Fantasy
10/14/22
20 min read
Week 6 DFS Cash Games
Here we go, everybody. It's Week 6, and I have not touched grass for a month and a half since the NFL season started. My family forgets what I look like, and my friends stopped asking me to make plans on Sundays. I think my girlfriend is still living in this house with me, but I'm not too sure. I've been too busy in my lair crunching numbers on this computer to notice.
Over here at The 33rd Team, we like to nerd out and embrace the grind of DFS. We have Jordan Vanek, head of DFS, talking to previous NFL players and getting their takes on WR matchups weekly. Matt Hakim, our high-stakes writer, is always dropping such valuable knowledge, winning millions, and helping our viewers secure big bags. Then we have me chippin' away at the ol' cash game block, building bigger bankrolls one article at a time. We are getting the ball rolling here, and this is the time of year my wheels start mega-churning to smash slates.
During the first few weeks, you get thrown a bit of a loop adjusting to the NFL landscape with new team changes in the offseason and navigating the offenses and defenses for what they are and not for who we thought they might be. It's genuinely a headache and makes you question if you are even good at what you do anymore—really trying times as a fantasy analyst sorting out the fantasy from reality. Pun intended.
It's like everything we expected to happen following the offseason doesn't always happen. We have to wipe our thinking slate clean and start adjusting to what is happening out there. There are times when things are still confusing a month into this thing—for example, watching the Detroit Lions averaging 35 points a game to go on and put up a giant fat donut this week. That's frustrating, and it's also something we should have seen coming. But I digress.
For the most part, we see things more clearly regarding things that matter the most for DFS. *Queue I Can See Clearly Now by Jimmy Cliff*. I'm talking about things like consistent player usage, targets, red zone usage, and defenses vs. opposing positions. I can go on forever, but the fact is it gets a whole heck of a lot easier for me on a week-to-week basis to help you smash your DFS lineups, and this is where the real fun begins. I'm not Carson Wentz YOLO-balling it to you anymore. We're sharpening our DFS skills like a knife that's about to cut up the competition and get you some serious cash every week so let's get to it! Â
Quarterbacks
 Josh Allen - (DraftKings: $8,200 / FanDuel: $9,200)
It's genuinely sink-or-swim week here with the top quarterbacks on this slate. It's hard to formulate a narrative in our brain where the Bills vs. Chiefs game doesn't go ballistic. Do we want to be left out of the plethora of points that can be scored in this matchup? Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will be next-level chalk, and it's likely to be that of the good kind. It's a coin flip which quarterback you'd like to take of your choosing. If we're going off who's better at coin flips, I'll take Patrick Mahomes *wink wink*. All joking aside, Josh Allen easily has the better defensive matchup on paper, and I'll tell you why.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been top-notch at shutting down the run just behind the Buffalo Bills and is allowing an average of only 83.6 rushing yards per game. They are funneling opposing teams into passing more and aren't particularly ready for it, seeing as they've allowed an average of 255.6 passing yards per game. Not a position you want to be in going up against one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league with Josh Allen under center. Allen himself is averaging 324 passing yards a game. Furthermore, he has to be looking for redemption after the Chiefs knocked the Bills out of the playoffs last year. Containing Josh Allen to a game won through the air is a scary thought. Best of luck to anyone who isn't using him on this slate.
We should also consider just how heavily the Bills lean on Josh Allen. Some may argue too heavily to the point that it's the bane of their existence. Allen is the team's leading rusher, alongside being the damn quarterback that accounts for 16 of the 17 offensive touchdowns they've scored this season. That is arguably why he is atop the list of cash-game quarterbacks every week. The floor is too safe, and the ceiling is sky-high. The Chiefs rank 4th with the most QB1 finishes allowed to opposing teams this season. So, let the Bills keep putting all the weight on Josh Allen, and we will keep paying up for him as our quarterback to reap the benefits of that reward.Â
Kyler Murray - (DraftKings: $7,300 / FanDuel: $8,300)
Buried in the glitz and glam of the Bills/Chiefs game on this slate is Kyler Murray going up against a terrible Seattle Seahawks defense. When you consider how much higher of a ceiling guys such as Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar have displayed this season, the appeal of Murray feels lackluster. It's like, why the hell would I play Murray when I can pay up and get the top-tier QBs?
But Murray himself is not that far removed from having the same type of ceiling as any of the names I mentioned above. Let's look back into the past just a little bit. We're going to throw out last year for Murray because he was hurt for a part of the season. But in 2020, Kyler finished as the QB2 on the year, right behind Josh Allen. He has QB1 slate-breaking potential in his bag of tricks, and I think he's a great pivot off the Bills/Chiefs game in case that one doesn't turn out to be the barn burner we were all expecting.
