Analysis

12/13/22

22 min read

33 Fantasy Football Takeaways From NFL Week 14

By Josh Larky

fantasy takeaways from week 14

Below, you’ll find (at least) 33 fantasy football takeaways from NFL Week 14. Advanced usage data is examined each week because usage is a much better indicator of future fantasy points than current fantasy points.

Essentially, NFL teams never look at fantasy points, so we shouldn’t focus too much attention on them either if we want to predict what teams will do moving forward.

Raiders at Rams (16 - 17)

  • Derek Carr reminded us in Week 14 why he’s a difficult streamer to trust. Even though he averaged a healthy 6.9 yards per attempt, he only threw 20 passes, compared to 27 Josh Jacobs' carries. Carr didn’t score a touchdown and was picked off twice against the Rams, totaling just 4.6 fantasy points, which is his second-lowest total of the season. His lack of mobility, combined with several head-scratching offensive game plans, will cap his weekly floor.
  • Jacobs has 86 carries and 10 receptions over the last two and a half weeks. He’s averaged 30.2 PPR points per game over this three-game stretch and now gets extended rest after playing on Thursday Night. He continues to look like a top-3 running back play rest of the season with his outrageous workload.
  • Baker Mayfield came into this game with less than 48 hours to learn the Rams' playbook. He performed more than admirably, completing 22 of 35 passes (63%) for 230 yards and a touchdown. He carried four times for 10 yards, totaling 14 fantasy points. While this was unexpected and exciting, Mayfield has no weaponry of note (Cam Akers, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tyler Higbee, and a bottom-five offensive line) and remains out of the streaming conversation moving forward.
  • Cam Akers only out-snapped Kyren Williams 25-18, but he out-carried him 12-3, and ran 10 routes to Williams’ nine. Akers remains a fringe RB3 due to volume alone, while Williams can stay on most waiver wires. There’s limited upside in this Rams offense, and I’d rather stash backups on good offenses with RB1 upside like Alexander Mattison and Joshua Kelley than hold Williams on my bench.
  • All Rams wide receivers should remain on waivers, as the pecking order could shift multiple times in the next few weeks, and none are talented enough for me to have an interest. Mayfield couldn’t sustain any WR fantasy production in Carolina, and while Sean McVay is a well above-average play-caller for fantasy purposes, the wide receiver room is arguably the NFL’s worst.

Vikings at Lions (23 - 34)

  • Kirk Cousins threw for a season-high 425 passing yards and two touchdowns, finishing with 25 fantasy points for the second time this season. It’s just his fourth time finishing with more than 20 fantasy points on the season, and he remains little more than a streaming option in plus matchups. In five of his 13 games this season, he’s finished with fewer than 15 fantasy points.
  • Dalvin Cook has struggled on the ground, making him much more touchdown-dependent for fantasy purposes. His yards per carry (YPC) the past six weeks tell a story of an offensive line that’s struggled mightily in the trenches depending on the matchup (2.8, 8.5, 6.6, 1.9, 4.3, 1.5). He’s an every-week top-12 option due to the workload, but he’s demonstrated increased volatility this season.
  • Justin Jefferson had a season-high 223 receiving yards, corralling 11 of 15 targets, for 33.3 fantasy points. He’s gone over 100 yards in 62% of his games this season, making him a premier DFS option regardless of price on DraftKings, where you get the three-point bonus for 100-yard games.
  • Jared Goff had 330 yards and three touchdowns for 26.1 fantasy points. Seven of the past eight quarterbacks to face the Vikings have topped 300 passing yards, and Minnesota is one of the best streaming matchups for the rest of the season for quarterbacks.
  • After taking over the backfield in Week 13, D’Andre Swift’s head-scratching usage continued. He handled just six of 26 running back carries. While he led the team with 17 routes, he caught three of his four targets for only 18 yards. In what was a plus matchup on paper, his 6.9 fantasy points were his lowest output of the season. I’d still prefer him to Jamaal Williams for the rest of the season, as Williams isn’t nearly as explosive nor involved much as a pass-catcher. I’d rank Swift as an RB2 rest of the season (for upside), with Williams as a touchdown-dependent RB3 type.
  • After Jameson Williams was targeted once on two routes in Week 13, his role really didn’t improve much despite scoring 11.1 fantasy points. He was targeted twice on six routes and caught one pass for a 41-yard touchdown. Williams is still at least one more week away from being a viable fantasy starter.

