Analysis
11/15/22
15 min read
33 Fantasy Football Takeaways From NFL Week 10
Below, you'll find (at least) 33 fantasy takeaways from Week 10. Advanced usage data is examined each week, as usage is a much better indicator of future fantasy points than current fantasy points.
Essentially, NFL teams never look at fantasy points, so we shouldn’t focus too much attention on them either if we want to predict what teams will do moving forward.
Falcons at Panthers (15 - 25)
- It sounds crazy, but I'd try to trade for Kyle Pitts in fantasy. Since Week 3, Pitts has one more target per game, nine more yards per game, and 40 more air yards per game than Drake London. Pitts has re-emerged as the alpha in this passing attack after London's hot start to the season. In Week 10, Pitts led the team with 135 air yards and eight targets, yet nearly every target was deemed off-target in that contest. Pitts is a blazing-fast TE getting six targets and 95 air yards per game over the past two months and is practically free in redraft.
- Tyler Allgeier surprisingly led ATL RBs in snaps (29), carries (eight), routes (14), and targets (three). Cordarrelle Patterson touched the ball just six times and received neither of the two red zone carries. After an encouraging return from injury in Week 10, this was a big shock. Fortunately, Patterson faces a Bears run defense that cannot stop anyone, so a better game is likely in store in Week 11 - assuming we don't get word that there's been a shift in the depth chart.
- D'Onta Foreman was a total workhorse in Week 10, despite Chuba Hubbard returning to game action. Their Week 10 stats are shown below.
| Player | Snaps | Carries (RZ) | Routes | Targets | Total Yards | PPR |
| D'Onta Foreman | 43 | 31 (4) | 10 | 1 | 130 | 19 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 1.4 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 3.2 |
Seahawks at Buccaneers (16 - 21)
- Kenneth Walker had no success on the ground against TB, rushing for only 17 yards on ten carries. However, he salvaged his fantasy day with a superb receiving performance. After totaling no more than three catches for 20 yards through the air prior to Week 10, Walker brought in six of eight targets for 55 yards. Walker ran 29 routes to Travis Homer's six, and Walker had all eight RB targets. He's a true every-down back on an above-average offense, as the only missing piece prior to this week had been dominance in the receiving game.
- Rachaad White received the start in this game and tallied 105 rushing yards on 22 carries. Leonard Fournette also left this game early due to injury, though TB has a Week 11 bye for him to potentially recover. White was an elite receiving back in college, so if TB is willing to trust him with 20+ carries in a week, he has RB1 overall upside any given week that Fournette misses due to injury.
Lions at Bears (31 - 30)
- Despite practicing in full on Friday of last week, D'Andre Swift is clearly not fully healthy. Swift was out-gained by Justin Jackson and only had one more touch than Jackson in Week 10. Jamaal Williams had nearly three times as many carries, too. Swift is nothing more than a flex play until his workload increases, as six carries and three targets can only get stretched so far in fantasy football.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least nine targets in every healthy game this season. In Week 10, he commanded 11 targets (44% share), bringing in ten for 119 yards. One of those targets came in the red zone, and he was also given a handoff in the red zone this past week, too. Amon-Ra remains a Top-10 weekly option at WR.
- Justin Fields now has back-to-back games with at least 40 fantasy points and 147 rushing yards. He's a high-end QB1 moving forward, especially considering Chase Claypool is still not a part of this passing offense yet. Claypool was targeted twice but only ran seven routes, the sixth most among Chicago WRs/TEs.
- Cole Kmet has now scored at least one TD in each of the past three games (five TDs overall in this span). Kmet, after maxing out at four targets through Week 8, now has back-to-back games with at least six targets. Kmet had two red zone (one end zone) targets through Week 7, before totaling five red zone (three end zone) targets over his past three games. He's a Top-12 TE moving forward after back-to-back games with at least a 22% target share.
Browns at Dolphins (17 - 39)
- Donovan Peoples-Jones now has at least 50 receiving yards and nine fantasy points in each of his past six games. He's had at least a 20% targets share in five of his past six games, too.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown three TDs in three straight games. He's completed at least 70% of his passes in each of those games as well. I'd only want Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson over Tua rest of the season.
- After Jeff Wilson out-produced Raheem Mostert in Week 9, he was rewarded with a workhorse role in Week 10. Wilson had 17 carries to Mostert's eight, and 119 rushing yards to Mostert's 65. Wilson also ran 17 routes to Mostert's nine and was targeted five times to Mostert's four. Wilson is a high-end RB2 going forward as the starting RB in one of the NFL's highest-scoring offenses.
Broncos at Titans (10 - 17)
- Chase Edmonds was minimally involved in his Broncos debut, carrying twice and getting targeted twice on seven routes. Latavius Murray received more carries, while Melvin Gordon handled the pass-catching work. This remains a difficult committee for fantasy purposes, where Murray and Gordon are nothing more than low-end RB3 types.