We have yet to see the breakout game out of Kyler Murray. But we know it's coming with his league-leading 215 pass attempts per game. The ground game hasn't done much for him, and it isn't getting any better this week when it looks like James Conner and Darrell Williams will be sitting this one out. The most frustrating thing we're seeing from Kyler is his lack of mobility he's held back on us this season. Just what the hell is that?
WATCH MORE: The 33rd Team's Fantasy expert Josh Larky breaks down why you should be excited for Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals this week.
So far, through five weeks, Kyler is averaging 5.6 rush attempts per game. Last year he was averaging 6.2 in a year where he dealt with injury, and in his 2020 QB2 finish season, he averaged 8.3 rush attempts. Go back to using those little legs, Kyler! That might be just what he does here in Week 6 with a lack of run-game signing guys off the street such as Corey Clement and trusting Eno Benjamin to carry the load by himself. Kyler will need to offer them some relief with his mobility and pass-happy nature. Lucky for us, in Week 5, we saw him resort back to his old ways, and he logged a season-high of 42 rushing yards. Fingers crossed he keeps this trend pointing up.
Truthfully, the recipe is set for Kyler to smash, seeing as the Seahawks have the worst pass defense in the league and have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. Taysom Hill just exploded against them with 9 rushing attempts for 112 yards and 3 touchdowns. They equally can't contain the run as much as they can't stop the pass. Arizona has a 27-point implied team total. When you mix the second-highest implied team total on the slate with a Seattle Seahawks defense that ranks 31st in defensive DVOA against the pass, you have to think a ceiling game is incoming.
It also helps to know that the Seahawks are a familiar foe in this divisional matchup for Kyler. He has averaged more than 20 fantasy points per the five games he's played against them in his career. I'm riding on the wheels of believing in Kyler to retain some QB1 appeal and the Seattle Seahawks defense allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks per game to get the job done at an affordable price.
Honorable Mention: Tom Brady - (DraftKings: $6,300 / FanDuel: $7,500)
Deep Sleeper: Geno Smith - (DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel: $7,400)
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley - (DraftKings: $7,700 / FanDuel: $8,800)
What kind of DFS cash games player and fantasy football analyst would I be if I didn't suggest Saquon Barkley to you weekly? This can all be so simple. Pay up for Barkley and pay down at the RB2 spot so you can proceed with building your lineup. Until the day Barkley is Cooper Kupp tier-level pricing at almost 10K, you must keep plugging him into your lineups. His usage is absolutely insane in the New York Giants offense because the man is doing it all, leading the team in rushing and targets.
What he has been doing here these last couple of weeks is beyond comeback player of the year recognition. He is the pulse that keeps this New York Giants team's heart beating. If you think they aren't going to need to call on Saquon to pull a rabbit out of his hat to help the Giants in this game against the Baltimore Ravens, then you got another thing comin'.Â
WATCH MORE: Former NFL QB Rich Gannon argues Saquon Barkley is the leader for Comeback Player of the Year.
Barkley will be running the rock, throwin' the ball, catching it, and hurrying back over to play defense. I'm just being dramatic. He's obviously not doing "all" of that, but man, it feels that way when you watch Saquan explode weekly. Since we have Saquon averaging 23 touches a game, 135.2 total yards, and continues to remain heavily involved as a primary target for Daniel Jones, you should be excited to hear that Baltimore is giving up the 2nd most catches to running backs this season.
Baltimore's run defense is also giving up the fifth-most yards receiving to opposing backs. With Barkley tied for 11th in the league in YAC, he's fitting as snug as a bug in a rug for another explosion game. Speaking of explosions, Barkley is first in explosive breakaway runs too. He's just too good right now. Too good to leave off your lineups, so don't be caught fumbling the bag on him this week. Fit him into your lineup!
Rhamondre Stevenson - (DraftKings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $7,500)
The man headlining this cash games article, and rightfully so, is my favorite play this week. Rhamondre Stevenson SZN is upon us, and what a gift to get him in the backfield all alone in an absolute CAKE matchup vs. the Cleveland Browns. They rank at the stone-cold bottom in rush defense DVOA and have let opposing running backs feast on them all this season, giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. We also saw Rhamondre get 90% of the snaps last week when Damien Harris went down due to injury. I expect more of the same to happen here in week 6. With great opportunity comes great responsibility and great fantasy points for our cash-game running back.
