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Week 13 DVOA Dispatch: Take Advantage of Jaguars vs. Porous Lions’ Defense

Week 13 DVOA Dispatch: Take Advantage of Jaguars vs. Porous Lions' Defense

Our DVOA-adjusted pass and run game rankings are back for Week 13!

We are entering the home stretch of the season, now three quarters over. Maintain focus.

Last week, the Dispatch did well at identifying great games from Tee Higgins, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, Miles Sanders, and Jalen Hurts. Let’s keep the momentum going.

Passing Game Targets

Kansas City Chiefs

After their hiccup of a game against the pitiful Rams, expect Patrick Mahomes and crew to bounce back in an expected shootout with the hot Bengals. JuJu Smith-Schuster plays the most slot of any healthy Chiefs’ WR, and that is where the Bengals are the weakest (28th). I always trust Travis Kelce, even though the Bengals are ranked well against tight ends (eighth).

Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders are terrible against slot WRs (32nd), so this is Keenan Allen’s big spot. While Las Vegas is third against RBs, Austin Ekeler is so involved in the passing game that it may not matter. Considering that the Raiders are 31st in sack rate and 30th in interception rate, while allowing the fourth-most net yards per pass attempt, Justin Herbert can be trusted.

Miami Dolphins

I’m not so sure about betting against the 49ers’ defense. Yet here we are. San Francisco is only 25th vs. slot WRs, and 19th vs. other WRs. Dial in Tua, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, especially if you think this could be a track meet.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals face Kansas City in the aforementioned hopeful shootout. They can be beat through the air, ranking 30th vs. slot WRs and 15th vs. other WRs. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and the returning Ja’Marr Chase are all in play.

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff will hone in on Amon-Ra St. Brown for this one (as usual) due to the matchup. Jacksonville ranks 24th vs. slot WRs. They also rank 30th against TEs, so you could roll the dice on James Mitchell or Brock Wright.

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown revenge game? You can count on it. Tennessee is 29th vs. non-slot WRs, while Brown spends 66.3% of his snaps out wide. The Titans refused to “pay the man” and paid the price. With the Titans’ defense ranked first vs. the run, this could be the rare and exotic pass-first Eagles’ offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Lions are 30th vs. WRs, 30th vs. the run, and 32nd in points allowed. So play your Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, and Zay Jones are great options this week.

Passing game fades: Bears, Colts, Titans

Rushing Game Targets

Chicago Bears

With Justin Fields out, the Bears will want to keep the ball on the ground with their backs and control clock. Green Bay is an excellent opponent to establish the run on, ranking 31st.

Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb plays the Texans’ defense, ranked 26th vs. the run. Hopefully he is the story and not their new starting QB.

Baltimore Ravens

Denver is a decent 11th vs. the run, but Lamar Jackson is a shifty speedster. Due to the low-scoring nature of Broncos games, I will lay off of including many (if any) players from this game.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Chargers’ defense will be the next tasty treat for Josh Jacobs, ranking 27th against the run. He really has been a league-winner after a weird offseason.

Green Bay Packers

A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones are parasitic toward each other, so tread carefully. They do have a nice matchup against a Bears’ defense ranked 22nd against the rush. And the game flow could be run-heavy if the Packers can build a lead.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, the Jags appear on both lists. The Lions’ defense has not been good. Travis Etienne was hurting, so be sure to check the injury report. But if he is a go, Detroit is easy fodder at 30th vs. the run.

Run game fades: Dolphins, Broncos, Patriots

(Stats courtesy of Football Outsiders and Trumedia Networks)

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