Below, you’ll find (at least) 33 fantasy football takeaways from Week 12. Advanced usage data is examined each week, as usage is a much better indicator of future fantasy points than current fantasy points.
Essentially, NFL teams never look at fantasy points, so we shouldn’t focus too much attention on them either if we want to predict what teams will do moving forward.
Bills at Lions (28 – 25)
- Heading into Week 12, 14 WRs had at least 40 receiving yards against the Detroit Lions from the slot, and eight WRs had at least 69 receiving yards out of the slot. Isaiah McKenzie added to this trend of slot WRs destroying the Lions, as he had six catches (on ten targets) for 96 yards and a TD (22.3 PPR points). I wouldn’t take too much away from this for McKenzie’s fantasy value the rest of the season, as the Lions are the premier matchup for slot WRs.
- While James Cook had five targets in this game, he only ran nine routes to Devin Singletary’s 33. Singletary has always been an inefficient receiving back, but I wouldn’t expect a five-to-one target split in Cook’s favor if he continues running nearly four times fewer routes than Singletary.
- D’Andre Swift continues to have elite usage anytime he’s out on the field. His issue is how often the team lets him take carries and run routes. Two of Swift’s five carries were in the red zone, and he was targeted eight times on only 14 routes, with three of those targets coming in the red zone, as well. Swift should score a TD most weeks with this type of usage, but it’s tough for him to have any high-end fantasy viability until he’s splitting rushing work closer to 50-50 with Jamaal Williams.
Giants at Cowboys (20 – 28)
- More than half of the Giants’ offensive line has been dealing with injuries the past two games. In that time period, Saquon Barkley has averaged 13 carries for only 31 rushing yards, and despite getting 5.5 targets per game, has averaged just three catches for 13 receiving yards. Overall, he’s putting up 10.4 PPR points per game the past two weeks. The Giants face a Commanders run defense that’s only allowed one RB (Derrick Henry) to top 76 rushing yards on the season. Even still, Henry only averaged 3.6 yards per carry in that contest. Saquon is a low-end RB1 this coming week, with high projected workload against a defense that’s well-equipped to bottle him up.
- Ezekiel Elliott returned from a knee injury in Week 11, so we can reasonably assume he was fully healthy in Week 12. If that’s the case, this game was the first time all season that a healthy Zeke was out-snapped by Tony Pollard. While Zeke was more efficient in Week 12, I’d expect Pollard to have the efficiency edge rest of season. Their Week 12 usage is shown below.
|Player||Snaps||Carries (RZ)||Routes||Targets||Total Yards||PPR|
|Tony Pollard||39||18 (1)||8||2||61||8.1|
|Ezekiel Elliott||36||16 (1)||12||1||95||16.5|
Patriots at Vikings (26 – 33)
- Mac Jones had his first game of 2022 with multiple TD passes (two TD passes, 382 passing yards) in Week 12. It was his first game topping 19 fantasy points (23.3), as well. He remains nothing more than a 2-QB league option each week, as he lacks consistent pass volume, rushing upside, and elite receiving options.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has at least five targets in eight of his past nine games, totaling at least 12.9 fantasy points in all nine games. He remains a mid-range RB1 each week based on that floor combined with his ceiling (six of his past nine with at least 19.5 fantasy points).
- Jakobi Meyers missed most of this contest due to injury, running only 15 routes. DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, and Hunter Henry all had at least 30 routes run in Week 12, with Agholor leading NE receivers in targets (eight) and Parker leading the team in yards (80). Rhamondre led the team overall in targets (ten) and receptions (nine).
- Dalvin Cook totaled just 56 total yards on 22 carries and five targets. However, seven of his carries were in the red zone (two at the goal line), and one of his targets was in the red zone. He will bounce back in fantasy based on this elite usage.
- T.J. Hockenson has at least nine targets or 11.5 fantasy points in all four games with the Vikings. After six red zone (two end zone) targets through three games, Hockenson had two more red zone (one end zone) targets in Week 12, snagging his first TD with Minnesota. He remains the fantasy TE3 rest of season behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
Texans at Dolphins (15 – 30)
- Dameon Pierce has totaled 15 carries for 16 rushing yards over his past two games, with nine targets and 17 yards receiving in that span. Pierce faced the Commanders and Dolphins the past two weeks, both top-5 run defenses, so we should expect a bounce back in Week 13 when he faces a Browns’ defense allowing 5.2 yards per carry to opposing RBs.
