Analysis

11/28/22

5 min read

Steelers vs. Colts DFS Monday Night Showdown

By Jordan Vanek

Steelers vs. Colts DFS Jonathan Taylor

The Pittsburgh Steelers had their highest-scoring affair last weekend against the Bengals, primarily due to the defense creating turnovers and the offense limiting turnovers. Mike Tomlin is 7-1 against the Colts and has three victories of 17 or more points. 

The Indianapolis Colts are showing a fight under Jeff Saturday, and there is a clear identity with this team. Saturday wants to get the ball to Jonathan Taylor and get the ball out quickly in the passing game for Matt Ryan. 

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Vegas Line: Colts -3

Over Under: 39.5

Notable Injuries:

Steelers:

IR: K Chris Boswell, CB William Jackson III, SS Karl Joesph

OUT: RB Jaylen Warren, CB Ahkello Witherspoon

QUESTIONABLE: WR Miles Boykin, LB Robert Spillane

Colts:

IR: LB Shaquille Leonard, DE Tyquan Lewis, FS Armani Watts

QUESTIONABLE: DT DeForest Buckner, TE Kylen Granson, OLB Yannick Ngakooue, DL Kwity Paye

Data to Know Provided by TruMedia

Steelers Offense vs. Colts Defense

  • Kenny Pickett averages 6.0 yards per attempt, 7.5 air yards per attempt and a 1.3% pass touchdown rate.
  • The Colts play zone coverage more than 80% of the time in most games.
  • Against zone coverage, Pickett averages 5.9 yards per attempt, 6.6 air yards per attempt and has not thrown a touchdown.
  • The Colts do not blitz much either, as they have had only three games where they blitzed more than 20% of the time.
  • Pickett, against four or fewer rushers, averages 5.7 yards per attempt, 7.8 air yards per attempt and has yet to throw a touchdown.
  • Pickett’s numbers tell me he is pushing the ball down the field but not completing many passes.
  • Against zone coverage, Diontae Johnson leads the team in target share, but Pat Freiermuth averages more yards per route run and gets targeted at a higher rate per route.
  • George Pickens has not been an effective player against zone this season and does not get targeted as often as the other two players.
  • Steven Sims ran 41% of the routes last weekend and is the only other wide receiver of note.
  • The Colts have only allowed two wide receivers to record more than 100 yards this season: Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin.
  • Najee Harris will see the full workload. He ran more than 80% of the routes for the first time this season last week.
  • Harris will be targeted plenty as the main check-down option, and the Colts have given up the fifth most receptions to running backs this season.
  • The rushing attempts will be there, but the Colts are one of the better run defenses, and Harris is an inefficient runner.

Colts Offense vs. Steelers Defense

  • Ryan averages 6.9 yards per attempt, 6.0 air yards per attempt and a 1.5% pass touchdown rate.
  • The Steelers mix up their coverages and blitz rate on a weekly basis.
  • The Steelers blitzed and mostly played man against Joe Burrow, but against Tom Brady, they mostly played zone and didn’t blitz.
  • The Colts have three main wide receivers: Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce.
  • The Steelers' secondary has struggled dramatically against wide receivers this season.
  • Pittman is the main WR and has an advantage against the Steelers' secondary.
  • I don’t believe Ryan will have the needed time for Pierce to create big plays, and his usage will depend on that.
  • Campbell will have a significant target share in the slot and be a way for Ryan to get the ball out quickly.
  • The main focus of the offense will be Taylor, and the Steelers have been inconsistent against the run.
  • The Steelers have allowed 4.0 yards per carry on the season.
  • But since T.J. Watt has returned, they’ve given up 2.3 yards per carry.
  • Taylor averages 4.6 yards per carry on the season and 5.3 yards per carry since Saturday took over.
  • Taylor has been the main back out of the backfield as well, and when the Steelers have been beaten by running backs, it has a lot to do with receiving work.

Overall Thoughts

This 39.5-point total was set for a good reason. These defenses have the advantage against each other. Saturday will utilize Taylor and Pittman as much as possible in this game. The Steelers will spread the ball with Johnson, Pickens, Freiermuth and Harris. Both defensive lines will have an advantage over the offensive lines. Pickett will make more mistakes than Ryan, leading the Colts to a low-scoring victory.

Steelers vs. Colts DFS Multiplier Pool

  • RB Jonathan Taylor
  • WR Michael Pittman Jr.
  • RB Najee Harris
  • TE Pat Freiermuth

Steelers vs. Colts DFS FLEX Pool

WATCH MORE: Week 12 Fantasy Football Recap

 

Tags: Alec Pierce, Chase McLaughlin, Daily Fantasy See More

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

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