Fantasy

12/5/22

14 min read

33 Fantasy Takeaways From Week 13

By Josh Larky

fantasy takeaways from week 13

Below, you’ll find (at least) 33 fantasy football takeaways from Week 13. Advanced usage data is examined each week, as usage is a much better indicator of future fantasy points than current fantasy points.

Essentially, NFL teams never look at fantasy points, so we shouldn’t focus too much attention on them either if we want to predict what teams will do moving forward.

Bills at Patriots (24 - 10)

  • James Cook may have taken over the 1A role in the Bills' backfield, as he had more total carries, more red zone carries, ran more routes, and had more targets than Devin Singletary. Cook reached 105 total yards in this game, and Singletary's Week 6 performance was the only other time a Bills RB reached 100 yards this season. The second round rookie is a high priority waiver add, as he received red zone carries and targets (the two high-value fantasy touches for RBs) on one of the NFL's best offenses. Their Week 13 usage is shown below.
Player Snaps Carries (RZ) Routes Targets Total Yards PPR
Devin Singletary 32 13 (1) 13 2 51 11.1
James Cook 32 14 (4) 15 6 105 16.5
  • Even though Gabe Davis was held to just 15 yards, his usage continues to tick up. His 21% target share (seven targets) in Week 13 marked the fourth time in the past six games that he has seen at least 21% of Allen's targets. He remains a WR2 type, even though he has only 53 total yards in his past two games.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson disappointed fantasy managers with only 13.8 PPR points against Buffalo, in a game where Damien Harris was OUT due to injury. However, the usage was truly elite. Stevenson handled 91% of the RB carries, ran a route on a whopping 87% of Mac Jones' dropbacks, and led the team with eight targets (next closest were Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry with five). Rhamondre remains a high-end RB1 each week based on his usage. Put another way, how many RBs disappoint you when they total 13.8 fantasy points - not many.

Packers at Bears (28 - 19)

  • Aaron Jones missed part of this game due to injury, which explains why AJ Dillon out-snapped (42 vs. 24), out-touched (21 vs. 14), and out-produced him in fantasy (20.9 vs. 10.0 PPR points).
  • Christian Watson has at least six targets, 82 air yards, and 21 fantasy points in four straight games. Watson tied for the team lead with six targets in Week 13, catching three for 48 yards and a TD. He also had a 46 yard rushing TD in this contest. Watson has scored eight times over his past four games, an unsustainable pace. However, his underlying metrics (five end zone targets over his past four games) suggest WR2 caliber fantasy stats should continue.
  • Without Darnell Mooney, Justin Fields was still able to shine as a passer, completing 20 of 25 passes (80%) for 254 yards (10.2 yards per attempt). He also ran six times for 71 yards and a TD, finishing with 21.3 fantasy points. After not allowing a QB to reach 20 fantasy points through Week 9, the past four QBs Green Bay has faced - Dak Prescott, Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields - have all cracked 20 fantasy points.
  • In three games without Khalil Herbert, David Montgomery is averaging 15 carries (2.7 red zone), 69 rushing yards, 20 routes, 4.3 targets, 31 receiving yards, and 17.4 fantasy points per game. Neither Darrynton Evans nor Trestan Ebner have been able to take on the Khalil Herbert committee role in this offense.

Steelers at Falcons (19 - 16)