- In Kyle Allen’s first start of 2022, he targeted Nico Collins 24% of the time, and Brandin Cooks just 13% of the time. The disappointing season for Cooks continues, and I wouldn’t confidently start any HOU WR in fantasy moving forward.
- Tua Tagovailoa now has at least 285 passing yards in four straight games, and he had 278 passing yards in the first half of Week 12 against the Texans. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes are the only QBs I’d confidently prefer over Tua rest of season in fantasy.
- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for at least 50% of MIA’s targets in nine of 11 games this season.
Bengals at Titans (20 – 16)
- Ja’Marr Chase missed the past four games for the Bengals. Tyler Boyd has been out-produced by both Tee Higgins and Hayden Hurst during this stretch. He’s nothing more than a WR4-type rest of season, with Chase expected to return in Week 13. The past four games without Chase are shown below.
|Player||Routes||Targets (Rec)||RecYds||Air Yards||PPR|
|Tee Higgins||37||9 (6.5)||93||104||18.8|
|Tyler Boyd||37||5.5 (3)||35||48||8|
|Hayden Hurst||29||5.2 (4.2)||41||29||8.3|
- Derrick Henry had 38 rushing yards in Week 12, his second-lowest total of the year. However, he salvaged his fantasy day with three receptions for 79 yards. He has at least five PPR fantasy points through the air in five of his past nine games.
- Ryan Tannehill has at least 255 passing yards in three straight games, coinciding with Treylon Burks’ return to the lineup. Burks has at least six targets in all three games, reaching 70 yards in two of them. Tannehill remains a streaming QB based on matchup, while Burks is a top-24 fantasy WR rest of season based on his combination of current production and ceiling potential as he continue to fully integrate into this offense. Burks’ route participation has been between 70% and 81% since Week 10, so we could see a 25% bump in fantasy points if his usage increases 25% (to roughly 95% route participation).
Broncos at Panthers (10 – 23)
- The Broncos had 125 net passing yards (factoring in sacks), the fewest put up against the Panthers all season. Courtland Sutton is the only fantasy asset in this passing game that we can trust until Jerry Jeudy returns, further muddying the DEN target tree.
- Latavius Murray received bell cow treatment in Week 12, with Melvin Gordon waived and Chase Edmonds dealing with a high ankle sprain. Murray had 13 of 15 RB carries and ran 26 of the 33 RB routes. He’s an RB2-type based on usage moving forward, despite operating in a bottom-5 offense.
- D’Onta Foreman has been highly volatile as a starter, with solid fantasy production in four of six games as a starter.
D'Onta Foreman as a starter
4 games with 113+ rushing yards
2 games with under 25 rushing yards
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 28, 2022
- D.J. Moore thrived with Sam Darnold under center, catching four of six targets (35% share) for 103 yards and a TD, for 20.3 PPR points. Moore is a WR2 anytime Baker Mayfield is not under center for CAR. He’s averaging 13.7 PPR points in games started by P.J. Walker/Darnold, and just 8.7 fantasy points per game when Mayfield is under center.
Bears at Jets (10 – 31)
- David Montgomery is an every week high-end RB2 with Khalil Herbert on IR. He’s averaged 16 carries, 73 rushing yards, three catches, 44 receiving yards, and 17.7 fantasy points per game the past two weeks.
- Darnell Mooney likely misses the rest of the season with a high ankle sprain. I would not start any CHI WR in his absence next week, as Chase Claypool is yet to top 75% route participation or 7.1 fantasy points in any of his four games with Chicago.
- Zach Wilson has four passing TDs and five INTs on the season. Mike White threw for 315 yards in Week 12, with a perfect 3-0 TD-INT ratio. White’s first start of 2022 was good news for both Garrett Wilson (95 yards and two TDs on eight targets) and Elijah Moore (64 yards and a TD on two targets). Moore has strong upside rest of season if White remains the starter, as he only ran a route on 46% of White’s dropbacks in Week 12. His usage should increase in Week 13 after such a strong efficiency showing against CHI. I’d value Wilson in the WR2 range rest of season, with Moore as a borderline top-36 option rest of season, as well.
- Michael Carter sprained his ankle in this game. Zonovan Knight took over the majority of the work once Carter left, finishing with 14 carries and three targets for 103 total yards (13.3 PPR points). He’s a worthy player to target on waivers, as Carter likely misses multiple weeks, and the Jets’ offense with Mike White was really humming overall. Ty Johnson is also worth a waiver claim, as he tallied 62 rushing yards on just five carries, scoring on a 32 yard run. He also brought in one of two targets for 16 yards in the receiving game (14.8 PPR points). I’d expect a 60-40 committee in Knight’s favor until Carter returns.
