Analysis
11/9/22
5 min read
Week 10 Thursday Night Showdown Falcons vs. Panthers
These two teams played just two weeks ago, and we saw a lot of offense between them. The total is sitting at 43.5 on the short week, and in the last matchup, these teams combined for 71 points. The last game was also in a dome; this will be outside. This game isn’t very exciting, but it makes for the best showdown slates.
Vegas Line: Falcons -2.5
Over Under: 43.5
Notable Injuries:
Atlanta Falcons: Out: LG Matt Hennessy, CB Casey Hayward, CB A.J. Terrell.
Carolina Panthers: Out: C Pat Elflein, S Jeremy Chinn. Questionable: RT Taylor Moton, DT Matt Ioannidis.
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Falcons Offense vs. Panthers Defense
- Marcus Mariota averages 7.8 yards per attempt, 10.6 air yards per attempt, and a 4.9% pass touchdown rate.
- Mariota doesn’t attempt a ton of passes, but Arthur Smith is trying to push it downfield when he does because of what the running game is opening up.
- The Panthers played zone on 78.8% and blitzed on 54.8% of Mariota’s dropbacks in the first matchup.
- Against zone coverage, Drake London has a 29.5% target share, and Kyle Pitts has a 23.9% target share.
- Both players are getting targeted on 27% of their routes vs. zone coverage.
- Since Week 4, London has averaged 5.2 targets, 2.8 receptions, and just 25.8 receiving yards.
- Last week, London had five red zone targets; three were in the end zone.
- Pitts has had one game of over 30 receiving yards since Week 4.
- Olamide Zaccheaus will also see plenty of snaps, and Damiere Byrd will rotate with the group.
- Not a single player on the Falcons has run over 30 routes in a game this year.
- The Falcons' run game features four players that will see rushing attempts: Mariota, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley.
- Patterson will be the lead back and averages 5.4 yards per carry.
- Allgeier will be the second player in line for rushing attempts and averages 4.5 yards per carry.
- Huntley will be the third runningback to see touches, and how this offense operates is playable.
- The Panthers give up 4.8 yards per carry; since Matt Rhule was fired, that number is 5.2.
Panthers Offense vs. Falcons Defense
- P.J. Walker is starting after being benched last weekend after registering just nine yards passing on ten attempts at halftime.
- Walker averages 6.9 yards per attempt, 8.6 air yards per attempt, and a 3.3% pass touchdown rate.
- The Falcons played zone coverage at a 72.9% rate and blitzed on 13.2% of dropbacks in the first matchup.
- The Falcons have allowed the fourth most yards per attempt this season.
- Without A.J. Terrell, they will not have an answer for DJ Moore.
- Since Week 7, Moore has had a 31% target share and 53% air yard share.
- Terrace Marshall has been in a full-time role since Week 7.
- Marshall has averaged 2.3 yards per route run and a 21% target share during this time.
- Shi Smith dominates the slot snaps but hasn’t been utilized from that spot.
- Tommy Tremble has taken over as the lead tight end in the offense and has gotten a 10% target share.
- The Falcons are giving up 4.3 yards per carry on the season, but the Panthers averaged over 4.8 yards per carry in their first matchup.
- D’Onta Foreman was the main reason for this, having 26 carries for 118 yards and three touchdowns.
- Chuba Hubbard has been sidelined with an ankle injury, and if he can go, then I expect it to be a timeshare between him and Foreman.
- If he cannot play, the backup role will be between Raheem Blackshear and Spencer Brown.
- Blackshear showed some ability in the passing game last weekend and, in a negative game script, could see snaps.
Overall Thoughts
The Falcons are going to run the ball plenty in this matchup, and it will come from a variety of different players. Playing multiple running backs from Atlanta’s offense will be a good strategy to look into and one that will help you get unique in showdown contests. Kyle Pitts dominated the first matchup against the Carolina Panthers, but Drake London has the better game and makes up for his fumble in the red zone last weekend. Also, the Falcons have not been a great defense but have forced six turnovers in the last three weeks.
The Panthers played one of the worst possible games last weekend, and PJ Walker was benched for how poorly he played. He got named the starter this week, but it is a risky play because if it doesn’t go well, it should be expected that he will be benched. DJ Moore will be the primary option on this offense, with Terrace Marshall being next in line for work of the receiving game. Monitoring if Chuba Hubbard will be active is the key to seeing how much of a workload D’Onta Foreman will have. This defense will likely respond to their performance last weekend, which resulted in two positional coaches getting fired. Still, the limited passing volume from the Falcons does not help the opportunity for points.Â
Multiplier Pool
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson
- QB Marcus Mariota
- WR DJ Moore
- WR Terrace Marshall
- WR Drake London
FLEX Pool
- RB D’Onta Forman
- TE Kyle Pitts
- RB Tyler Allgeier
- RB Chuba Hubbard
- DST Falcons
- RB Raheem Blackshear
- RB Caleb Huntley
- K Younghoe Koo
- K Eddy Pineiro
- DST Panthers
- WR Shi Smith
- TE Tommy Tremble
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