times on 19 Marcus Mariota dropbacks. I'd bench (not drop) both Drake London and Kyle Pitts in fantasy football until we see a gameplan more conducive to fantasy football.
- Joe Burrow threw for 481 yards and three TDs, also carrying three times for 20 yards and a TD. This is now back-to-back weeks of at least 32 fantasy points for Burrow, and he's had at least 20 points in all but two games this season. Given the state of the QB position, Burrow should be a top-6 QB any given week moving forward.
Lions at Cowboys (6 - 24)
- This was a strange game for the DET offense, as it lost Amon-Ra St. Brown early due to a concussion in this one. D.J. Chark is on IR, so if Amon-Ra misses any time, both Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond should be started in fantasy against a weak MIA secondary in Week 8. Reynolds is likely going to be dropped after bringing in just one of two targets for eight yards yesterday. Scoop him up, as four of his six games have gone over 12 fantasy points, and he has eight or more targets and 81 or more yards in half his games this season.
- Ezekiel Elliott and his potential knee injury should be monitored closely. This was the first game all season that Tony Pollard out-snapped Zeke (37 - 31), and the knee contusion likely contributed to this. I'll be ranking Tony Pollard ahead of Zeke in Week 8 if practice reports this week indicate Zeke is limited in any fashion.
Giants at Jaguars (23 - 17)
- If you were targeting Kadarius Toney in fantasy like I was, then you'll love Wan'Dale Robinson. Robinson appears to be the guy who will capitalize on the weak NYG depth chart, and he's elusive after the catch. A huge game will be coming soon, and his stats since returning from injury are shown below.
| Week | Routes | Targets (Share) | Rec | Yards | PPR |
| 6 | 11 | 4 (16%) | 3 | 37 | 12.7 |
| 7 | 29 | 8 (28%) | 6 | 50 | 11 |
- Travis Etienne handled 14 of 15 RB carries and ran 20 routes, getting targeted five times. Etienne had 119 total yards on the day, and James Robinson and JaMycal Hasty combined for just six total yards. Patience with Etienne is paying off, and he is still a trade target if the Etienne manager in your league values him as anything less than a top-15 RB rest of season.
- Another test of patience was Christian Kirk, who corralled seven of ten targets for 96 yards in Week 7. Kirk had a 20% target share in all but one game this year, yet had three straight games of four or fewer receptions. His Week 7 is much more typical of what we should expect going forward as the clear WR1 in JAX.
Packers at Commanders (21 - 23)
- AJ Dillon had over 20 fantasy points in Week 1. Since then, he has not been startable in fantasy, with single-digit fantasy points in each of the past six weeks. His per game averages (alongside Aaron Jones for context) during this stretch are below.
| Player | Snaps | Carries (RZ) | Routes | Targets | Total Yards | PPR |
| Aaron Jones | 41 | 12 (1.5) | 22 | 4.7 | 89 | 16.7 |
| AJ Dillon | 29 | 11 (1) | 14 | 2.3 | 48 | 6.2 |
- With Taylor Heinicke in at QB, I ranked Terry McLaurin ahead of Curtis Samuel, as McLaurin was the only one with real experience/rapport playing with Heinicke. Still just a one game sample, but it was the first game that Samuel didn't out-target McLaurin. Their Week 7 usage is below.
| Player | Routes | Targets | Rec | Yards | Air Yards | PPR |
| Terry McLaurin | 34 | 8 | 5 | 73 | 96 | 18.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 28 | 8 | 5 | 53 | 39 | 12.9 |
Colts at Titans (10 - 19)
- All the IND WRs are now sell lows in fantasy after the Colts announced Sam Ehlinger will be starting over Matt Ryan indefinitely. Ryan had thrown for 287 yards per game through seven weeks, and Ehlinger is not that type of QB. Ehlinger put up good, not great, numbers at the University of Texas before getting selected in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He ran over 11 times per game all four years in college, and should pull numerous pass attempts out of the offense. Ehlinger at QB downgrades all Colts skill players moving forward.
- Derrick Henry now has three straight games with at least 102 rushing yards and two receptions. He is a high-end RB1 regardless of who is under center. Ryan Tannehill injured his ankle in Week 7, and should he miss Week 8, Malik Willis is a viable streamer at QB due to his mobility. However, due to his deficiencies as a passer, no TEN receivers should be started if he's under center.
Texans at Raiders (20 - 38)
- After double-digit targets in each of his first two games, Brandin Cooks has failed to top seven targets or 57 receiving yards in the subsequent four contests. If Cooks cannot get it done in Week 8 against a Titans team allowing over 200 yards per game to WRs, he can be benched moving forward.
