Fantasy
10/7/22
14 min read
Try Dallas Goedert in Your Week 5 Main Slate DFS Games
Holy Hockensen Batman! If T.J. wasn’t in your lineup last week then I’d be shocked to hear that you actually cashed out. When a tight end of all positions, puts up 42.9 DK points, it's just absolutely slate-breaking. There’s no beating that. So, if your Week 4 sucked and Hockensen dusted all of your lineups, then don’t be too bummed, it happens! This week I present to you, Dallas Goedert. I’m just kidding. I don’t know that we're going to see a slate-breaker like that again at the position but I am definitely expecting big things from him.
Somebody in this article is going to make you a lot of money. Who am I to hold you back from it with a long, drawn out intro? I’m super-tempted to just wrap this thing up with a “DFS country, let’s ride!” but after that Thursday night performance from Russell Wilson, I will absolutely never use that phrase again. That thing is cursed, it's bad luck, it's “liiiiimited” and you deserve better. We aren’t the showdown slate ladies and gentlemen. This week isn’t going to be won off kickers and defenses, so let’s get the bag like the Christian Kirks of the world.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen - (DraftKings: $8,200 / FanDuel: $9,000)
Yes, the Bills are favored by a ridiculous amount this week (14) but a 30.5 implied team total? Sheesh. How are the Bills going to get up this big? The way that they always do: Through Josh Allen. Are you worried about this game getting so out of hand that they pull their starters? Well if the game is 30-0 going into the fourth quarter then I feel pretty good that it's because Josh Allen was having himself a damn day. If you’re worried about this scenario and don’t want to pay up at the position, then I am also okay with leaning on maybe a Justin Herbert as a spend-up option for a better game environment. We aren’t going to talk about that, though, because I want to talk about Josh Allen as my cash game quarterback of the week.
It seems inevitable that the Buffalo Bills are going to be able to do whatever the hell they want on offense this week. I’m excited to see the air raid that they can put out after going through a gauntlet of difficult matchups over the last couple of weeks. I can’t imagine a world where I don’t suggest Josh Allen for you here in cash. His floor is ultra-safe and he doesn’t give you bad games. The ceiling is top-notch when you have a 30.5 implied team total, so I refuse to miss out on Allen. He will definitely be in a few of my cash game lineups. I especially love stacking him with a cheap option like Isaiah McKenzie who gets the nod as starting slot receiver this week with Jamison Crowder set to go on IR with an ankle injury.
Jalen Hurts - (DraftKings: $8,100 / FanDuel: $8,600)
I consider this game as one of the best game environments of the week. Interchangeably, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray are both great options this week. Kyler is just a little too risky for me, as the Arizona Cardinals offense has been a frustrating one to watch. For those of you who roster Murray, then you know just how scary he is to play. All of his fantasy points come in the fourth quarter of the game after he made you sweat out single-digits for the first three. Jalen Hurts doesn’t hurt you like that.
This matchup excites me because I remember owning these two quarterbacks in a Superflex league two seasons ago and it felt like the 4th of July the way fireworks went off in this one when these two faced off. Kyler threw for 406 yards with three touchdowns while Jalen Hurts in his second ever NFL game as a starter threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Can we expect that same type of production going into 2022? Probably not. So I won’t get ahead of myself. I'll temper expectations from the smorgasbord of fantasy points that ensued two years ago. However, the Arizona Cardinals are giving up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Jalen Hurts is playing at an MVP level.
I’ll be writing off his performance last week in a crappy rain-flooded game. Don’t expect only 25 passing attempts like he did last week; expect upwards of 30 or more. I say it every week, but Jalen's safe rushing floor infused with more passing attempts is just a “Jalen Hurts have a day” post on the NFL's Instagram page waiting to happen. He’s averaging 27.3 DK points per game and the Eagles have the third-highest implied team total along with the highest over/under on the slate. Sounds like a must-start if you ask me.
Honorable Mention: - Tom Brady (DraftKings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $7,800)
Deep Sleeper: - Trevor Lawrence (DraftKings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $7,600)
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook - (DraftKings: $7,300 / FanDuel: $7,300)
Dalvin Cook's season has been off, to say the least. He had only six touchdowns last year and has only one so far this season. He sees the ball a ton so it’s likely that positive touchdown regression is to come. But when? We haven’t seen peak Dalvin Cook since Week 14 of last year, and even in a smash spot against the Detroit Lions he produced a measly 12ish-point fantasy outing. That isn’t slate-breaking material, and on a slate that has some heavy hitters at the running back position, we want to make sure our higher-priced guy hits home runs.
