Betting

2/23/23

9 min read

2023 Rookie Running Back Best Ball Primer

2023 rookie wide receiver primer

This rookie running back primer will help you with your rookie research and any upcoming Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts.

Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds walk you through the top-17 RBs based on Underdog ADP (average draft position). Larky primarily focuses on ADP game theory and its statistical profile, while Reynolds focuses more on their statistical profile and player/style comps.

Once you've read through this rookie running back primer, make sure you're using our free top-250 Underdog Fantasy best ball rankings, complete with dozens of player write-ups. Make sure to consult our rookie wide receiver primer, too.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Rookie RB Expectations

The below table is the average outcome (50th percentile) for rookie RBs from 2016 onward, separated by NFL Draft round. You’ll notice none of these numbers are particularly exciting after Round 1. Rookie RBs are historically good bets in best ball tournaments since their wide range of outcomes leads to them having more potential upside than other veteran RBs at similar ADPs.

Scroll to the bottom of this article to see the 25th percentile and 75th percentile outcomes for rookie RBs since 2016 to better understand their floors and tantalizing ceilings.

RoundSample SizeRushRecTotal YardsTotal TDs
192423613167
216126218665
32178104102
42986174672
5203592341
623184861
71894430

All ADPs are from Underdog Fantasy, and all projected draft slots are from the NFL Mock Draft Database.

Bijan Robinson - ADP 14

College: Texas

Projected Draft Slot: Round 1, Pick 16

  • Feature back size, incredibly shifty, solid pass catcher, early declare
  • More than 140 total yards per game as a sophomore and junior
  • Think Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall or Najee Harris for rookie-year usage
  • Robinson (scouting report) likely remains a Round 1/2 turn pick

At first, I was turned off by his initial ADP. After more thought, his floor is low-end RB1, and his ceiling is the overall RB1. You should take some shots on the best RB prospect since Barkley.

Jahmyr Gibbs - ADP 61

College: Alabama

Projected Draft Slot: Round 1, Pick 28

  • Early declaration, slightly larger than a scat back, never hit 200 touches in a college season
  • More than 100 career college receptions, with more than 400 receiving yards as a sophomore and junior
  • Probably gets an Alvin Kamara or D’Andre Swift role at the NFL level
  • ADP should rise by 1-2 rounds assuming he goes at the end of Round 1 in the NFL Draft

Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) had bananas receiving usage at both Georgia Tech and Alabama and possesses elite, home run speed. He is my favorite RB target based on ADP, as he’ll be going in Round 2 of best ball drafts should he land with the Cincinnati Bengals or the Kansas City Chiefs.

Zach Charbonnet - ADP 99

College: UCLA

Projected Draft Slot: Round 3, Pick 65

  • Transferred from Michigan to UCLA 
  • At least 195 carries and 1,100 yards rushing in each of the last two years at UCLA
  • Had 75 receptions during a 40-game career, with 37 coming last year
  • Alexander Mattison player comp

Zach Charbonnet (scouting report) is a safe bet not to fall during the pre-draft process, but it’s tough to see his ADP rising outside of a Kansas City-type landing spot.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Sean Tucker - ADP 137

College: Syracuse

Projected Draft Slot: Round 3, Pick 93

  • Had 589 carries over three seasons
  • Had 64 receptions over that span
  • Averaged 17 carries and three receptions per game as a junior

He’s the type of RB that will be the priority waiver add at some point in 2023. His ADP likely rises slightly during the Spring/Summer.

Devon Achane - ADP 148

College: Texas A&M

Projected Draft Slot: Round 2, Pick 59

  • Had 2,012 yards rushing on 326 carries over the past two seasons
  • Had 60 receptions over the past two years

He’s pint-sized at 5-foot-9, 185 pounds, but I have a tough time not pulling the trigger on him at his current ADP, given the likely Round 2 draft capital.

Tyjae Spears - ADP 154

College: Tulane

Projected Draft Slot: Round 4, Pick 110

  • Breakout 1,581 yards rushing and 19 touchdowns on 229 carries last year
  • Had 41 receptions over the last two seasons

Spears is a 190-pound, small-school back that likely won’t get Day 2 draft capital. His current ADP is a bit rich for me based on this profile.

Tank Bigsby

Tank Bigsby - ADP 171

College: Auburn

Projected Draft Slot: Round 4, Pick 104

  • More than 200 touches in each of the last two years
  • Had 51 receptions over that span

Bigsby was touted in Devy circles as a similar talent to Robinson, and I believe his current ADP reflects some of that distaste. His profile is well-rounded, and he likely runs a 4.50 40-yard dash time at close to 210 pounds. I’m taking a couple of shots at his current ADP, though this is still slightly rich for a Day 3 RB.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Zach Evans - ADP 177

College: Mississippi

Projected Draft Slot: Round 3, Pick 80

  • Zach Evans (scouting report) transferred from TCU to Ole Miss for his final collegiate season
  • Never breached 150 carries or 1,000 yards rushing in a season
  • Had 30 receptions in 27 games
  • Jerome Ford player comp 

Evans is a two-year committee back with minimal receiving usage in college. He played a true backup role in his 2022 junior season. The projected draft capital is strong, but a 195-pound college backup is not a profile I’m excited to draft in best ball. I’ll take some shots given the draft capital to ADP disparity.

