Fantasy
11/19/22
9 min read
Week 11 Main Slate Cash Games
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen- (DraftKings: $8,500 / FanDuel: $9,200)
A day ago, Josh Allen was completely off my radar, as I thought he was going to have to throw the ball through several feet of snow. Now that the game has been moved to Detroit in a dome, my interest is once again peaked. The turnovers from Allen have to stop. I don’t want to see year two Allen out there. I think after last week's brutal overtime loss that Allen has to have learned to stop playing so recklessly.
This week he shouldn’t find himself making those quick bad decisions with Cleveland's pass rush ranking just 26th in pressure rate. Giving Allen time to throw has proven to be lethal to his opposition. While the Browns aren’t getting much pressure on quarterbacks, they also aren’t doing well in the secondary as they rank 31st in DVOA against the pass. We’re talking about Josh Allen here, people. How much convincing do you really need? He is always in consideration for cash and the matchup isn’t going to hold him back. Fire him up.
Justin Fields - (DraftKings: $7,600 / FanDuel: $8,700)
Justin Fields has been playing absolutely out of his mind over the last few weeks. He’s playing like the best rushing quarterback in the league and he gets another cupcake matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who are just as easily beaten on the ground as they are through the air. Fields is just at the tip of the iceberg here with his potential. He doesn’t have the pass catchers to showcase his arm talent, but he is getting it done on the ground.
He reminds me a lot of Jalen Hurts for fantasy. Even if he wasn’t doing enough through the air, it just didn’t simply matter for fantasy because he’d make up for it on the ground. His floor at this point in the season feels relatively safe and it’s hard not to play the man who has finished as the QB1 over the last 2 weeks. Additionally, Fields has no less than QB5 over the last month, especially when this game is surprisingly sitting with the highest over/under on the slate. If Fields blows it up and finishes as a top 3 QB this week, then this will be the last time you ever get him below 8k.
Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott - (DraftKings: $6,600 / FanDuel: $7,500)
Deep Sleeper: Daniel Jones - (DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel: $7,800)
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley - (DraftKings: $8,900 / FanDuel: $9,700)
I'm running out of words to describe just how good Saquon Barkley has been playing. He’s about as safe as they come for a running back in cash games. With a matchup this good, you don’t even have to question it: it’s wheels up. He’s going against the Detroit Lions who have been obliterated on the ground several times this season. Play Barkley if you want a safe play despite the high price tag. He is going to pay off; he always does.
Jonathan Taylor - (DraftKings: $7,800 / FanDuel: $8,700)
The king has returned. Jonathan Taylor has primarily been a large disappointment as a first-overall fantasy pick due to high ankle sprains knocking out most of his season. Since the trade of Nyheim Hines, Taylor has moved back to an absolutely dominant role, playing 94% of the snaps in Week 10 with a 91% route participation. We can’t forget just how good Taylor is; he’s only one year removed from leading the league in rushing yards. If he’s getting the work and getting healthier, it's lethal to get him at a discounted price range.
This week, Taylor is facing the Philadelphia Eagles who are abysmal in their run defense. The blueprint on how you attack this Eagles team was essentially laid out last week when the Washington Commanders running backs combined for 40 carries. I would wager a guess that Jeff Saturday puts the game into Taylor's hands far more than Matt Ryan after watching that Monday night game. Taylor should be in for a heavy workload and a good fantasy week.
Honorable Mention: Rhamondre Stevenson - (DraftKings: $6,700 / FanDuel: $8,100)
Deep Sleeper: Devin Singletary - (DraftKings: $5,800 / FanDuel: $6,400)
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb - (DraftKings: $7,500 / FanDuel: $8,100)
If you tuned into Sirius XM NFL radio Friday morning with Mike Tannenbaum and Jade McCarthy, then you heard me speak glowingly of CeeDee Lamb and how I believe he is in a smash spot against the Minnesota Vikings. I think this becomes a game where Dallas and Minnesota go back and forth all game long. I really like the game environment here and the advantage Lamb has playing in the slot against Minnesota's defense. Ever since Michael Gallup has come back into the fold for Dallas, Lamb has been running his routes at around 77% primarily out of the slot. Lamb also has the second-best target share in the NFL.