  • Diontae Johnson brought in five of 11 targets (41% share) for 60 yards, totaling 11.0 PPR points. That was his highest fantasy output since Week 5, when he also totaled 11.0 PPR points. Diontae has not been start-able in fantasy all season, but the underlying metrics point to a potential turnaround. Diontae has not scored a TD this season, but has eight red zone (nine end zone) targets, and Week 13's 125 air yards were his fifth game of the season with at least 107 air yards. I'm not confidently starting him in fantasy due to the overall offense, but Diontae should at least improve his fantasy numbers moving forward.
  • George Pickens has cooled off since his 102 and 83 yard performances in Weeks 4 and 5. Since Week 6, Pickens is averaging 4.7 targets and 37 yards per game, averaging only 9.5 fantasy points during this stretch. He should remain on fantasy benches.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has been a committee back since returning from injury in Week 9. His per game stats since Week 9 are contrasted with rookie RB Tyler Allgeier below.
Player Snaps Carries (RZ) Routes Targets Total Yards PPR
Cordarrelle Patterson 26 10 (2) 11 1.8 53 9.1
Tyler Allgeier 26 9 (0.4) 10 1 59 6.9
  • Marcus Mariota has thrown for fewer than 190 passing yards in nine of his past ten games. Drake London had 95 yards and 15.5 fantasy points in Week 13. But, he needed a 50% target share and 57% yardage share against PIT to accomplish that feat. Drake London should remain on fantasy benches.

Jets at Vikings (22 - 27)

  • Mike White has thrown for at least 315 yards in both starts this season. His presence elevates every pass-catcher in New York.
  • Undrafted rookie RB Zonovan Knight totaled 103 total yards in his NFL debut in Week 12. He followed that up with 118 total yards in Week 13. Knight is here to stay, and may be the lead back even when Michael Carter returns from injury. Knight has at least 14 carries and three catches in both games, too. Knight is an RB2-type until Carter returns from injury, and Ty Johnson is the clear handcuff, as he out-snapped James Robinson (28 - 8) in Week 13. Johnson can be used as a bye week fill-in for Week 14, as he caught six of seven targets in Week 13, finishing with double digit fantasy points for the second straight week.
  • Garrett Wilson has played five games with Joe Flacco/Mike White. Wilson has played seven games with Zach Wilson. His splits couldn't be more pronounced, and he's a high-end WR2 (at least) moving forward.
Player Routes Targets (Rec) RecYds Air Yards PPR
With Flacco/White 38 11 (6) 94 122 20.4
With Wilson 28 5 (4) 46 38 8.4
  • Adam Thielen has not totaled more than 72 yards in a games this season. He has fewer than ten fantasy points in seven of 12 games, and is little more than a WR3 each week.

Jaguars at Lions (14 - 40)

  • Travis Etienne didn't succeed in fantasy in Week 13, but he was a total bell cow despite some concern about his foot. Etienne handled 13 of 14 RB carries, and ran 26 of 29 RB routes against Detroit. He ran a route on 72% of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks this past Sunday, a truly elite number. Better fantasy days are ahead for Etienne.
  • Christian Kirk destroyed the Lions out of the slot in Week 13, catching six of eight targets for 104 yards. Kirk remains a fantasy WR2 each week, as he only has one game this season with a sub 20% target share.

  • D'Andre Swift was finally off the injury report in Week 13. He out-snapped (38 vs. 23), out-carried (14 vs. 11), out-targeted (six vs. zero), out-gained (111 yards vs. 35 yards), and out-produced Jamaal Williams in fantasy (21.1 vs. 9.5). Swift is an RB1 moving forward, and has a friendly schedule rest of season for fantasy.

  • Rookie WR Jameson Williams ran two routes in Week 13, getting targeted once. He needs at least one more week before we can consider starting him in fantasy football. Premier bench stash, but likely stays on your bench until Week 16 against Carolina.

Titans at Eagles (10 - 35)

  • Derrick Henry has averaged no more than 3.1 yards per carry in each of his past four games. He has 68 total rushing yards over his past two games. Fortunately for Henry, he faces the Jaguars in Week 14, the perfect bounce back spot.
  • Treylon Burks caught a 25 yard TD pass in the first quarter, but was concussed in the process. His practice status will be monitored all week. If he cannot go in Week 14, no TEN WRs should be started in fantasy in his absence.
  • Jalen Hurts has endured four straight difficult matchups for fantasy QBs (WAS, IND, GB, TEN), yet has at least 22.8 fantasy points in each contest. He has usurped Josh Allen for the rest of season QB1 spot, as Josh Allen's elbow injury appears to be holding back his passing ceiling.
  • AJ Brown had his revenge game in Week 13, catching eight of 10 targets (26% share) for 119 yards and two TDs (31.9 PPR). DeVonta Smith also caught five of eight targets for 102 yards and a TD (21.2 PPR). This was the first week both WRs reached 20 fantasy points in the same game.