Falcons at Commanders (13 – 19)
- Since returning from injury four weeks ago, Cordarrelle Patterson has not had more than 13 carries, 52 rushing yards, or 19 receiving yards in any contest. He’s an RB3 type unless he can take over more work in this backfield. Tyler Allgeier has averaged more yards per game over this stretch, on nearly as many touches. Think of this as a 1A/1B committee in a below average scoring offense.
- With Kyle Pitts on IR, Olamide Zaccheaus led ATL with eight targets (33% share), catching five for 91 yards. Drake London continued to disappoint in fantasy, with just four targets (17% share), catching two for 29 yards. I would leave all ATL pass-catchers on waivers.
- The Washington backfield remains difficult to predict week-to-week. After Antonio Gibson out-touched Brian Robinson 21-15 in Week 11, Robinson handled 18 carries to Gibson’s nine in Week 12, with each garnering three targets. Both are worth starting in fantasy each week, as Robinson (11.7 PPR/game) and Gibson (10.8 PPR/game) are each providing RB3 type value since J.D. McKissic’s injury.
- The Commanders rarely passed against ATL, so Terry McLaurin’s six targets represented a 27% share of the team’s offense. He should get back on track next week, as he has at least a 25% target share now in six straight.
Buccaneers at Browns (17 – 23)
- Rachaad White took 14 of 18 RB carries, and ran 35 of 36 RB routes. He totaled 64 rushing yards, and brought in all nine targets (21% share) for 45 yards. Despite not reaching the end zone, he put up 19.9 fantasy points, and will be a high-end RB1 in Week 13 should Leonard Fournette miss more time (hip).
- Amari Cooper has reached ten targets or 131 yards in seven of 11 games this season. He’s averaged 16.2 PPR points per game this season, and gets Deshaun Watson back in Week 13. Value Cooper as a low-end WR1 rest of season, with only Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jaylen Waddle as clearly better fantasy options going forward.
Ravens at Jaguars (27 – 28)
- Lamar Jackson’s 254 passing yards were his most since Week 2, and his 23 fantasy points were his highest mark since Week 3. Without Rashod Bateman, the Ravens’ passing game has underwhelmed, and even in Week 12, Lamar only completed 50% of his passes. It’s tough to trust anyone aside from Mark Andrews in fantasy among BAL receiving options.
- Gus Edwards returned from injury in Week 12, handling 16 of 19 RB carries. He will never have much pass game involvement, but he’s a top-30 fantasy option each week, as the grinder back in an efficient rushing offense. Given the Ravens’ pass game struggles, Edwards’ six red zone carries shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, as the Ravens will likely continue to lean heavily on the run game in scoring range.
- Trevor Lawrence’s 321 passing yards and 8.7 yards per attempt were both season-highs, along with his 24.94 fantasy points. Lawrence has at least 18 fantasy points in five of his past six games, putting him firmly in the low-end QB1 range.
- Travis Etienne left this game early with a foot injury, but it was not the same foot from last season. He is expected to return in Week 13 without restrictions.
- Zay Jones has at least eight targets in six of ten games this season, and has averaged 12.2 PPR points per game. His 14 targets, 11 catches, and 145 yards were all season-highs. Christian Kirk remains the JAX WR1 (15.6 PPR/game), as he extended his streak to six straight games with at least a 23% target share.
Raiders at Seahawks (40 – 34)
- Josh Jacobs had 33 carries for 229 yards and two scores, while catching six of seven passes for 74 yards, accumulating 48.3 PPR fantasy points. His 303 total yards were 75 more yards than any other RB has totaled in a game this season.
Games with 30+ Fantasy Points (RBs)
Josh Jacobs – 4
Austin Ekeler – 3
Tony Pollard – 2
11 Other RBs – 1
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 28, 2022
- Davante Adams came into this game with three straight performances of at least 13 targets and 126 receiving yards. While his seven-catch (11 target), 74-yard game was disappointing, he did still command a 31% target share. He remains the WR1 rest of season given the injury uncertainty surrounding Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller – both on IR.
- Geno Smith has now thrown multiple TD passes in five straight games, as well as in eight of his past nine. He has at least 19 fantasy points in seven of his past nine games, providing a stable floor and ceiling in fantasy – he’s a low-end QB1 rest of season.
