Fantasy
2/28/23
6 min read
2023 Rookie Quarterback Fantasy Football Best Ball Primer
This rookie quarterback primer will help you with your rookie research and any upcoming Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts.
Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds walk you through the top five quarterbacks based on Underdog ADP (average draft position). Together, they focus on giving you a holistic view of each quarterback's profile, along with a dose of ADP game theory to help you handle the 2023 rookie quarterbacks in best ball and dynasty rookie drafts.
Once you’ve read through this rookie quarterback primer, make sure you’re using our free top-250 Underdog Fantasy best ball rankings, complete with dozens of player write-ups. Make sure to consult our rookie wide receiver primer and rookie running back primer, too.
>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Rookie QB Expectations
The below table is the average outcome (50th percentile) for rookie QBs from 2016 onward, separated by NFL Draft round. You’ll notice none of these numbers are particularly exciting after Round 1. Rookie QBs are historically volatile bets in best-ball tournaments given the wide range of outcomes.
Scroll to the bottom of this article to see the 25th percentile and 75th percentile outcomes for rookie QBs since 2016 to better understand their floors and ceilings.
| Round | Sample Size | Games Started | Attempts | Total Yards | Total TDs |
| 1 | 23 | 12 | 383 | 2519 | 14 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 156 | 1362 | 9 |
| 3 | 8 | 3.5 | 88 | 628 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | 0.5 | 21 | 146 | 1 |
All ADPs are from Underdog Fantasy, and all projected draft slots are from the NFL Mock Draft Database. For each player, Reynolds' thoughts are in plain text, while Larky's are italicized.
Bryce Young - ADP 126
College: Alabama
Projected Draft Slot: Round 1, Pick 3
- Young (scouting report) is talented, instinctive and smart enough passer to get a Drew Brees comparison
- More of a play extender than a runner, but could bring top-15 rushing production at the position
- Size is a concern
- He could make it work anywhere, but for fantasy, the Atlanta Falcons or Las Vegas Raiders would be the most interesting, realistic landing spots given their skill groups
- I have seen a lot of draft pundits say Young would be a borderline generational talent if he was 6-foot-5, 230 pounds. Unfortunately, it will be a success if he measures 5-foot-11, 200 pounds. This caps his overall fantasy ceiling given the lack of rushing production
- Young is a fine but unspectacular pick at his current ADP
C.J. Stroud - ADP 150
College: Ohio State
Projected Draft Slot: Round 1, Pick 4
- Stroud (scouting report) has 8,123 yards passing, 85 passing touchdowns and a 69% completion percentage during the past two years
- He is a good, but not dynamic, athlete for the position that brings limited fantasy value as a runner
- You don’t want any rookie quarterback to go to a team with a bad line, but that kind of landing spot would be more problematic for Stroud than the other top prospects
- Stroud is perfectly fine at current ADP, but it’s tough to see massive spike week potential with his skill set
- Only the Falcons have a plus skill position group among the teams most likely contending for a QB early in the draft
Will Levis - ADP 197
College: Kentucky
Projected Draft Slot: Round 1, Pick 5
- Levis (scouting report) transferred from Penn State to Kentucky for his final two collegiate seasons
- He is talented but raw with far more uneven passing production than Young or Stroud
- Ran for 1,188 yards during his four-year career with at least 200 yards rushing in three of his four seasons
- Actually ran less last season than in the previous three
- He’s an interesting dart throw at his ADP, who could be a better fantasy QB than a real-life NFL QB
Anthony Richardson - ADP 221
College: Florida
Projected Draft Slot: Round 1, Pick 14
- Richardson (scouting report) only started last year but is a supremely talented dual-threat quarterback
- He has NFL arm talent, but had a 54% completion percentage last season
- He ran for 735 yards rushing on 88 carries last year
- Cam Newton player comparison
- The Falcons' run-reliant offense, with two blue-chip pass catchers, would be an intriguing landing spot for Richardson
- He’s a savvy QB3 in any build, and I love pairing him with two safe middle-round options like Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers
- Recent struggles from toolsy QBs like Trey Lance and Malik Willis are suppressing Richardson's ADP
Hendon Hooker - ADP 239.5
College: Tennessee
Projected Draft Slot: Round 3, Pick 77
- Hooker transferred from Virginia Tech to Tennessee for his final two years
- He threw for at least 2,945 yards passing and 27 touchdowns in each of the last two years
- Hooker had a 58:5 TD:INT ratio during that span
- He ran for 2,026 yards rushing during the last four years
- Hooker beat Alabama, 52-49, behind 385 yards passing and five touchdowns
- He tore his ACL in his left knee in late November
- Hooker is 25 years old
- Probably a fade in early best ball, but Hooker should be monitored given his dual-threat skill set
- Hooker could be a moderately interesting waiver wire add during the season given his rushing production, but it’s tough to see him starting more than a small handful of games as a rookie. He’s a pass in best ball drafts for me, too
25th Percentile Outcomes (Since 2016)
| Round | Sample Size | Games Started | Attempts | Total Yards | Total TDs |
| 1 | 23 | 7 | 205 | 1887 | 9 |
| 2 | 3 | 4.5 | 152 | 1227 | 8 |
| 3 | 8 | 2 | 54 | 365 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
75th Percentile Outcomes (Since 2016)
| Round | Sample Size | Games Started | Attempts | Total Yards | Total TDs |
| 1 | 23 | 13 | 473 | 3581 | 20 |
| 2 | 3 | 10 | 316 | 2338 | 13 |
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 202 | 1440 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | 2 | 88 | 609 | 3 |
>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
We hope you enjoyed reading through this rookie quarterback primer. Be on the lookout for more best ball articles coming soon, and make sure you’re using our free top-250 best ball rankings, which include dozens of player write-ups. Here is our rookie wide receiver primer and our rookie running back primer, the perfect complements to this article.