The Patriots don't have a particularly ideal situation at quarterback, having Bailey Zappe starting at the helm, so they've had no choice but to favor the run. They've been one of the more run-heavy teams in the league. They can't hurt us right now with running back trickery in that backfield. At least, I don't think so. I guess the only thing stopping Stevenson this week is Bill Belichick himself. Otherwise, he should have no problem smashing his value at this salary. He's priced way too low for his RB1 upside, and I'm putting a lot of my eggs in the Rhamondre basket this week on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention: - Breece Hall (DraftKings: $5,800 / FanDuel: $7,100)
Deep Sleeper: - Eno Benjamin (DraftKings: $4,600 / FanDuel: $6,300)
Wide Receivers
Ja'Marr Chase - (DraftKings: $7,700 / FanDuel: $8,100)
I am willing to die on the Ja'Marr Chase hill this week. As of Thursday night, I am writing this article, and it looks like no Tee Higgins for the Cincinnati Bengals and no Marshon Lattimore for the New Orleans Saints. If there is ever a big-time guy due for his slate-breaking game, it's got to be Jamarr Chase. The issue with Ja'Marr Chase has never been talent. But the play calling and route tree we've witnessed has been so freaking frustrating I can hardly stomach it. You HAVE to scheme to get that man open because the damage he can do is irreparable to an opposing defense. Now I might be crazy suggesting Jamarr Chase in a cash game lineup because who the hell wants to pay up and play him with the fantasy production he's been putting out?
That would be me, and it should be you too. This week I think things take a significant turn for Chase. It's not that he isn't seeing the type of usage we like to see for our cash game receivers. He has a 28% target share, and the positive regression has got to hit at some point. It almost always does. The fact there may be no Marshon Lattimore has me licking my chops at this opportunity. According to FantasyPros and one of my favorite people who bleed their heart and soul into the weekly Primer article, Derek Brown, says that Ja'Marr Chase leads the team with 6 deep targets.
Chase has notoriously been a deep threat. The New Orleans Saints secondary is 26th in DVOA against deep passing. The Saints have also allowed the second-most deep passes and fifth-most deep receptions. Chase vs. the Saints secondary sounds like an arranged marriage that I'm making happen in many of my cash game lineups this week. Hopefully, Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase will feel at home in the bayou and connect for some major fantasy points this weekend. The redemption tour begins now!
Tyler Lockett - (DraftKings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $7,500)
I don't know if the man or woman in charge of DFS pricing loves us and wants to give us a free square or if they haven't watched a Seahawks game yet this season. Tyler Lockett, priced at $5,600, is just egregious at this point. I can't possibly be the only person who noticed Lockett going on this earth-shattering tear along with Geno Smith. He's a top-10 WR in full PPR scoring. Let's look at Lockett's fantasy finishes over the last month.
- Week 5: WR 3 (30.4 DK points)
- Week 4: WR 24 (14.1 DK points)
- Week 3: WR 24 (16.1 DK points)
- Week 2: WR 14 (22.7 DK points)
These are pretty damn good numbers for a cash games wide receiver with a safe floor and a high ceiling. We have witnessed Tyler Lockett's ceiling in the past, so we know he has those 3 touchdown games for 200 yards in him. I still remember two years ago when he played against the Arizona Cardinals and scored 56 DraftKings points. He has a pretty good history going against the Cardinals and has scored 20 or more points in three of his last four matchups.
But I'm all for the Tyler Lockett blowup game if it wants to happen here again. We know his floor can be basement-low. But we have yet to see it this season. I'm perfectly comfortable in my lineups moving forward until proven otherwise. However, he did show up on the injury report this week, which needs to be monitored moving forward. If he isn't able to go or is limited in any capacity, my pivot here would be to Christian Kirk.
Honorable Mention: Jakobi Meyers - (DraftKings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $6,600)
Deep Sleeper: Rondale Moore - (DraftKings: $4,200 / FanDuel: $5,600)
*I also want to note*Â
Obviously, play your Bills receivers this week in cash as well. That includes Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie. This is the highest over/under on the slate, which is pretty much a give-me. Rather discuss some other players to get different.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews - (DraftKings: $7,000 / FanDuel: $7,800)
Holy cow, this man is expensive. Sheesh! I mean, it's for a good reason, though, because Andrews has been balling out. Even more so with the absence of wide receiver Rashod Bateman who looks likely to miss this week too. It makes sense to see him at 7k because, as you've heard before, this man is played as a wide receiver and not your traditional tight end.
If we were going by fantasy points alone, Mark Andrews would be the WR7 on DraftKings this year. He averages 18.8 DK points per game, so we must respect the pricing because it is what it is. If you can find the salary to do it, then Mark Andrews is in a really good spot to have a good game this week. There is an argument to make room for him as your tight end and to stop being cheap about things.
