Analysis

12/10/22

11 min read

Week 14 DFS Main Slate Tournament Games

By Jordan Vanek

Week 14 DFS Tournament Games

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.

Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.

We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link here! 

Double Stacks

  • Stack: QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase & WR Tee Higgins

  • Runback: RB Nick Chubb

The Browns defense is either going to sack Joe Burrow quite often or give up the big play down the field. In three of the Browns’ last four games, they have pressured the quarterback at under a 25% rate. When Burrow is not pressured, he ranks top 10 in yards per attempt, pass touchdown rate, and completion percentage. The price of this stack is difficult to get to, but it’s possible this weekend to find yourself with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

The two main coverages this year for the Browns have been Cover 1 and Cover 4. Amongst players with 100 snaps against these coverages, Higgins ranks 13th in targets per route run, 18th in yards per route run, and Chase ranks 15th in targets per route run and 10th in yards per route run. If I am stacking Burrow, I am going for the ceiling, and not many will be able to get these two with Nick Chubb in their lineups.

Chubb has over 100 yards rushing and two touchdowns in three of the last four games against the Bengals. In the one game, he did not achieve this; he played 16 snaps and had nine carries for 58 yards rushing. The Bengals did shut down Derrick Henry; however, Henry has been shut down by three of the last four teams he has played. In games where the Browns score 24 or more and their opponent does, Chubb averages 121 yards rushing and 1.6 touchdowns.

  • Stack: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb & TE Dalton Schultz

Dak Prescott is in the price range of being a unique quarterback because he’s only $500 cheaper than Burrow and $400 more expensive than Kirk Cousins. The Texans rank in the bottom ten at defending the run and the pass this season by yards per attempt and yards per carry. The Cowboys can easily get it done by handing the ball off to Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott.

However, Prescott, in games the Cowboys have won by ten or more points, averages 260 yards passing and 2.5 passing touchdowns. Since Prescott came back and against the Texans' primary coverages, CeeDee Lamb averages 3.03 yards per route run, and Dalton Schultz averages 2.49 yards per route run against these coverages, and the Cowboys can reach the implied total through the air.

  • Stack: QB Geno Smith, WR Tyler Lockett & TE Noah Fant

  • Runback: RB D’Onta Foreman

The Panthers primarily play Cover 3 and Cover 4. Smith, against these coverages, averages 9.3 yards per attempt and has a 9-3 TD-INT ratio. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have four touchdowns each against these coverages, and picking between them has always been difficult. To me, Lockett fits the style of wide receiver that the Panthers have struggled to defend this season, with Chris Olave, Demarcus Robinson, and Marquise Brown putting up big games. Metcalf also popped up on the injury report this weekend, and it was a hip issue that held him out Friday. Since Week 9, Fant has averaged 2.83 yards per route run against these coverages and is third in the NFL in yards amongst tight ends. 

D’Onta Foreman has over 100 yards rushing in four of his last six games, and it’s easy to love the matchup. Seattle allowed five running backs over 100 yards rushing, and two did not need over 20 rushing attempts. They have also allowed four wide receivers over 60 yards receiving, and Foreman leads the running backs in routes.

Single Stacks

  • Stack: QB Jalen Hurts & WR AJ Brown

  • Runback: WR Isaiah Hodgins

Don Martindale loves bringing pressure while playing man coverage. Jalen Hurts against a man blitz averages 8.7 yards per attempt and has a 5-0 TD to INT ratio. Against man coverage, A.J. Brown has a 36% target share, averages 3.57 yards per route run, and has the most yards in the NFL. Adoree' Jackson is also missing this game, and the Giants could be without Saquon Barkley.

Isaiah Hodgins has run over 70% of the routes in the last two games, and since Week 10, he has been targeted at a higher rate than Darius Slayton against the Eagles' primary coverages. The Eagles will run a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4, which Hodgins averages 2.43 yards per route run against.

  • Stack: QB Patrick Mahomes & TE Travis Kelce

  • Runback: WR Jerry Jeudy

Following a loss, the Chiefs have scored over 40 points in each game, and Patrick Mahomes has thrown three touchdowns. The Broncos play a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3, which Travis Kelce leads the team in target share, and yards per route run. Mahomes against these coverages averages 8.2 yards per attempt and has a 10-3 TD-INT ratio. Kelce can have a massive advantage at the tight end position and give you a big point differential from the next-highest scorer. 