I think his real problem is that he’s kind of been game-scripted out and hasn’t been able to just run clock with a heavy lead. But that changes this week. If you watch any football at all, then you know the Chicago Bears are criminally bad this season. Their offense does not move the ball. Justin Fields hasn’t completed more than 11 passes a game through four weeks. Every game with the Bears involved in it is a slow burn. Over the last two weeks, we watched Dameon Pierce enter his break-out party and Saquon Barkley rush 31 times for 146 yards. He put up 21.2 DK points without even recording a touchdown. The Bears are so easy to exploit, as they give up the most rushing yards per game. It’s not all too often that you’re going to get a guy like Dalvin Cook at $7,300 with his opportunities, matchup, and as a heavy home favorite. Checks all the boxes for me, fire him up!
Leonard Fournette - (DraftKings: $6,900 / FanDuel: $7,800)
This Tampa vs. Atlanta game is one I am going to target everywhere outside of the tight end position. The Atlanta Falcons' defense is giving up 123.6 rushing yards per game and ranks 26th in rushing defense. Up until last week, we saw Leonard Fournette get every last bit of the running back usage on his team. Keep in mind that Tampa had to abandon the run going up against a Kansas City Chiefs' offense that was just firing on all cylinders. Fournette was in the mix with Evans and Godwin doing damage through the air. Despite the poor rushing input, he still managed 18.4 DK points to salvage his day. He isn’t going to see nearly the same level of competition on the other side of the ball this week. He can go back to being the successful high-volume ball carrier we have gotten used to.
For as frustrating as it’s been to watch the Atlanta Falcons' offense struggle moving the ball through the air, they just don't have the weaponry to play the style of football that they want to against the Buccaneers. They have no Kyle Pitts in this game who, despite his lack of fantasy production, is one of their best skill position players along with Cordarrelle Patterson. They aren’t going to be able to run all over Tampa, because their run defense is just too good and Brady has all of his skill players back for this contest. The Bucs are likely to be leading handily this whole game as heavy home favorites. If you want to get different and lean away from Brady and his pass-catchers, then I think Fournette is completely acceptable for cash.
Honorable Mention: - James Robinson (DraftKings: $6,300 / FanDuel: $8,000)
Deep Sleeper: - Jeff Wilson Jr. (DraftKings: $5,500 / FanDuel: $6,500)
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb - (DraftKings: $7,000 / FanDuel: $7,200)
I’m old enough to remember when we were concerned about Lamb’s fantasy production after losing Dak Prescott. Turns out what Lamb needed was Cooper Rush out there to feed him an average of 10 targets a week since taking over under center for the injured Prescott. Now he gets a matchup where he has to keep pace with a Cooper Kupp-led Rams' offense. CeeDee is running away with the targets on this Dallas offense.
Lamb is the only Dallas wide receiver this season to see 8+ targets, and through four weeks he’s garnished a 33.3% target share. What about Michael Gallup? He got a touchdown last week, and he might cut into Lamb's value. Well hey, that makes sense. He’s still pretty fresh off of IR, and three targets for two receptions with 24 yards and a touchdown last week isn’t scaring me off. Neither is the Los Angeles Rams' defense. Jalen Ramsey is the ultimate shutdown corner in the NFL, but the rest of the defense is banged up. He can’t do everything and has struggled at times this season. The Rams shouldn’t scare you against Lamb at all, as they have given up the third-most fantasy points and completions to opposing wide receivers.
Christian Kirk - (DraftKings: $6,600 / FanDuel: $7,600)
We all owe Christian Kirk an apology for securing his bag this offseason and slandering him. He's proving us all wrong so far. Especially all of us here on the cash games, because Kirk has done nothing but give us fruitful fantasy performances on a week-to-week basis this season. This week, he can restore your faith as a set-it-and-forget-it wide receiver in lineups.