Browns at Texans (27 - 14)

  • Deshaun Watson completed just 12 of 22 passes (55%) for 131 yards (6.0 yards per attempt). He ran seven times for 21 yards. He did not record a TD pass, but he did record his first interception of 2022. His 6.3 fantasy points demonstrated that his 2022 floor will be quite low after not seeing NFL game action for 700 days. I still believe Watson will be a better overall QB than Jacoby Brissett, but it likely takes at least one more week until we see an elite fantasy/real life performance from Watson.
  • Dameon Pierce had a nice bounce back game against the Browns. After totaling 16 yards on 15 carries in Weeks 11 and 12 combined, Pierce carried 18 times for 73 yards, and he caught all three targets for 22 yards. He remains a high-end RB2 in easy matchups, and a low-end RB3 in difficult ones, as the Texans' offense remains near the bottom of the NFL in every category.
  • With Brandin Cooks missing Week 13 due to a calf injury, Nico Collins displayed elite usage. He had ten targets (27% share) and 173 air yards (50% share), but only brought in three catches for 35 yards and a TD. Should Cooks miss Week 14, Collins would be a top-30 option, now that we know the Texans are willing to funnel their passing offense through him.

Commanders at Giants (20 - 20)

  • Brian Robinson is averaging 20 carries and 86 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks. He's the clear lead back in Washington, as Gibson is only averaging 12 carries and three targets per game over this span. Robinson is even out-scoring Gibson in PPR scoring per game (13.5 vs. 11.1).
  • Jahan Dotson had a career high nine targets (22.5% share) in Week 13. He remains an interesting bench stash rest of season, as Curtis Samuel is fading (five of his past six games with four or fewer targets).
  • Darius Slayton is averaging six targets, four catches, 69 yards, 81 air yards, and 12.4 PPR points per game since Week 5. He should be started as a WR3 type every week in fantasy.

Broncos at Ravens (9 - 10)

  • Latavius Murray continues to lead the Broncos backfield, with back-to-back double digit fantasy performances despite not scoring in either contest. He's an RB3 each week, as he should flirt with 20 touches every week on arguably the NFL's most disappointing offense.
  • Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy were both dealing with injuries in Week 13, and each ran only ten routes. TE Greg Dulcich led the team with 21 routes run, bringing in six of eight targets (38% target share) for 85 yards. After a string of bad games, Dulcich is once again interesting, as the TE landscape is a wasteland aside from five to seven guys each week.
  • Lamar Jackson was injured early in this contest, and should miss Week 14 (at least). Tyler Huntley is a viable QB streamer in Week 14 against PIT, as six teams are on bye in Week 14. Huntley completed 84% of his passes for 187 yards, and ran ten times for 41 yards and a TD. Huntley should be treated as only a slight downgrade from Lamar Jackson for fantasy purposes.

Dolphins at 49ers (17 - 33)

  • The Miami backfield is now an absolute mess for fantasy football. It appeared that Jeff Wilson was the clear lead back, until Raheem Mostert had seven times as many touches as Wilson against San Francisco. I will be approaching this backfield with caution in Week 14.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo broke his foot early in this game and is out for the remainder of the season. QB Brock Purdy was a revelation for Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey led the team in targets (ten), receptions (eight), and yards (80). He had two of the team's four red zone targets, too. Jordan Mason handled eight of 25 RB carries in this game, and appears to be the fantasy handcuff to stash on your bench.