There are two Broncos to have an interest in, Jerry Jeudy and Greg Dulcich. I have no issue playing either of them, and Dulcich will be more rare because you are going to a double tight-end lineup. However, the Chiefs play a lot of man coverage, and against man, Jeudy averages the 2nd most yards per route run. I don’t mind doubling them in this game, but it’s not recommended because of how bad Wilson has been this season.

Mini-Stacks

  • MIN @ DET

    • TE T.J. Hockenson & WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

    • WR K.J. Osborn & WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

There are many ways to mini-stack this game, and so I listed the top 2 for me. The Lions have been awful at defending in-line tight ends, and since coming over to the Vikings, T.J. Hockenson is third in the NFL in routes run as an in-line tight end. There aren’t many certainties in life, but I know one of them is the Lions being incapable of defending the slot. From the slot, nine players have scored, eight have over 70 receiving yards, and six have at least five receptions. Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn will get slot snaps, but I like the uniqueness of Osborn. He has scored in two of the four games he’s played against the Lions and had 40 or more yards in two of these games. 

Since trading away Hockenson against the Vikings' primary coverages, Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 35% target share and averages 4.35 yards per route run. The Vikings play this soft Cover 4 coverage that keeps everything in front of them and allows wide receivers to work freely. 

The quarterbacks are way too popular for me to play on a slate that features some of the best in the league, and the news on Jeff Okudah will be a big factor in how to play Justin Jefferson. Okudah got the best of him in their first matchup, but it was Okudah with help over the top, and if Okudah can’t play, Jefferson can beat any corner they have, even with help.

  • JAX @ TEN

    • WR Zay Jones & RB Derrick Henry

The news on Trevor Lawrence dictates whether I will be looking to play Zay Jones. Jones has been the primary target against the Titans' primary coverages, and they have been beaten deep frequently this season. The attention is going to be on Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne, leaving no safety over the top of Jones.

Derrick Henry is popular this weekend because he has two games of over 200 yards rushing against the Jaguars and averages over 100 yards rushing against them in his career. He ran for 140 yards the last time they played each other, and he will be in line for that in this one. The Jaguars' run defense has not performed at all in recent weeks, and Henry is looking for a bounce back after his recent struggles.

One-Offs

There is no specific players to one-off this weekend, and all the players that were talked about can be utilized as the only player in the game.

Defenses

  • Cowboys

This is a David vs. Goliath matchup; the Cowboys have been the best defense for DFS on the season and are taking on one of the worst teams without their two top players. The Cowboys average four sacks a game and are rank 1st in pressure rate. The Texans give up the third most pressures and have been sacked at a 7.3% rate. 

  • Eagles

The Eagles have the second most sacks in the NFL and are going up against the team that’s allowed the 4th highest sack rate and 2nd highest pressure rate. The Giants could also be without Saquon Barkley in this matchup, and that would take even more away from this offense.

  • Steelers

In Tyler Huntley’s four starts, he was sacked 15 times and threw four interceptions. He did get a start against the Steelers, and he threw two interceptions while being sacked three times. The Steelers have forced a turnover in every game since the return of TJ Watt and have held three opponents under 20 points.

  • Browns

Against Joe Burrow, the Browns have a 12% sack rate; for perspective, the Cowboys have a 10.8% sack rate this season. I am playing Nick Chubb with this defense and hoping they continue their dominance. They are not a popular defense, and Chubb will not be a popular running back.

  • Panthers

The Panthers are $2,200 on DraftKings, facing a team that will not have much of a running game. The Panthers' defense has held their last three opponents under 20 points and forced a turnover in each game. Geno Smith has thrown an interception and has been sacked three times in three of his last four games.