When we combine his route participation in the slot with his high volume target share going up against the Vikings defense. Vikings defense has managed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers, thereby we get a match made in fantasy heaven. The Vikings secondary just isn’t intimidating and its a weak spot for them that should be exploited in this matchup. They also give up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and the second-most receiving yards and receptions per game over the last month as well. Look for Justin Jefferson and Lamb to exchange blows back and forth on Sunday.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - (DraftKings: $7,200 / FanDuel: $7,800)
There were plenty of options in this slate to choose from, but I finally landed on the "Sun God" to be my top suggestion going up against the New York Giants. He’s not particularly cheap nor is he probably all that enticing compared to some other options on this slate. However, when he’s healthy he sees a ton of volume. This is excellent news, being the top receiver on a team with a really bad defense. We can expect him to go off on any given Sunday. Some people may not love the matchup against the Giants, but The 33rd Team’s own, Jordan Vanek, explains why we should in this tweet:
The Giants play a ton of Cover 0/1 and blitz at a high rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown against Cover 0/1:
35% target share (13th in TGT Share)
40.8% target per route run (1st in TPRR)
3.3 yards per route run (8th amongst those with 45 RR)Run it back with sun god this week 🙂
— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) November 16, 2022
He’s also someone who gets a ton of volume and opportunities but he has been a bit unlucky in the touchdown department. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2 and I love to look for moments like these for some positive touchdown regression to hit for someone who sees a ton of volume. We saw some examples of this hit big time for guys like Joe Mixon and Justin Jefferson who were getting so much opportunity, but were just unlucky in the touchdown department. I love him as a bring back if I have Barkley in my lineups this week.
Honorable Mention: DeVonta Smith - (DraftKings: $6,200 / FanDuel: $6,400)
Deep Sleeper: Garrett Wilson - (DraftKings: $4,900 / FanDuel: $6,200)
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson - (DraftKings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $6,500)
The tight end slate this week is pretty bleak with a hobbled Mark Andrews and no Travis Kelce or Dallas Goedert to carry the slate. I like T.J. Hockenson and his involvement in this Vikings offense since being traded from Detroit. I think this matchup is underrated and should provide a much-needed fantasy spark on the slate. In these last two games since joining the team, Hockenson has a 21.3% target share and is really only competing with arguably the best wide receiver in the game, Justin Jefferson, for targets.
I understand that this particular matchup isn’t great for tight ends in specific. The Dallas defense has limited that position on the field but Hockenson might break the mold with his usage. You can also argue that Hockensen’s last two matchups weren’t ideal for the tight end position either. Do what you will with that information, but we know that sometimes matchups just don’t matter and talent along with opportunity will outweigh those problems. I like him a lot this week as the Vikings try to keep pace with Dallas.
Dalton Schultz - (DraftKings: $4,300 / FanDuel: $5,900)
Schultz became fantasy relevant the second Dak Prescott stepped back onto the field. Outside of CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys backfield, there really is no one else challenging for targets other than Dalton Schultz. Schultz is looking at a 21.7% target share since Dak came back in the lineup and he’s also in a position similar to Hockenson. They are playing second fiddle to the star receiver and it benefits them immensely. If this game becomes high scoring and competitive like I expect it to be, then these are the kind of players who are going to get us there in DFS.
I was big on Schultz entering this season before his injury and he’s looking much healthier and seeing an increase in snaps every week. It’s time we start to take him more seriously for fantasy purposes again as Dak’s second favorite target. The matchup is also pretty sweet here for Schultz on Sunday. The Vikings are only allowing the tenth most touchdowns to tight ends and Schultz has a 40% end zone target share with Dak in the lineup. I like him to score this week.
Honorable Mention: Cole Kmet - (DraftKings: $4,100 / FanDuel: $5,700)
Deep Sleeper: Greg Dulcich - (DraftKings: $3,800 / FanDuel: $5,500)
D/ST
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts - (DraftKings: $3,900 / FanDuel: $4,800)
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets - (DraftKings: $3,700 / FanDuel: $5,000)
Honorable Mention: New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams - (DraftKings: $4,100 / FanDuel: $4,000)
Deep Sleeper: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals - (DraftKings: $2,300 / FanDuel: $3,800)
WATCH MORE: T.J. Hockenson Is Proof That Deadline Players Can Be Integrated Quickly