- Josh Jacobs now has 30+ PPR points in three straight games, with 143 or more rushing yards in all of them. He is an elite RB1 type the rest of the season, as he's getting almost all of the team's carries and targets. There is currently no RB that I would definitively prefer to have rest of season, so if you can trade Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey away for Josh Jacobs plus another strong fantasy asset, I would make that move.
Jets at Broncos (16 - 9)
- This game saw injuries to both Breece Hall (season-ending) and Corey Davis. Without Hall, I'd postulate the Jets shift to a less run-heavy game plan, which should benefit the WRs. Pick up Elijah Moore if he's on waivers, as we could see a seismic shift in their offensive gameplan moving forward. Michael Carter does not have the size nor speed to imitate the fantasy production or real life NFL value of Hall.
- Mike Boone was injured in this contest, but this still has the makings of an ugly RB committee. Gordon handled the bulk of the carries and receiving work, but Latavius Murray was the goal line back - likely due to Gordon's fumbling issues this season. Week 7 usage is below for the DEN RBs.
| Player | Snaps | Carries (RZ/GL) | Routes | Targets | Total Yards | PPR |
| Melvin Gordon | 39 | 11 | 27 | 4 | 50 | 7 |
| Latavius Murray | 28 | 8 (2/1) | 15 | 3 | 23 | 10.3 |
| Mike Boone | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 2.3 |
Chiefs at 49ers (44 - 23)
- I am not comfortable starting any KC RBs in fantasy. Week 7 saw a true, three-way committee, and if someone is selling a KC RB before their Week 8 bye, you should not be buying. Week 7 usage below, in a game where Isiah Pacheco was announced as the "starter."
| Player | Snaps | Carries (RZ) | Routes | Targets | Total Yards | PPR |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 17 | 6 (2) | 8 | 1 | 32 | 9.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 23 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 48 | 6.8 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 18 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 43 | 4.3 |
- We should not be reading into Christian McCaffrey's Week 7 usage, as he was traded to the 49ers just three days before their Week 7 game against KC. If you want to read more about what CMC to SF means going forward, I wrote up my detailed thoughts here on his rest of season fantasy value.
- Concern is mounting for Deebo Samuel though, who has seen both his rush attempts and target share dwindling over the past two weeks. Both Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle have more targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, and end zone targets over the past two weeks. Christian McCaffrey should continue to be further integrated into the short passing game, and Brandon Aiyuk is likely the one with the least overlap to CMC's role.
Seahawks at Chargers (37 - 23)
- Kenneth Walker now has back-to-back games with at least 21 carries and 110 or more total yards. He is an RB1 rest of season, and has run more routes than DeeJay Dallas in both of his starts now. For more analysis on how the DK Metcalf injury affects the SEA pass-catchers, I wrote up my thoughts on all the Week 7 injuries here.
- Mike Williams suffered a high ankle sprain and should be out for at least the next month. Josh Palmer is a priority waiver pickup even though LAC has a Week 8 bye. Palmer has at least eight targets and double-digit fantasy points in half his games this year. WR DeAndre Carter is also a sneaky waiver wire pickup prior to LAC's Week 8 bye after he commanded seven targets, including an end zone look, in Week 7.
- Austin Ekeler is now the overall RB1 in fantasy, as he has at least 24 PPR points in four straight, with 34.9 or more in three of his last four. Ekeler is on pace for 129 receptions, which would break McCaffrey's RB record by 13.
Steelers at Dolphins (10 - 16)
- 51 different RBs have a game over 15.1 PPR points on the season, which is currently the most Najee Harris has had in any game this season (Week 3). Once again, Harris ceded some valuable work to backup RB Jaylen Warren, who had more receiving yards than Harris in Week 7. Najee is nothing more than a back-end RB2 type if he cannot capture nearly 100% of the Steelers' RB work. Overall, the Steelers' RB room has totaled just 14.7 PPR points per game in 2022.
- Over the past four games, Diontae Johnson has six more targets than George Pickens, yet Pickens is averaging 94% more receiving yards per game (68 - 35). The Steelers have become more pass-happy of late, and it's helped Pickens reach 14 PPR points in three of his past four games.
- Raheem Mostert has now run at least 20 routes in four straight games, and is averaging 16 carries, three targets, and 14 PPR points per game over that span. Mostert is the sneakiest bell cow in fantasy football, and will be ranked as a Top-15 RB or better each week moving forward. Only Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette have 20 or more routes run each of the past four games, for bell cow context.
We hope you enjoyed reading these fantasy takeaways from Week 7. Stay tuned for Josh Larky's Week 8 fantasy rankings, which will be released tomorrow afternoon - with no paywall - on our site.
WATCH MORE: A Betting Preview for Week 8