Seahawks at Rams (27 - 23)

  • Only Patrick Mahomes (seven) has more games with 320 or more passing yards than Geno Smith (four) this season. Geno has at least 275 passing yards and 21 fantasy points in four straight games, and now he gets Carolina in Week 14.
  • Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dalls both suffered injuries in Week 13. Tony Jones was at one point the lead back in this contest. It appears DeeJay Dallas will be the lead back in Week 14 for SEA, if he's healthy enough to play (probably). Dallas carried ten times and was targeted once across 32 snaps in Week 13. Dallas should be a low-end RB2 in this upcoming matchup, as he is a competent runner and pass catcher.
  • Cam Akers was the most surprising bell cow of Week 13, as he handled 17 of 20 RB carries, and ran 19 of 30 RB routes. Akers totaled 60 yards and scored twice. Kyren Williams carried three times for nine yards and failed to corral his only target (11 routes). Akers is nearly impossible to trust on Thursday night against the Raiders, but he should be stashed on fantasy benches. If Week 14 is anything like Week 13, Akers could be a nice RB2/RB3 type for the fantasy playoffs.
  • No Rams pass catcher reached 50 yards in Week 12 or Week 13, and none should be started in fantasy against the Raiders on Thursday night.

Chargers at Raiders (20 - 27)

  • Josh Palmer is a borderline top-24 fantasy WR until Mike Williams returns from injury. Palmer has been quite productive from Week 6 onward (six games), averaging 9.7 targets, 6.7 receptions, 72 receiving yards, and 15.8 fantasy points per game.
  • The Raiders are 5-7 and close to being mathematically eliminated from the NFL playoffs. However, they have two players having historic seasons. Josh Jacobs is on pace for 2,315 total yards, while Davante Adams is on pace for 1,666 yards and 17 TDs.

  • Foster Moreau now has nine straight games with at least 28 yards receiving. He's a floor play at the TE position, who can be started in 12-team leagues each week.

Chiefs at Bengals (24 - 27)

  • Isiah Pacheco lost his stranglehold on the KC backfield in Week 13. Jerick McKinnon took eight of the 22 carries, and ran 14 routes to Pacheco's 11. Pacheco remains a weekly RB3 with RB2 upside in the right matchup, while McKinnon is a weekly flex play and premium handcuff.
  • Joe Mixon missed his second straight game while in the concussion protocol. Samaje Perine was given the Mixon+ role once again, handling 21 of 22 RB carries, and receiving seven of the eight RB targets. Perine now has 30.2, 19.3, and 21.5 PPR points over his past three games. I'd expect Mixon to return in Week 14, but it's clear that Perine is a top-5 fantasy option anytime Mixon is injured.
  • In his first game back, Ja'Marr Chase ran a route on 35 of Joe Burrow's 36 dropbacks, catching seven of eight targets for 97 yards.

Colts at Cowboys (19 - 54)

  • Rookie WR Alec Pierce led the team with eight targets (23% share) against the Cowboys, catching four passes for 86 yards and a TD. After totaling four catches over his prior four games, the rookie may be back on the fantasy radar. Optimistically, he has at least eight targets in two of his past three games. Pessimistically, even Michael Pittman cannot be trusted as a weekly fantasy option in this Colts offense. The Colts have a bye this week, and rookies often increase their involvement following a bye week. If you have room on your bench, Pierce is worth the stash to see what he does in Weeks 15-17.
  • After a few weeks where it looked like Tony Pollard may have taken over the Cowboys lead back duties, Ezekiel Elliott reclaimed that role against Indianapolis. Zeke out-snapped (35 vs. 28) and out-carried (17 vs. 12) Pollard. Both back were targeted three times on 14 routes, but Pollard had the better fantasy day, scoring twice. However, Zeke handled three of four red zone carries and two of the three goal line attempts. While Pollard will usually total more yards than Zeke each week, Elliott is still the more likely to find the box every week based on usage.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these fantasy takeaways from Week 13. Stay tuned for my rankings, dropping Tuesday afternoon on The 33rd Team site.

Tags: 2022 NFL Week 13, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Recap See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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