Week 14 DFS Main Slate Player Pool

Player Pos Team Opp DK Salary FD Salary VegasPts
Jalen Hurts QB PHI @ NYG $8,100 $8,700 25.75
Patrick Mahomes QB KC @ DEN $8,000 $8,800 26.25
Joe Burrow QB CIN vs CLE $7,000 $8,300 25.75
Dak Prescott QB DAL vs HOU $6,500 $8,000 30.75
Geno Smith QB SEA vs CAR $6,200 $7,700 23.75
Christian McCaffrey RB SF vs TB $8,500 $8,500 20.25
Derrick Henry RB TEN vs JAC $7,900 $9,000 22.25
Nick Chubb RB CLE @ CIN $7,800 $8,400 20.75
Dalvin Cook RB MIN @ DET $7,300 $8,700 25.25
Joe Mixon RB CIN vs CLE $6,900 $8,500 25.75
Tony Pollard RB DAL vs HOU $6,700 $7,500 30.75
Miles Sanders RB PHI @ NYG $6,200 $7,100 25.75
Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL vs HOU $6,100 $8,000 30.75
Jamaal Williams RB DET vs MIN $5,900 $7,000 26.25
D'Andre Swift RB DET vs MIN $5,800 $7,200 26.25
Isiah Pacheco RB KC @ DEN $5,700 $7,300 26.25
D'Onta Foreman RB CAR @ SEA $5,400 $6,900 20.75
James Cook RB BUF vs NYJ $4,600 $6,100 26.75
Justin Jefferson WR MIN @ DET $9,000 $9,300 25.25
Stefon Diggs WR BUF vs NYJ $8,300 $8,500 26.75
A.J. Brown WR PHI @ NYG $8,000 $8,400 25.75
JaMarr Chase WR CIN vs CLE $7,900 $8,700 25.75
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET vs MIN $7,800 $8,600 26.25
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL vs HOU $7,500 $8,200 30.75
DK Metcalf WR SEA vs CAR $7,100 $7,900 23.75
Tee Higgins WR CIN vs CLE $7,000 $7,800 25.75
Tyler Lockett WR SEA vs CAR $6,500 $7,700 23.75
DeVonta Smith WR PHI @ NYG $6,300 $7,000 25.75
Amari Cooper WR CLE @ CIN $6,200 $7,300 20.75
Garrett Wilson WR NYJ @ BUF $5,900 $7,200 16.75
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR KC @ DEN $5,600 $6,600 26.25
DJ Moore WR CAR @ SEA $5,500 $6,900 20.75
Jerry Jeudy WR DEN vs KC $5,400 $6,500 17.25
Gabriel Davis WR BUF vs NYJ $5,300 $6,200 26.75
Darius Slayton WR NYG vs PHI $5,100 $6,300 18.75
Tyler Boyd WR CIN vs CLE $5,000 $5,900 25.75
Donovan Peoples-Jones WR CLE @ CIN $4,900 $6,100 20.75
Adam Thielen WR MIN @ DET $4,900 $6,400 25.25
Kadarius Toney WR KC @ DEN $4,800 $5,900 26.25
Zay Jones WR JAC @ TEN $4,700 $6,300 19.25
Michael Gallup WR DAL vs HOU $4,600 $6,000 30.75
Jameson Williams WR DET vs MIN $4,400 $4,500 26.25
D.J. Chark WR DET vs MIN $4,300 $5,700 26.25
Isaiah McKenzie WR BUF vs NYJ $4,200 $5,600 26.75
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC @ DEN $4,100 $5,800 26.25
Quez Watkins WR PHI @ NYG $3,800 $5,400 25.75
K.J. Osborn WR MIN @ DET $3,500 $5,300 25.25
Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG vs PHI $3,500 $5,500 18.75
Laviska Shenault Jr. WR CAR @ SEA $3,300 $5,200 20.75
Zach Pascal WR PHI @ NYG $3,300 $4,900 25.75
Skyy Moore WR KC @ DEN $3,200 $5,100 26.25
David Bell WR CLE @ CIN $3,100 $4,900 20.75
Phillip Dorsett WR HOU @ DAL $3,000 $4,900 13.75
Travis Kelce TE KC @ DEN $7,600 $8,000 26.25
T.J. Hockenson TE MIN @ DET $5,100 $6,500 25.25
Dalton Schultz TE DAL vs HOU $4,400 $6,200 30.75
Greg Dulcich TE DEN vs KC $3,400 $5,400 17.25
Noah Fant TE SEA vs CAR $3,100 $5,200 23.75
Cowboys DST DAL vs HOU $3,800 $5,200 13.75
Eagles DST PHI @ NYG $3,700 $4,700 18.75
Steelers DST PIT vs BAL $2,800 $3,800 17.75
Browns DST CLE @ CIN $2,600 $3,300 25.75
Panthers DST CAR @ SEA $2,200 $3,600 23.75

 

WATCH: Week 14 Cover 5 Show

 

 

Tags: A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb See More

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

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