Ravens at Steelers (16 - 14)

  • Tyler Huntley left this game early due to injury, and Anthony Brown was a fantasy killer. Brown completed three of six passes for only 16 yards and ran three times for -5 yards. I’m not interested in any Ravens pass-catchers in fantasy outside Mark Andrews. Though Andrews himself may no longer be a priority start at TE after catching two of six targets for 17 yards.
  • J.K. Dobbins returned from injured reserve in Week 14 and took over this backfield. He carried 15 times to Gus Edwards’ 13, and no other RB had more than one carry in this game. Dobbins totaled 120 rushing yards and a touchdown but wasn’t targeted on any of his eight routes. Dobbins is a low-end RB2 with Brown under center, and Edwards can be a desperation flex play.
  • If your team is relatively strong at running back, I would rather stash someone like Williams than Edwards on the bench, given Edwards should have quarterback problems the rest of the season and doesn't contribute in the passing game.
  • Kenny Pickett was concussed after one pass attempt, and Mitch Trubisky came in for the entire game. He heavily targeted Diontae Johnson (26% target share). Johnson's six catches and 82 yards for 14.2 PPR points were his most since Week 3.
  • Pat Freiermuth is the only consistent fantasy pass-catcher in Pittsburgh. He has at least 7.6 fantasy points in nine of 12 games this season, which is valuable given the state of tight ends in fantasy.

Browns at Bengals (10 - 23)

  • Deshaun Watson had another rough game, completing 62% of his passes at only 6.6 yards per attempt. He did run six times for 33 yards and finished with 17.3 fantasy points. He’s now a top-12 option rest of the season. Though it’s still unclear if he can return to the elite fantasy levels he was at pre-suspension.
  • Nick Chubb had strong pass game usage in Week 14, running 23 routes to Kareem Hunt’s 16. Chubb caught all three targets for 20 yards. That buoyed his 34-yard rushing performance, allowing him to finish with 8.4 fantasy points.
  • Amari Cooper finished third in targets, and it’s likely due to the hip injury he suffered during Thursday’s practice. I still expect him to out-target Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku most weeks, as he had a 43% target share in Watson’s first start in Week 13. Their Week 14 stats appear below.
Player Routes Targets Rec Yards Air Yards PPR
Amari Cooper 43 7 2 42 65 6.2
Donovan Peoples-Jones 48 12 8 114 178 19.4
David Njoku 43 9 7 59 32 18.7
  • Both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd suffered injuries in this game, and Joe Burrow struggled as a result, completing only 55% of his passes for 239 yards, two touchdowns and 17.6 fantasy points.
  • Ja’Marr Chase erupted without any target competition (Hayden Hurst was also out), commanding 47% of the team’s targets and catching 10 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown (28.5 PPR points). I wouldn’t examine any Bengals wide receiver options after Higgins and Boyd, for fantasy purposes on the waiver wire.
  • Joe Mixon took 14 of 19 RB carries, but ran fewer routes than Samaje Perine (16-19), and was also out-targeted by him (2-5). Mixon will need to demonstrate he can handle some third-down work in Week 15 if he wants to be an every-week RB1. 14 carries (one red zone) and two targets is nothing more than low-end RB2 usage.

Jets at Bills (12 - 20)

  • Mike White threw for 268 scoreless yards in a bad-weather game against Buffalo. White dropped back 47 times, which is a sign he’s a boon for all Jets wide receivers and their target floors.
  • As predicted, Zonovan Knight handled early down work, while Michael Carter was in for most passing downs. No other Jets running back played a snap in Week 14. Knight is an RB2 for the rest of the season, while Carter is just a desperation flex. Their Week 14 usage is documented below.
Player Snaps Carries (RZ) Routes Targets Total Yards PPR
Zonovan Knight 34 17 (2) 15 2 77 15.7
Michael Carter 37 5 (0) 28 6 20 5
  • Elijah Moore ran 47 routes, finishing with a team-high 10 targets (22.7% share). Moore is a WR3 going forward, while Garrett Wilson is a high-end WR2. This duo should have high floors most weeks with White airing it out. In games started by Joe Flacco or White, the Jets have averaged a Chiefs-Esque 41 pass attempts per game.
  • Josh Allen has thrown for just 205 passing yards per game since his elbow injury four weeks ago. He’s still averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game during this stretch, but he’s not an elite fantasy option without the pass-game upside. Think of him as a tier below Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the final three weeks of the fantasy season.
  • Devin Singletary was the lead back in Week 14 even after James Cook out-touched and out-played him in Week 13. Singletary had eight carries to Cook’s four and ran 14 routes to Cook’s 13. I don’t like either option more than a back-end RB2 any given week if this trend of up-and-down usage continues, as no teams are on bye in Weeks 15-17. You likely have better options than these two if you're in the fantasy playoffs.
  • I’ve been outspoken in favor of Gabriel Davis’ usage in recent weeks since his target shares was increased. However, if we zoom out, he only has one game with 12 fantasy points in his past seven contests. I’m dropping him down to mid-range WR3 territory until he demonstrates he can convert his targets to fantasy points, and Allen’s passing performances improve.