- Jerry Jeudy injured his ankle at the start of this contest, running just one route. Kendall Hinton stepped up in relief, running 47 routes and bringing in four of five targets for 62 yards. Should Jeudy miss extended time, Hinton appears like the next man up, but would likely be nothing more than a WR5 type in fantasy.
- Pick up Treylon Burks off waivers, not Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Westbrook-Ikhine had three targets for zero catches over his three games prior to his Week 10 explosion (eight targets, five catches, 119 yards, and two TDs). Treylon Burks, in his first game back from IR, had six targets (17% share, one in the red zone), catching three for 24 yards. Burks is the high-upside rookie, while Westbrook-Ikhine is a journeyman coming off a career-best performance.
Vikings at Bills (33 - 30)
- TJ Hockenson has at least nine targets and 11.5 PPR points in both games as a Viking. He has four red zone targets (one end zone) during this stretch and is arguably the third-best fantasy TE rest of the season behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
- Gabe Davis had a season-high nine targets (22% share), and now has reached a 22% target share in two of his past three games. He has at least 121 air yards in back-to-back contests, and Josh Allen made it through Week 10 relatively healthy. Assuming Allen's elbow holds up, Davis will remain a boom/bust WR2 each week.
- After three goal-line carries all season, Devin Singletary had three goal-line carries in Week 10, scoring twice. Nyheim Hines has yet to eat into Singletary's pass-game load, as he's run seven total routes (two targets) in two games as a Buffalo Bill.
Texans at Giants (16 - 24)
- It's officially time to panic on Brandin Cooks. Since Week 4, Nico Collins averaged 57 yards per game (to Cooks' 47), and 11 PPR points to Cooks' 10.6. Cooks joins Collins as nothing more than a flex option moving forward, as they're both seeing six targets per game in one of the NFL's worst passing offenses.
- Saquon Barkley had 35 carries for 152 yards in Week 10, his fourth straight game with at least 20 carries. He's had at least 11 fantasy points in every game and has over 100 total yards in six of nine contests.
Jaguars at Chiefs (17 - 27)
- Christian Kirk is quietly pacing for over 1,150 receiving yards and 12 TDs. He's averaging 16 fantasy points per game and has a target share of at least 20% in nine of ten games. He's a high-end WR2 each week.
- It's now a two-RB committee in KC, as Clyde Edwards-Helaire received no carries and two targets (no receptions) on four snaps. Isiah Pacheco handled 16 of 18 RB carries in this game and ran 15 routes to Jerick McKinnon's 18. While McKinnon had eight targets, catching six for 56 yards, Pacheco likely converts more of his routes to targets moving forward, as he wasn't targeted on any of his 15 routes. If this usage continues, CEH is droppable, Pacheco is an RB2/RB3 type each week, and McKinnon is an RB3/flex play.
- After two targets on six routes in Week 9, Kadarius Toney brought in four of five targets for 57 yards and a TD in Week 10, while also rushing two times for 33 yards. Toney only ran a route on 43% of Patrick Mahomes' dropbacks and should be a WR2 type when fully acclimated to the offense.
Saints at Steelers (10 - 20)
- NO TE Juwan Johnson has at least 12 fantasy points in three of his past four games. His 25% target share in Week 10 was his first time above 20% in 2022.
- Jaylen Warren now has double-digit PPR points in three of his past five games. Warren is averaging 24 receiving yards per game since Week 5, while Najee Harris only has 13 receiving yards per game. Najee Harris can officially be benched if you're projected to lose your fantasy matchup by 15+ points, as the ceiling isn't there - bad offensive line, limited pass-catching, lack of explosiveness, and weak overall offense.
Colts at Raiders (25 - 20)
- Jonathan Taylor looked electric in his return, rushing for 147 yards on 22 carries. Taylor was the only RB to run a route in this game, as neither Jordan Wilkins nor Zack Moss was utilized at all in the passing game. He's back to bell-cow status in a competent enough offense, assuming Matt Ryan continues to start.
- Parris Campbell now has at least nine targets and 18 fantasy points in each of Matt Ryan's past three starts. I'm still skeptical given his shaky track record, but he's at least adding off waivers if you're in need of WR help. The Colts' win against the Raiders likely gives Matt Ryan at least one or two more starts before they consider returning to Sam Ehlinger.
- The Raiders' target tree without Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller was extremely consolidated, as expected. Davante Adams had 14 targets (37% share), Mack Hollins had six (16% share), and no other WR had more than a 5% target share. Foster Moreau only had four targets, but his usage near the end zone was encouraging, as he had two of the team's three end zone targets. Even though Mack Hollins disappointed in fantasy with 3.8 PPR points, the usage was encouraging, as he had a team-high 140 air yards on his six targets. He's worth a spot start again in Week 11 against Denver.