The New York Giants give up the fourth-highest catch rate and ninth-most receptions to opposing tight ends. They also have been playing more man coverage over the last three weeks, where Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews have found a fair amount of fantasy success. You can learn more about players vs. certain types of coverages by using The 33rd Team's Edge tool. According to Pro Football Focus, Andrews also has 4 catches of 10+ yards vs. man coverage leading the NFL. When it comes down to it, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce are always going to be in a tier of their own. But I prefer Mark Andrews this week for $800 fewer.Â
Zach Ertz - (DraftKings: $4,900 / FanDuel: $6,000)
Only a fool would not be putting Zach Ertz into their cash game lineup this week, and I know my readers aren't fools. We are the sharps of the DFS world, and we won't be left on DraftKings with our names out there in the bottom tier of contests. Not on my watch!
Zach Ertz is so good this week that the only team besides the Seattle Seahawks who are worse at defending the tight end position is his own. They have given up double-digit fantasy points to tight ends in four out of the five weeks of football. They are truly far and away above the rest, with the Seahawks giving up 19.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends compared to the Arizona Cardinals with 11.8. It's ugly out there for this Seahawks' defense, people.
As if his matchup wasn't juicy enough, Ertz is also tied with the 3rd most red zone targets this season. I don't see a world on Sunday that doesn't involve Zach Ertz ruling it at the tight end position. If the stars align with poor defensive play and red zone opportunities that keep stacking up, he should be in for a big day.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee  - (DraftKings: $4,600 / FanDuel: $6,200)
Deep Sleeper: David Njoku - (DraftKings: $4,000 / FanDuel: $5,900)
Defense / Special Teams
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons - (DraftKings: $3,700 / FanDuel: $4,700)
I honestly think this is the only defense I like on the slate. Usually, we have some help at a lower-tier salary to exploit some matchup. But this week doesn't have it for us. But it is expensive, and I'm not one to pay up for defense. If you can find a way to fit the 49ers in, then they are in an excellent position to have a good fantasy day. They are the second-ranked DST on DraftKings this year and are the fourth-highest-priced D/ST on the slate.
The 49ers caught a couple of injuries last week, so their defensive depth may be tested. But against Marcus Mariota and the Falcon's dismal run game, it may be something that goes unnoticed. The 49ers have at least one sack in 32 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Even more impressively is what they've done over the last two weeks, recording 6 sacks in Week 5 and 7 in Week 4.
WATCH MORE: Rich Gannon argues that the 49ers have the best defense in the NFL.
While they played poor offensive lines in the Panthers and the Rams in those games, it's not like Atlanta is sporting the Great Wall of China on their offensive line. They aren't the worst, but they certainly aren't the best. If the 49ers generate pressure, you'll find Marcus Mariota running around for his life. The 49er's run defense is one of the best in the league. They are also allowing a league-best 249.2 total yards per game. I've probably gone on too long because you know these guys are good so obviously, fit them in if you can.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (DraftKings: $3,000 / FanDuel: $4,300)
Let's go back to the well here and nit-pick the Colts vs. the Jaguars, who just wrecked them a month ago. The last time these two faced off, the Jaguars recorded 3 interceptions and 5 sacks. They allowed only 164 passing yards and 54 rushing yards. Not that it's shocking to us at this point that the Colts struggle to move the ball. But coach Frank Reich has notoriously performed poorly against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He's never defeated the Jaguars on the road. While they have played better at home, this is not the same kind of Indianapolis Colts team we've seen in years past.Â
This is a Matt Ryan lead Indianapolis Colts team, and man, does he look absolutely washed. He needs to be hung up to dry, but that's another story. Right now, Matt Ryan can't stop turning over the ball. He's had 7 interceptions through five weeks, and 3 of them came against the Jaguars. When he isn't throwing interceptions, he's leading the league in fumbles with 11. Marcus Mariota, who faces the team I just listed above, is the second-worst with 7.
That number is outrageous, and things like that constantly shift a team's momentum when you can't sustain drives. I mean, you can blame the hell out of Matt Ryan, and you should. But the Colts offensive line is nothing that it used to be for those who haven't been keeping score. The quarterback has played horribly, the running backs have played awfully, and the offensive line has played terribly. Therefore, they are a team to target opposing D/STs as they have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to them.Â
Honorable Mention: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (DraftKings: $2,700 / FanDuel: $4,000)
Deep Sleeper: - Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams (DraftKings: $2,400 / FanDuel: $3,700)
WATCH MORE: DFS Expert Jordan Vanek and former Pro Bowl WR Greg Jennings break down the DFS implications of the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup.