Texans at Cowboys (23 - 27)

  • Dameon Pierce left this game with an ankle injury. All things considered, it was his best performance of the season. He ran 22 times for 78 yards against an elite Cowboys defense. He’s still a matchup-dependent fantasy starter when healthy, but it was good for his floor to see him finally put up a decent rushing stat line and find the end zone against a strong run defense.
  • I don’t expect Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks to be out long-term with injuries, so I wouldn’t read too much into the WR stat lines from Week 14. However, Chris Moore commanding a 46% target share (11 targets, ten catches, 124 yards) deserves recognition. If Cooks and Collins both miss Week 15, Moore slots in as a WR3 type against a favorable matchup with Chiefs.
  • Dalton Schultz is once again a true fantasy difference-maker, now that he’s healthy. He has at least 13 fantasy points in four of his past six games, averaging 6.7 targets (1.8 red zone, 1.2 end zone), 4.5 receptions, 50 yards, 58 air yards and 12.5 fantasy points per game.

Eagles at Giants (48 - 22)

  • Miles Sanders ate against the Giants’ porous run defense, with 144 yards on 17 carries and scored twice. His 28.5 fantasy points marked his third-highest total of the season. He is a high-end RB2 in favorable matchups, and a high-end RB3 in tough matchups, given he’s averaging only 6.5 receiving yards per game. He’s fully reliant on rushing efficiency and touchdowns.
  • Saquon Barkley’s neck soreness, among other injuries, affected the box score. He only took nine of 17 RB carries and ran just seven routes (Matt Breida ran 17 and Gary Brightwell ran 16). Barkley let fantasy managers down mightily, and I’ll be exercising caution with him against a ferocious Washington front seven in Week 15. Barkley likely lands in the RB20 range for me next week (my fantasy rankings drop Tuesday afternoons around 5:00 p.m. EST).

Jaguars at Titans (36 - 22)

  • Trevor Lawrence was surgical against the Titans, completing 71.4% of passes for 368 yards. He had three touchdowns and no interceptions and ran three times for seven yards and another score. He has difficult matchups against the Cowboys and Jets next but should be a fringe top-12 option given his improvements made in year two. Six of his past eight games have resulted in at least 18 fantasy points.
  • Travis Etienne’s lack of pass-game involvement is puzzling, as he was not targeted on 25 routes. The Titans had been allowing the most running back targets in the NFL heading into this game, so Etienne’s donut in the receiving game was frustrating to see. He’s averaged just 2.6 targets and 16.5 receiving yards per game this season. For context, 35 different running backs are averaging more targets per game than Etienne this. He’s only an RB2 against the Cowboys and Jets the next two games before getting a smash matchup with Houston in Week 17.
  • The Titans have struggled against outside wide receivers this year, and Zay Jones commanded 29% of the team’s targets, catching eight for 77 yards and a score. He’s the sneakiest every-week fantasy starter at WR since he’s averaging 12.3 PPR points per game.
  • Derrick Henry continues to own Jacksonville. He had 121 yards on 17 carries, along with three catches for 34 yards. He found the end zone and ended with 24.5 fantasy points. Henry should have more than 20 fantasy points in the next two games against the Chargers and Houston before facing a tough Dallas front in the fantasy championship round (Week 17).
  • In 12-team leagues, Chigoziem Okonkwo is worth a roster spot at tight end. He’s increased his offensive involvement in recent weeks, and now has at least five targets and 35 yards in three straight games.
  • He caught all six targets for 45 yards and a touchdown in Week 14. The rookie ran a 4.52 40-time at the combine, which was the best in the 2022 tight end class. He is the only tight end, aside from Greg Dulcich, capable of making an impact down the stretch while being readily available on waiver wires.

