Expert Analysis
4/28/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Draft: Awkward First-Round Fantasy Football Fits
Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds are breaking down some of the most awkward fantasy fits from Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Awkward Fantasy Fits
Texans Select C.J. Stroud at No. 2
- C.J. Stroud (scouting report) goes from a ridiculous supporting cast in college to perhaps the worst wide receiver group in the NFL.
- Stroud is primarily a pocket passer, which means his fantasy production will be reliant on his ability to shred teams through the air.
- Stroud is a pressure-sensitive quarterback, but at least the Houston Texans offensive line has fringe top-10 potential with left tackle Laremy Tunsil and newly acquired guard Shaq Mason serving as foundational pillars.
- We’re treating Stroud as a matchups-based streaming option entering his rookie season.
Lions Select Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12
- Think of Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) as slightly faster Austin Ekeler for a general player comparison.
- As of right now, David Montgomery ($11 million in guaranteed money) and D’Andre Swift are on this roster.
- Unless Swift is traded, Gibbs will be competing with a competent early down back and a competent pass-catching back.
- Gibbs weighs 199 pounds, so volume concerns will always be there.
- He’s an elite pass-catcher, who we expect to take some, if not most, of the receiving work from Swift.
- Montgomery is more than 20 pounds heavier, so it will be an uphill battle for Gibbs to receive goal-line touches.
- The Detroit Lions backfield totaled the most PPR fantasy points among all 32 teams in 2022.
- We will like this landing spot significantly more if Swift is traded and would draft Gibbs in Round 4 or 5 if this happens.
- If Swift is on the opening-day roster, Gibbs should be drafted closer to Round 7.
Seahawks Select Jaxon Smith-Njigba at No. 20
- Assuming DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain healthy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) will be third in the pecking order for targets.
- Smith-Njigba is a slot player with a similar — though possibly more narrow — skillset to Lockett.
- Geno Smith and this Seattle Seahawks' offense should be a top-10 pass attack in 2023.
- If anything were to happen to Metcalf or Lockett, Smith-Njigba is a top-24 fantasy option.
- He will probably get drafted in Round 9 or 10 for fantasy, but should probably go closer to Round 8, given the contingent injury upside.
- If Metcalf and Lockett stay healthy, expect 60 receptions and 800 yards.
- Should one of them miss significant time, 75-80 receptions and close to 1,000 yards would be the new expectation.
Ravens Select Zay Flowers With No. 22 Pick
- Zay Flowers (scouting report) is a fine prospect that brings speed and run-after-the-catch ability to the table.
- Todd Monken’s offense will be more pass centric than Greg Roman’s was.
- With that in mind, Lamar Jackson has breached 3,000 yards passing in one of his five seasons (he had 3,127 in his 2019 MVP campaign).
- Furthermore, there is suddenly a lot of target competition amongst the Baltimore Ravens with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr and Flowers.
- There are clear paths to Flowers not seeing enough volume to be a consistent factor in fantasy during his rookie season.
- We’re more bullish on Flowers long-term, but for 2023, he’s no more than a WR3 or WR4 type.
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