Roschon Johnson - ADP 200

College: Texas

Projected Draft Slot: Round 4, Pick 135

  • Played behind Robinson
  • Johnson is 6-foot-2, 223 pounds
  • Had 123 carries in 2019, but hasn’t breached 100 since
  • Had 56 receptions during his four-year career

He’s intriguing from a talent perspective since he played behind a generational RB talent at Texas. This is the type of player whose draft stock can rise significantly with a solid combine.

DeWayne McBride - ADP 202

College: UAB

Projected Draft Slot: Round 4, Pick 108

  • At least 200 carries and 1,300 yards rushing in each of the last two seasons
  • Just five total receptions over that span

You cannot find more of a grinder-type back than McBride, and I’m not even sure he has any fantasy upside as a handcuff, given he’s a zero in the passing game.

Kendre Miller - ADP 207

College: TCU

Projected Draft Slot: Round 4, Pick 132

  • Had 1,399 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns on 224 carries last season
  • Less than 100 carries in each of the two previous years
  • Had 29 career receptions

He’s a fine pick at his current ADP, but the profile isn’t one that’s likely to rise much as the draft approaches. There is a slight concern he weighs in at 6 feet, 200 pounds, and is too small to have true handcuff value in fantasy. 

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Chase Brown - ADP 220

College: Illinois

Projected Draft Slot: Round 5, Pick 141

  • Transferred from Western Michigan to Illinois 
  • Had 1,643 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns on 328 carries last season
  • Had 602 carries with 48 receptions over the last three seasons

He is a five-year undersized RB projected to go mid-late Day 3 in the NFL Draft. He’s worth a few shots in Round 20.

Kenny McIntosh

Kenny McIntosh - ADP 221

College: Georgia

Projected Draft Slot: Round 4, Pick 107

  • Had 280 total carries over his four-year career at Georgia, with 150 last year
  • Had 76 receptions in his career, with 43 coming this season

McIntosh (scouting report) goes shockingly late for an elite pass-catcher with size (210 pounds) and a shot at Day 2 draft capital. He’s close to auto-pick territory at his current ADP.

Israel Abanikanda - ADP 233

College: Pitt

Projected Draft Slot: Round 5, Pick 149

  • Good size at 215 pounds, and an early declare with a well-rounded skill set
  • 1,577 total yards as a junior in his first season as a starter

Abanikanda is likely a handcuff and a one-to-two-week waiver wire rental during the season. He likely remains a Round 20 long-shot pick in best ball.

Deuce Vaughn - ADP 234

College: Kansas State

Projected Draft Slot: Round 4, Pick 119

  • 123 carries and 434 receiving yards as a true freshman at Kansas State
  • Over 1,850 scrimmage yards in his sophomore (2021) and junior (2022) seasons
  • Decent chance he would be the best RB prospect of all time were he 5-foot-10, 215 pounds

Unfortunately, Vaughn is 5-foot-6, 170 pounds, a size at which only Darren Sproles has been fantasy relevant. At his ADP, given his talent and draft capital, he’s worth the occasional dart throw. 

Eric Gray - ADP 239

College: Oklahoma

Projected Draft Slot: Round 4, Pick 129

  • Two seasons with at least 30 receptions, three of four seasons with 225 or more receiving yards
  • 213 carries for 1,366 rushing yards as a senior after no more than 157 carries or 772 rushing yards in any of his previous three seasons

Gray is a touch undersized, but worth a pick once in a while at his current ADP in case he crushes the combine.

Evan Hull - ADP 239

College: Northwestern

Projected Draft Slot: Round 5, Pick 161

  • Decent size at roughly 210 pounds, with two years of strong production
  • 1,009 rushing yards as a junior and 55 receptions for 546 receiving yards as a senior highlight a balanced statistical profile

Hull is likely committee back in the NFL, whose receiving profile makes him intriguing at his current ADP.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

25th Percentile Outcomes (Since 2016)

RoundSample SizeRushRecTotal YardsTotal TDs
191812010866
21687136683
3213241841
4293371671
520121530
62331380
7183080

75th Percentile Outcomes (Since 2016)

RoundSample SizeRushRecTotal YardsTotal TDs
1926874166710
2161823311639
321130288575
429111277294
52078164893
62337152171
7183371711

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

We hope you enjoyed reading through this rookie running back primer. Be on the lookout for more best ball articles coming soon, and make sure you're using our free top-250 best ball rankings, which include dozens of player write-ups. Here is our rookie wide receiver primer, the perfect complement to this article.



RELATED