Analysis
11/12/22
11 min read
Week 10 DFS Main Slate Tournament Games
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage and Lineup Construction.
Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
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Double Stacks
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Stack: QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and TE Travis Kelce
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Runback: WR Christian Kirk
The Jaguars average giving up 7.1 yards per attempt and 1.3 pass touchdowns per game. These numbers are a little skewed to the competition they played and the circumstances of when they played them. For example, against the Eagles, it was a pretty severe rainstorm, and they turned to their run game with Miles Sanders and against Justin Herbert, who had just hurt his ribs and, has not been a good quarterback against zone coverage.
Mahomes has been phenomenal against zone coverage this season because he has grown used to the coverage and has learned to take what the defense gives him. The teams can hold Mahomes to low point totals by getting pressure with four rushers and play sticky-man coverage with these wide receivers. The EDGE shows the Jaguars have not played much man coverage and, in zone coverage, have struggled to defend four specific routes: Crossers, Corners, Posts and Flys.
The two most successful players for the Chiefs on those routes have been Valdes-Scantling and Kelce. I believe WR Kadarius Toney wasn’t brought into Valdes-Scantling's role but instead took away from WR Mecole Hardman, who did show up on the injury report. When stacking Mahomes, you must get to two players, and his pass-catching group can be very difficult to predict, but I like the matchup for Valdes-Scantling and Kelce.
Running it back on the Jaguars leads you to two players: Travis Etienne or Kirk. Etienne has run for over 100 yards in three straight games, has elite-level explosiveness, and can catch the ball out of the backfield. The difficulty is with his price and fitting in a great lineup with him as the runback. Kirk has had seven or more targets in three straight games, and the Chiefs have struggled against the slot this year. This game will be popular, so I recommend finding unique plays to fill the rest of the lineup.
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Stack: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy and TE Greg Dulcich
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Runback: RB Derrick Henry
The Titans are without Jeffery Simmons, Bud Dupree, Zach Cunningham and Amani Hooker. These impact players on their defense; without them, they can struggle to get pressure on the quarterback. The Titans have allowed more than 700 yards on 20+ yard passes, which is the most in the NFL. Wilson has the second most yards passing on these types of throws. This game will not be popular, and even when paying for the most premium players, you are still $5,500 cheaper than a Mahomes, Smith-Schuster, Kelce or Etienne game stack.
I want Broncos QB Russell Wilson to see man coverage, and against man coverage, Jeudy and Dulcich have been deadly. Jeudy averages 4.1 yards per route run, and Dulcich averages 2.9 yards per route run against man coverage. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton has been difficult to watch recently but is another viable option in the passing game.
Running it back in this game is extremely easy with Henry. Everybody knows the game plan is to stop Henry, but that has also been the game plan for every other team in the NFL. This year, Etienne and Raiders RB Josh Jacobs found success against Denver's defense, and Jets RB Breece Hall was on his way to one prior to the injury.
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Stack: QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Amari Cooper and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones
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Runback: WR Tyreek Hill
I did not imagine myself writing up a Brissett stack, but everything from a stats side points this to be a favorable matchup for him. The game total is amongst the highest on the slate. The Dolphins' defense has been stellar in the run game, and the coverages they play are ones Brissett has put up good numbers against. For example, the Dolphins blitz at one of the highest rates, and Brissett ranks in the top five in yards per attempt against the blitz.
The Dolphins also run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Against man blitzes, Brissett averages 8.5 yards per attempt. In man coverage, there are two primary options: Cooper and Peoples-Jones. Cooper averages 2.6 yards per route run, and Peoples-Jones averages 2.1 yards per route run against man coverage. TE David Njoku is the only player with over ten targets against man coverage, and he will not be active on Sunday.
For the runback option, it will be Hill. He is on pace for more than 2,000 yards receiving this year and is averaging more than three yards per route run against the Browns' primary coverages. Jaylen Waddle will still be a good play, but Hill has shown he can outrun these zone coverages. The Browns went more zone-heavy against the Bengals, and that should be expected in the matchup against Miami. Against zone coverage, Hill averages 3.9 yards per route and gets targeted on 31.1% of the routes run.