- Kenneth Walker is averaging under three yards per carry over his past four games, with 51 or fewer rushing yards in three of those four. He has at least three catches and 20 receiving yards in three of four, along with five rushing TDs in this span, so his fantasy value has been relatively maintained. However, the lack of rushing efficiency will hurt his floor moving forward, as none of his past four opponents (NYG, ARI, TB, LV) have a top-12 run defense when using yards per carry allowed to RBs.
Chargers at Cardinals (25 – 24)
- Austin Ekeler had 15 targets (32% share), catching 11 for 60 yards and a TD. None of his targets, receptions, or receiving yards totals from Week 12 were season-highs, demonstrating how insane his receiving usage has been in 2022.
Austin Ekeler is on pace for 151 targets and 124 receptions
His 14.8 PPR/game from receiving would put him at WR13 (min 8 games played)
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 28, 2022
- Keenan Allen increased his route participation from 76% in Week 11 to 92% in Week 12. He is teed up to smash in a Week 13 matchup against the Raiders – the worst secondary in the NFL via Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
- James Conner took 25 of 27 RB carries and ran 29 of 33 RB routes in Week 12 against the Chargers, reaching 140 total yards. He’s a low-end RB1 the rest of the way, as a total bell cow in a fast-paced, high-volume offense that should score above league average rest of season.
- Marquise Brown returned from IR in Week 12, running a route on 100% of Kyler Murray’s dropbacks. He was targeted eight times (30% share), catching six for 46 yards. He was the only receiver to garner a red zone (two) or end zone (one) target against the Chargers, and is a high-end WR2 going forward. This consolidated passing offense should resemble Miami, where two WRs command at least 50% of the targets nearly every week.
Saints at 49ers (0 – 13)
- Chris Olave has at least a 22% share of the passing targets in nine of his past ten games, and can overcome poor offensive showings through volume. Even though the Saints did not score in Week 12, Olave brought in five of nine targets for 62 yards, leading the team with 11.2 fantasy points.
- Christian McCaffrey had a minor knee injury in Week 12, though his usage in San Francisco has been disappointing overall. McCaffrey had at least 22.8 fantasy points in his final three games with Carolina, but has only reached 18 fantasy points in one of five games with SF – a game where Deebo Samuel was inactive due to injury. He’s still a high-end RB1 moving forward, but he is not quite the fantasy difference-maker he was with Carolina.
Why Christian McCaffrey to SF is BAD news for fantasy
3 hours of research distilled into a quick 5 minute read
You won't consider my stance a hot take after reading
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 22, 2022
Rams at Chiefs (10 – 26)
- Bryce Perkins completed 13 of 23 attempts for only 100 passing yards, and Allen Robinson will miss the rest of 2022 with a foot injury. Without Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson, this Rams’ offense will likely be the league’s most inefficient the final six weeks, as their bottom-3 offensive line is the icing on the cake.
- Tyler Higbee ran a route on only 11 of 29 dropbacks from Perkins, and was not targeted. I would recommend avoiding all Rams players in fantasy football in Week 13 against Seattle.
- Skyy Moore now has six targets in back-to-back games, despite running fewer than 50% of the routes in each contest. His targets-per-route-run figure was the highest on the team in both Weeks 11 and 12. He is a great bench stash, as his playing time should increase going forward. Only Travis Kelce (eight) had more targets than Moore in Week 12.
Packers at Eagles (33 – 40)
- Aaron Rodgers left this game early due to injury, and Jordan Love completed six of nine passes for 113 yards (12.6 Y/A) and a TD in relief. Neither Rodgers nor Love is on the fantasy radar in 12-team leagues.
- Christian Watson has at least six targets and 21 fantasy points in three straight games, with six TDs and four end zone targets in that span. The absurd TD rate will come back to Earth, but the underlying usage is still that of a top-30 weekly option, as he should see six to eight downfield targets most weeks.
- Jalen Hurts had more rushing yards (157) than passing yards (153) in Week 12, and has at least 20 fantasy points in nine of 11 games. His floor is 16.9 fantasy points this year, and he is the clear QB2 behind Josh Allen for the rest of 2022.
- Miles Sanders had a season-high 143 rushing yards, scoring twice. He has been quite predictable this season, excelling in easier matchups while floundering against the top run defenses. Week 13 against the Titans (3.8 YPC allowed to RBs) is a very difficult matchup, and he is nothing more than a low-end RB2 this upcoming week, despite his outstanding Week 12 performance.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these fantasy takeaways from Week 12. Stay tuned for my rankings, dropping Tuesday afternoon on The 33rd Team site.