Chiefs at Broncos (34 - 28)

  • Heading into Week 14, Carr had 307 passing yards against the Broncos, while no other quarterback had more than 255 yards. Mahomes is truly matchup-proof, and he dictates how defenses need to play (not the other way around). Mahomes completed 67% of his passes at 8.4 yards per attempt, finishing with 352 passing yards and 22.8 fantasy points. That's the most by any quarterback against Denver this season.
  • Isiah Pacheco had the spotlight stolen by Jerick McKinnon, who caught seven of nine targets for 112 yards and two scores. McKinnon out-snapped Pacheco and also took the team’s lone red zone carry. Pacheco will be the preferred fantasy option against Houston’s dreadful run defense next week, but McKinnon should remain a thorn in the rookie’s side by taking the vast majority of passing work each week.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster put up a strong performance with 11 targets (26% share) while catching nine passes for 74 yards and a touchdown. His average target depth of only 5.6 yards kept him from having a bigger day overall. Smith-Schuster still only has five games (of 12) with a target share of 20% or higher, but being on the Chiefs helps him maintain low-end WR2 fantasy value.
  • Prior to Russell Wilson leaving with a concussion, he was having his best fantasy day of the season. Wilson completed 64% of his passes for 247 yards, three touchdowns and just one pick. He also ran four times for 57 yards, totaling 26.6 fantasy points.
  • Wilson’s three touchdown passes all went to Jerry Jeudy, who ate in the absence of Courtland Sutton. Jeudy’s nine targets were only a 21% target share, but he caught eight for 73 yards and finished with 33.3 PPR points.
  • Jeudy will be a WR2 anytime Sutton is out. Stay tuned though for whether or not Brett Rypien draws the start with Wilson in concussion protocol in Week 15.
  • Dulcich had another game with strong usage in Sutton’s absence, as he was targeted eight times. He only came down with three catches for 42 yards, but his 85 air yards were encouraging. Dulcich remains one of the precious few tight ends capable of working down the field. He’s a mid-range TE1 given the target volume/depth and his natural speed.
  • Latavius Murray lost his stronghold on the Broncos backfield in Week 14. Mike Boone was carted off with an ankle injury, but we now have Marlon Mack for Murray enthusiasts to worry about. Mack only handled three carries to Murray’s eight, but Mack turned one of his two receptions into a long touchdown.
  • Murray totaled 31 yards on eight carries and five targets, while Mack turned three carries and three targets into 77 yards and a touchdown. With Boone out, I’d expect Mack to force some type of split since Murray does not have bell-cow job security in the slightest.

Panthers at Seahawks (30 - 24)

  • D’Onta Foreman has at least 21 carries in four of his past six games. He’s still near zero in the passing game, but don’t let his 8.5 fantasy points from Week 14 discourage you. Foreman had five red zone and three goal-line carries against Seattle. He’ll be inefficient with his fantasy points most weeks, but he has a consistent enough workload you can start him as an RB2 outside of difficult matchups.
  • This was a strange game with the final score not fully reflecting how lopsided it was. D.J. Moore failed to haul in any of his three targets, but that actually tied for the team lead because Sam Darnold only attempted 24 passes.
  • Geno Smith now has five straight games with at least 264 passing yards, multiple touchdowns and more than 21 fantasy points. He’s an every-week QB1 type.
  • Kenneth Walker and/or DeeJay Dallas should return from injury in Week 15. Travis Homer was an absolute bell cow but didn’t get there in fantasy. He handled nine of 10 carries and ran 26 of 29 RB routes while catching two of three targets. He totaled 34 yards and 5.4 fantasy points, but it’s good to know he’s clearly ahead of Tony Jones should Walker and Dallas both miss Week 15. Homer would be a high-end RB3 against the 49ers on Thursday night if neither can go.

Buccaneers at 49ers (7 - 35)

  • Tampa Bay's backfield was a near-even committee for fantasy football purposes with Leonard Fournette handling more pass-down work, and Rachaad White taking the vast majority of the carries. Both are RB2/RB3 borderline types each week if they continue to split work in this fashion. Tom Brady's infatuation with the check down when under pressure keeps their value afloat. Their Week 14 usage stats are shown below.
Player Snaps Carries (RZ) Routes Targets Total Yards PPR
Rachaad White 39 13 (1) 21 5 77 12.7
Leonard Fournette 36 4 28 7 46 10.6
  • Brock Purdy completed 76% of his passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns while running another one in for a touchdown at the goal line. He totaled 21.7 fantasy points, though that was entirely in the first half. He’s a streamer once again in Week 15 against the Seahawks.
  • Deebo Samuel left with a significant injury, and Christian McCaffrey was the clear beneficiary. McCaffrey is the focal point of this offense that now boasts a third-string quarterback and a WR core headlined by Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings. McCaffrey carried 14 times for 119 yards, and caught two of three passes for 34 yards. He scored through the air and on the ground.
  • McCaffrey likely comes in as my RB1 overall for Week 15. He gets a Seahawks team that invites check downs with their style of defense.
  • Jordan Mason is a priority fantasy stash, as he took on the Elijah Mitchell role. He finished with 11 carries for 56 yards. Should anything happen to McCaffrey, Mason likely gets 20 carries each week, along with dump-offs from Purdy.

