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It was a rough week 1 for Josh Allen, but that shouldn’t affect our overall view of the team. They are still legit and have the highest team total on the slate.
Allen and Stefon Diggs are the only always-drafted players, making the secondary pieces at low ownership good picks. Dalton Kincaid was used as their WR3 with 80 percent of snaps, but we get him at tight end. He will have big games ahead.
Stack Plays: Allen + Diggs /Kincaid; or James Cook
There is sneaky shootout potential here, and this game shouldn’t be stacked much. The last two times these teams have met, the final scores were 48-45 and 51-29. Both quarterbacks are rarely drafted, and the WR1’s are always drafted.
This game has sneaky shootout potential that could go under the radar. The market is overreacting to a one-week sample of poor play.
Uniqueness, ADP 35+
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Justin Fields’ outlook as a real-life quarterback is growing increasingly concerning. However, as a fantasy asset, he still has an elite rushing ceiling.
Week 1 was extremely bearish for DJ Moore’s role. He was not scripted many looks, finishing with just two targets on 37 pass attempts. Cole Kmet’s usage was appealing, and it’s preferred to run Fields unstacked or with Kmet.
Other plays: Geno Smith
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
We touched on it briefly above. Cook is the clear starting running back (59 percent of snaps) on the highest team total on the slate with leverage on two top picks, so sign me up.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
We have similar reasoning as Cook for this pick. We’ve seen Joe Mixon’s spike weeks before, and Week 1 confirmed he still has a valuable role in a good offense.
Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Nico Collins‘ underlying usage in Week 1 was excellent. He had a 25 percent target share and 64 percent air yards share, while his team surprisingly passed the ball at a rate well above expectation. This feels like a good spot to get ahead of the market.
Other plays: Tyler Lockett
The issue with most of the late tight ends is their ability to stay on the field. We want them to earn routes and targets. Here are the guys at TE8+ who had encouraging Week 1 usage:
|Name||Route Percentage||Target Percentage|
It’s hard to interpret Jake Ferguson’s Week 1 because that game was blown open immediately, but he had six targets and 14 routes on 27 dropbacks. He’s definitely an interesting play.
I’ll be drafting a lot of Travis Kelce, Andrews and Austin Ekeler at a discount since Underdog offers the free swap ability. If any of these guys can’t go, swap to Joshua Kelley or a low-owned tight end. Read about Underdog’s swap rules here.