Cardinals at Rams (27 - 17)
- James Conner was a super bell cow, taking 62 snaps, handling 21 of 22 RB carries and running 21 of 24 RB routes. Eno Benjamin was released following this game, and Keaontay Ingram is a priority waiver add with Darrel Williams on IR.
- Colt McCoy started in place of the injured Kyler Murray, and 77% of his passes were directed toward DeAndre Hopkins (14 targets) and Rondale Moore (13 targets).
- Zach Ertz suffered a season-ending injury, and rookie Trey McBride assumed Ertz's every down role, running 32 routes to third-string TE Stephen Anderson's seven. McBride only had one target, but the speedy rookie had over 1,000 yards last year as a college senior. His resume hints at serious target-earning potential, and with the state of the TE position, I'd consider up to a 15% FAAB bid for those in need of a home run swing at TE this week.
- Cooper Kupp suffered a high ankle sprain in this contest. While I'd expect Allen Robinson to see more target volume in his absence, Tyler Higbee and Ben Skowronek operate much closer to the line of scrimmage, and I'd expect the two of them to be the biggest beneficiaries from Kupp's ankle injury.
Cowboys at Packers (28 - 31)
- Dak Prescott is now the only QB this season to have more than 20 fantasy points against Green Bay. 150 of his 265 passing yards (57%) went to CeeDee Lamb, who brought in 11 of 15 targets for 150 yards and a pair of scores. Dalton Schultz chipped in eight targets (19% share), while Michael Gallup commanded seven targets (16% share). Gallup can officially be dropped at this point, as he's behind both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz in the pecking order, on a team that wants to run Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard a decent amount every game. There have also been rumblings about Odell Beckham joining Dallas, which would likely be the nail in the coffin of Gallup's fantasy potential. Gallup has yet to reach 50 receiving yards or 11 fantasy points through six games.
- This was the Christian Watson breakout game, as he had eight targets (42% share), catching four for 107 yards and three TDs. Watson will probably be hard to trust each week moving forward, but this offense is starved for pass-catching playmakers. The Packers play the Titans on Thursday night, and their secondary has struggled all season. Even if you're not a believer in Watson for the rest of the season, he's in a great spot for Week 11 and should be started in all moderately deep formats.
Chargers at 49ers (16 - 22)
- DeAndre Carter is a waiver wire trap, after tallying 16.4 PPR points in Week 10 against the 49ers. He's a desperation flex play based on usage, as he still has not hit a 15% target share in any game this season. There will always be TD upside in the Chargers' offense, but his profile is not the type to spend any FAAB on during waivers, and there will likely be an enthusiastic manager in most leagues after back-to-back performances of double-digit fantasy points.
- Christian McCaffrey was out-touched and out-gained by Elijah Mitchell in Mitchell's return from IR. CMC still has the much better fantasy role as the pass-catching back, but Mitchell gobbled up more red zone/goal line carries than I'd be comfortable with were CMC on my fantasy team. Their Week 10 usage stats are below.
| Player | Snaps | Carries (RZ/GL) | Routes | Targets | Total Yards | PPR |
| Christian McCaffrey | 45 | 14 (4/4) | 22 | 6 | 77 | 17.7 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 25 | 18 (7/2) | 6 | 2 | 88 | 9.8 |
Commanders at Eagles (32 - 21)
- Taylor Heinicke continues to feed Terry McLaurin, who has now out-targeted Curtis Samuel in all three Heinicke starts. McLaurin is averaging 99 receiving yards per game with Heinicke, after just 63 yards per game with Carson Wentz.
- While JD McKissic remained OUT with a neck injury, both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson were able to capitalize on a surprisingly run-friendly game script. Assuming McKissic misses Week 11, both backs are in for big days against the Texans' bottom-3 run defense. Week 10 usage stats are below.
| Player | Snaps | Carries (RZ/GL) | Routes | Targets | Total Yards | PPR |
| Brian Robinson | 42 | 26 (4/2) | 8 | 0 | 86 | 14.6 |
| Antonio Gibson | 39 | 14 (5/2) | 18 | 3 | 58 | 14.8 |
- Miles Sanders had limited usage as the Commanders held a sizable lead for much of this game. However, I wouldn't panic, as Sanders still took 12 of 14 RB carries (86%) and ran the most routes (15 to Kenneth Gainwell's 11). Sanders has another tough test in Week 11 against a Colts defense allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to opposing backs, before getting the run funnel Packers defense in Week 12.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these 33 (slightly more to be perfectly transparent) fantasy takeaways from Week 10.
WATCH MORE: Week 10 Fantasy Recap