Kirk has been a force, scoring nearly 20 DK points every week prior to the monsoon game last week. You have to take advantage of his price this week going up against their division rivals, the Houston Texans. I’ve said it a couple of times here in the article, but this slate isn’t dishing out great games, and I’m trying to find some fantasy points wherever they seem likely. I like this matchup for Kirk where the Jaguars have the fourth-highest implied team total on the Sunday slate. While the Texans have been better at defending the pass but have been poor against the run, Kirk will get still his opportunities. He does every week with his 30.3% target share on the offense, and he already has three touchdowns in four games. If I was a betting woman, which of course I am, I’d be willing to bet that Kirk definitely out-plays his salary, and you’ll be glad you rostered him.
Honorable Mention: - Chris Godwin (DraftKings: $5,900 / FanDuel: $7,000)
Deep Sleeper: - Chris Olave (DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel: $6,900)
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz - (DraftKings: $4,800 / FanDuel: $5,900)
Zach Ertz's revenge game against his old team? Maybe Ertz is here to show them still that he’s not relegated to dust just yet. In fact, he’s been pretty consistent so far in fantasy this season, as he has tallied double digits performances each week. Another thing about Ertz that has me intrigued when selecting my DFS tight end is his usage in the red zone. He has had ten red zone targets within the last four weeks. He’s a touchdown away every game and sees a ton of targets in general, with 31 of them thus far this season. Ertz is heavily involved in this offense, which is important to consider with this game, given that it has the potential to be a shootout. That will, of course, depend on guys like Zach Ertz performing well against his old squad. He’s my surefire pick over on FanDuel.
Dallas Goedert - (DraftKings: $4,700 / FanDuel: $6,100)
Last week, I presented you with T.J. Hockensen. This week I present to you my bold prediction with Dallas Goedert, who I believe is going to break the tight end position against the Arizona Cardinals. There aren't too many great names out there for tight ends this week, with no Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or Kyle Pitts to tempt me in the afternoon slate. Not too many games on this slate appeal as far as high-scoring matchups in general, but this Cardinals-Eagles game has the juice to produce some fine fantasy points.
Any team who has a serviceable tight end going up against the Arizona Cardinals is going to catch my eye, but Goedert stands out above the rest. Not only has the tight end put up double-digit DraftKings points over the last three weeks, but he’s the only tight end in the top 15 in the NFL, and leads in YAC. Coincidently, the Arizona Cardinals have been allowing the most yards after the catch this season. Goedert also has six catches of 20+ yards this season, good enough to be tied for third behind studs Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson. Now, he gets to play the Cardinals, who have given up the second-most catches, second-most yards, and third-most touchdowns to the tight end position. As a result, they are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position. I’m all over lineups that stack Hurts with Goedert this week, and you should be, too.
Honorable Mention: David Njoku - (DraftKings: $4,400 / FanDuel: $5,700)
Deep Sleeper: Logan Thomas - (DraftKings: $3,200 / FanDuel: $5,200)
D/ST
San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers - (DraftKings: $3,800 / FanDuel: $4,400)
Is there a bigger mismatch this week than the 49ers' defense going up against the Carolina Panthers' offense? I’ll bet Nick Bosa is foaming at the mouth for a chance to sack Baker Mayfield in a rivalry that dates back to college. Not to forget to mention the 49ers' defense hasn’t allowed more than 19 points in a game this year. They haven’t allowed anything outside of single digits over the last three weeks. Best of luck to Matt Rhule’s Carolina Panther offense, which hasn't been able to find its footing. The 49ers' defense is an easy set-it-and-forget-it this week in any lineup.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (DraftKings: $3,600 / FanDuel: $4,300)
Outside of the 49ers' DST going up against the Carolina Panthers, it has to be the Vikings against the Bears as the next-best matchup on the slate. The Bears have been giving out turnovers regularly. They allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing DSTs with 16 sacks (tied for second in the NFL), four interceptions, three fumble recoveries, and 64 points against them through four weeks of football. Just last week they got absolutely rolled on by the New York Giants for six sacks and three fumbles. The Bears are falling apart at the seams, and nothing looks to be getting better for them. While the Minnesota Vikings defense may not be world-beaters, they are good enough to plug in and expect a couple of turnovers headed their way at a decent price.
Honorable Mention: Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (DraftKings: $3,200 / FanDuel: $4,900)
Deep Sleeper: Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams - (DraftKings: $2,500 / FanDuel: $4,100)
WATCH MORE: Lions Offense Roaring Leading Up To Patriots Game