Dolphins at Chargers (17 - 23)

  • Tua Tagovailoa has now struggled in back-to-back weeks thanks to the 49ers and Chargers utilizing press coverage to disrupt Tagovailoa's timing with his receivers. In Week 14, Tagovailoa completed just 36% of his passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. He was purely a game manager against the Bills in Week 3, and they play again in Week 15.
  • I’d exercise caution with Tagovailoa this week, as we need to see how Mike McDaniel changes the offense to combat the increased press coverage. He is nothing more than a fringe top-12 option this week.
  • Jeff Wilson was the lead back in this one before exiting early with an injury. We should once again see Raheem Mostert as a bell cow in Week 15 against the Bills. The stash now becomes Salvon Ahmed, who was the only other running back to get touches once Wilson went down.
  • Justin Herbert completed 77% of his passes for 367 yards, putting on a clinic against Miami’s defense. Herbert has another favorable matchup in Week 15, against a Titans pass defense that was thoroughly embarrassed by Trevor Lawrence this past week. Herbert is a high-end QB1 this next week, and clearly benefitted by having Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer and Austin Ekeler healthy together for a full game - the first time all season.
  • Kelley is a priority handcuff in fantasy football, as he played 31 snaps to Ekeler’s 46, carrying four times. He also ran 19 routes to Ekeler’s 22. Should anything happen to Ekeler, Kelley likely slots in as a volume-based RB1 - an all-purpose back in a great offense.
  • Williams ran a route on 73% of Herbert’s dropbacks in his return from injury, catching all six targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. The Titans have struggled against perimeter WRs this year, and Williams is an elite start in Week 15.
  • Allen’s 14 targets (29% share) were encouraging, and so were his 12 receptions for 92 yards. Four of his targets were in the red zone (one end zone), but his 3.8 yard average target depth is mostly suited for PPR leagues. He’s a great start each week, but his weekly upside in half-PPR and standard leagues will be lower than Mike Williams, given how close to the line of scrimmage he’s operating.
  • Gerald Everett had a sneaky good day. He brought in five of his eight targets (17% share) for 28 yards. 7.8 PPR points don’t do his day justice though because he was targeted three times in the red zone (once in the end zone). Everett remains one of the few fantasy difference-makers at TE.

Patriots at Cardinals (27 – 13)

  • Rhamondre Stevenson exited this game with an ankle injury. In his place, Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong split the work. Both are savvy pickups on the waiver wire, though I’d lean slightly toward Harris. Harris out-snapped (28-18), out-carried (eight to five) and ran more routes (14 to eight) than Strong. However, Strong is still a quality pickup, as he was far more efficient, finishing with an edge in rushing yards (70-26), targets (two to zero) and receiving yardage (20 to zero). The Raiders are a decent matchup in Week 15, and there’s potential for both RBs to finish with double-digit fantasy points without Stevenson.
  • Kyler Murray tore his ACL on the third play of the game, and this Cardinals offense loses a lot of fantasy excitement with Colt McCoy under center.
  • The only Cardinals' player who isn’t severely downgraded in fantasy is DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins was targeted 11 times (27% share), and caught seven passes for 79 yards. He’s a low-end WR1 type with McCoy, while Marquise Brown probably won’t be anything more than a boom-bust WR3.
  • Brown and McCoy were rarely on the same page on Monday, and Brown only brought in four of his eight targets for 34 yards. Hopkins and Brown were each targeted twice in the end zone, so while this offense won’t score many points, we can count on Hopkins/Brown as the most likely receivers to get in the box for Arizona.
  • Trey McBride may be interesting with McCoy under center, as he caught three of six targets (15% share) for 28 yards. His 8.3 average depth of target was much higher than usual. Previously, he had exceeded 12 air yards or a target depth above five yards in any game.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these fantasy takeaways from Week 14. Stay tuned for my rankings, dropping Tuesday afternoon on The 33rd Team site.

WATCH: Week 15 Waiver Wire Advice

 

Tags: 2022 NFL Week 14, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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