Analysis
11/16/22
7 min read
Titans vs. Packers DFS Thursday Night Showdown
The Tennessee Titans were without most of their defensive starters, Derrick Henry ran for less than 70 yards, and yet they still managed to win by a touchdown against the Broncos last weekend. Ryan Tannehill and Treylon Burks made a return to action and the former connected for two touchdowns with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. On a short week traveling to Green Bay, they will need a bigger game out of King Henry.
The Packers are coming off their most impressive win of the season and may have found a wide receiver that can make plays for Aaron Rodgers. Rookie WR Christian Watson found the end zone three times, which was a much-needed confidence boost. It'll be intriguing to see how the Titans plan on matching up with him after watching what his speed did to the Cowboys' secondary.
When these two teams matched up in 2020, the Green Bay Packers won 40-13 in a snow game, and the coaching staffs are familiar with each other. Matt Lafleur was the offensive coordinator for the Titans under Mike Vrabel in 2018. Vrabel has adapted in a big way since then, and I don't believe we see the same dominance from the Packers.
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Vegas Line: Packers -2.5
Over Under: 41.5
Notable Injuries:
Titans: Out: LT Taylor Lewan, LG Jamarco Jones, C Ben Jones, Edge Harold Landry, Edge Bud Dupree, CB Caleb Farley, S Amani Hooker, K Randy Bullock. Questionable: DL Jefferey Simmons, CB Roger McCreary.
Packers: Out: WR Romeo Doubs, Edge Rashan Gary, LB De’Vondre Campbell, CB Eric Stokes. Questionable: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Allen Lazard, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, RG Jon Runyan, Edge Preston Smith, Edge Kingsley Enagbare, CB Rasul Douglas.
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Titans Offense vs. Packers Defense
- Tannehill averages 7.4 yards per attempt, 7.5 air yards per attempt and a 4.4% pass touchdown rate.
- Green Bay is giving up 6.8 yards per attempt, 6.5 air yards per attempt and a 4.6% pass touchdown rate on the season.
- The Packers tried to play man coverage in the middle of the season, but it wasn't working. So, they switched back to more zone coverage.
- Against zone coverage, Tannehill averages 8.7 yards per attempt, 7.9 air yards per attempt and a 2.6% pass touchdown rate.
- Tannehill looks to target Robert Woods, Burks and the running backs.
- Woods has the highest target share, but he hasn't had more than 40 yards receiving in a game since Week 3.
- Burks returned from injury last week and ranked third on the team in routes run this past weekend.
- Last weekend, Westbrook-Ikhine was the player that performed against zone coverage, having more than 100-yards receiving.
- On the season, Westbrook-Ikinhe was not a go-to for Tannehill but had a significant impact last weekend.
- TE Chigoziem Okonkwo doesn't run many routes but will get in there for a tight end screen and has displayed some great athleticism.
- Austin Hooper is the lead tight end but will need a touchdown to be relevant.
- The Packers have been a middle-tier pass defense against players aligned out wide or in the slot but have been elite against tight ends and running backs.
- As always, the Titans' offense will run through Henry, which is an excellent matchup for him.
- Five of the seven running backs to see 15 or more carries against the Packers ran for more than 4.5 yards per carry.
- Henry averages 22 rushing attempts per game and 4.6 yards per carry.
- The Packers will attempt to load the box against Henry, giving Tannehill the deep shots off of play action.
- RB Dontrell Hilliard will see work in the passing game and will be targeted against this zone coverage.
Packers Offense vs. Titans Defense
- Rodgers averages 6.9 yards per attempt, 7.7 air yards per attempt and a 5.0% pass touchdown rate.
- Rodgers might have found a playmaker in Watson, which will significantly impact those numbers.
- The Titans give up 7.3 yards per attempt, 7.5 air yards per attempt and a 4.4% pass touchdown rate.
- The Titans primarily run zone coverage and rely on four or fewer pass rushers to get pressure.
- Against zone coverage, Rodgers looks for TE Robert Tonyan the most.
- Tonyan is the only player with a more than 25% target per route run rate in zone coverage.
- Watson did all of his work against the Cowboys in man coverage. I am intrigued to see how Vrabel decides to play the Packers.
- WR Allen Lazard gets targeted on 15% of his routes against zone coverage.
- Watson gets targeted on 21% of his routes against zone coverage.
- The routes that have been most effective against Tennessee have been crossers, corners, post and vertical routes.
- Lazard leads the team in these routes and production.
- I believe if Watson hadn't dropped a few passes, he would be the leader in these categories.
- The run game for the Packers showed up against the Cowboys.
- RB Aaron Jones had 138 yards rushing on 24 attempts.
- RB A.J. Dillon had 65 yards rushing on 13 attempts.
- Rodgers wants this running game to be the focus of the offense because, off of a great run game, he can take deep shots.
- Last week he had 20 passing attempts, threw for 224 yards, and three touchdowns.
- The Titans have been one of the best run defenses in the NFL, but this duo is talented enough to make it work.
Titans vs. Packers DFS Overall Thoughts
The Titans vs. Packers game will be played extremely slowly because both teams want to run the ball and take deep shots off-play action. Dillon had 124 yards rushing in the last matchup, and Jones had 94 rushing yards. Henry also finished with more than 90 yards rushing. So, be open-minded in picking multiple running backs. Whoever runs it most effectively will have the deep play available.
In the passing game, the deep ball will be how these teams attack offensively. We don't see a high reception total out of either team's pass catchers. For the Packers, I believe the attention to Watson will allow Lazard to be the main guy in this specific matchup. I also love every bit of what I have seen out of the data side for Tonyan. As for the Titans, I believe it'll be Burks getting the most deep-ball targets. Burks has had over 60% of his routes be deep routes, and I love the talent he displays in those scenarios.
The Packers cut Amari Rodgers and activated Randall Cobb for tonight's game. At the price of $200 on DraftKings, it's going to be difficult to avoid playing him in any contest. This is a spot where fading him you will get leverage on the field.
Titans vs. Packers DFS Multiplier Pool
- RB Derrick Henry
- RB Aaron Jones
- WR Allen Lazard
- WR Christian Watson
- RB A.J. Dillon
- WR Treylon Burks
Titans vs. Packer DFS FLEX Pool
- QB Aaron Rodgers
- QB Ryan Tannehill
- WR Robert Woods
- TE Robert Tonyan
- D/ST Titans
- K Josh Lambo
- K Mason Crosby
- D/ST Packers
- RB Dontrell Hilliard
- TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
- TE Josiah Deguara
- WR Randall Cobb
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