Single Stacks
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Stack: QB Justin Fields & WR Chase Claypool
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Runback: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fields was a great double stack last weekend, but I will be looking to pair him with just one pass catcher and hope he continues his dominance on the ground. The Lions have tried numerous different schemes this season but have gone back to more of a man-heavy scheme after firing their defensive backs coach. When you play man against a running quarterback, you leave yourself susceptible to the big play off of scrambles. I also anticipate Fields being a big factor in the run game this week.
Claypool is my favorite option in the passing game because they want to get him the ball and show off his talents. On 35% of the snaps this past weekend, he saw six targets and one rushing attempt. The Lions have struggled with bigger-bodied wide receivers and have been more capable of defending the savvy route runners.
The Bears have played numerous schemes this season but have given up more than 10 yards per attempt to teams targeting slot wide receivers. St. Brown hasn’t been as productive as he was to begin the year but has seen two straight games with nine targets and more than 90% of the snaps. The other player to pay attention to is RB D’Andre Swift, who is off the injury report, and could also see an uptick in usage this weekend.
Mini-Stacks
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NO @ PIT
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WR Chris Olave & WR Diontae Johnson
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This game between the Saints and Steelers has some shootout potential. But the Saints' OL is injured, and I am not sure what to think of the Steelers' offense. So I will be sticking to a mini-stack and going to the wide receivers. The explosive games from Bills WR Gabe Davis and Eagles WR A.J. Brown were caused by one specific route, and that was a vertical (9) route.
Olave has been the Saints' go-to wide receiver on nine routes this season. The Steelers have given up the most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, and Olave leads the team in red zone targets, end zone targets and yards per route run against each coverage.
The Steelers moved on from Claypool, leaving a condensed target share for Johnson, TE Pat Freiermuth and WR George Pickens. All of these players are viable options and will have their chances at finding the end zone. The Saints will be running a lot of cover-two, cover-two man and cover-four coverage. Against these coverages, I lean toward Johnson because of the NFL experience he has had in seeing these coverages. I would rather play Pickens when he gets more man coverage and has to focus on beating the man in front of him.
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MIN @ BUF
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RB Dalvin Cook & D/ST Vikings
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The Bills will not be the same offense if QB Josh Allen (UCL injury) doesn't play and will put their defense into much worse spots. Cook has six targets in the last two games and averaged more than five yards a carry in three of the last four games. The Bills have given up 5.9 yards per carry in the last two games and allowed Aaron Jones over 140 yards rushing. Cook is a perfect pivot play-off top-tier running backs and pairs well with the Vikings D/ST.
One-Offs
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RB Saquon Barkley
The Houston Texans have allowed four running backs to rush for more than 140 yards in a game this season. They are the only team in the NFL that allows over 30 points per game to RBs on FanDuel and DraftKings. Off the bye week, this will be a smash spot for Barkley, who averages 20 rushing attempts and four targets a game.
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WR CeeDee Lamb
The two primary coverages the Packers run are cover three and cover four Lamb gets targeted on 32% of his routes run against these coverages. Of WRs that have had more than 80 snaps against it, Lamb ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per route run. The Packers are without key players on the defensive side of the ball, and the Cowboys will have many ways to take advantage of this.
Week 10 DFS Main Slate Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | OPP | Vegas | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | vs. JAC | 29.75 | $7,900 | $8,500 |
| Justin Fields | QB | CHI | vs. DET | 25.75 | $6,500 | $8,300 |
| Russell Wilson | QB | DEN | @ TEN | 18.25 | $5,900 | $6,900 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAC | @ KC | 20.75 | $5,400 | $7,000 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | vs. HOU | 23.25 | $8,600 | $9,500 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | vs. DEN | 20.25 | $8,300 | $9,400 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | @ BUF | 19.75 | $8,000 | $7,500 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | LV | vs. IND | 22.25 | $7,600 | $8,400 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | @ PIT | 20.75 | $7,400 | $8,600 |
| Travis Etienne | RB | JAC | @ KC | 20.75 | $7,100 | $8,000 |
| A.J. Dillon | RB | GB | vs. DAL | 19.5 | $6,700 | $7,000 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | @ GB | 23.5 | $6,500 | $7,000 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | DET | @ CHI | 22.75 | $6,400 | $6,800 |
| Dameon Pierce | RB | HOU | @ NYG | 18.25 | $6,300 | $7,700 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | vs. CLE | 26.25 | $6,100 | $5,900 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | @ GB | 23.5 | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| David Montgomery | RB | CHI | vs. DET | 25.75 | $6,000 | $6,700 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | DET | @ CHI | 22.75 | $5,900 | $7,400 |
| Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | vs. DET | 25.75 | $5,900 | $5,800 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | BUF | vs. MIN | 22.75 | $5,600 | $5,600 |
| Jeff Wilson | RB | MIA | vs. CLE | 26.25 | $5,500 | $6,500 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | vs. CLE | 26.25 | $9,100 | $9,000 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LV | vs. IND | 22.25 | $8,700 | $8,500 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | vs. CLE | 26.25 | $7,600 | $8,200 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | @ GB | 23.5 | $7,000 | $7,600 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | @ CHI | 22.75 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | @ PIT | 20.75 | $6,800 | $7,500 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | CLE | @ MIA | 23.25 | $6,500 | $7,800 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | GB | vs. DAL | 19.5 | $6,100 | $6,700 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | vs. JAC | 29.75 | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | JAC | @ KC | 20.75 | $5,900 | $6,800 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | vs. NO | 19.75 | $5,800 | $6,600 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | @ TEN | 18.25 | $5,700 | $6,400 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | @ TEN | 18.25 | $5,600 | $6,200 |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | CHI | vs. DET | 25.75 | $5,500 | $6,200 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | @ BUF | 19.75 | $5,400 | $5,900 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | HOU | @ NYG | 18.25 | $5,300 | $6,100 |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | KC | vs. JAC | 29.75 | $5,000 | $5,500 |
| George Pickens | WR | PIT | vs. NO | 19.75 | $5,000 | $5,600 |
| Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | @ GB | 23.5 | $4,900 | $5,700 |
| Chase Claypool | WR | CHI | vs. DET | 25.75 | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | NYG | vs. HOU | 23.25 | $4,700 | $5,600 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | NYG | vs. HOU | 23.25 | $4,600 | $5,800 |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | KC | vs. JAC | 29.75 | $4,500 | $6,000 |
| Zay Jones | WR | JAC | @ KC | 20.75 | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR | CLE | @ MIA | 23.25 | $4,300 | $5,700 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | JAC | @ KC | 20.75 | $4,300 | $5,400 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | LV | vs. IND | 22.25 | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Noah Brown | WR | DAL | @ GB | 23.5 | $4,100 | $5,200 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | KC | vs. JAC | 29.75 | $4,100 | $5,400 |
| Chris Moore | WR | HOU | @ NYG | 18.25 | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Phillip Dorsett | WR | HOU | @ NYG | 18.25 | $3,600 | $5,200 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | vs. JAC | 29.75 | $7,800 | $8,500 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | ARI | @ LAR | 19.75 | $5,200 | $6,300 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | vs. NO | 19.75 | $4,200 | $5,600 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | DAL | @ GB | 23.5 | $3,800 | $5,500 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | vs. DET | 25.75 | $3,400 | $5,300 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | DEN | @ TEN | 18.25 | $3,400 | $5,900 |
| Evan Engram | TE | JAC | @ KC | 20.75 | $3,300 | $4,900 |
| Foster Moreau | TE | LV | vs. IND | 22.25 | $3,200 | $5,200 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | @ PIT | 20.75 | $3,000 | $4,800 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | @ PIT | 20.75 | $6,800 | $7,500 |
| Cowboys | DST | DAL | @ GB | 19.5 | $4,000 | $5,000 |
| Broncos | DST | DEN | @ TEN | 20.25 | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| Steelers | DST | PIT | vs. NO | 20.75 | $2,800 | $3,600 |
| Cardinals | DST | ARI | @ LAR | 20.75 | $2,700 | $4,000 |
| Vikings | DST | MIN | @ BUF | 22.75 | $2,200 | $3,200 |
| Jaguars | DST | JAC | @ KC | 29.75 | $2,100 | $3,000 |
WATCH MORE: How Will the 49ers Offense Perform in DFS?
