Welcome back to the NFL High Stakes article!
This week we have a 10-game slate with tons of hidden value across the board. However, the only game with a total of over 47 points is the divisional showdown between the Vikings and Lions (51.5 O/U). Right off the bat, this game looks like the one to stack, but there are other spots we can get some leverage from.
Every week I evaluate all the games and I’ll find one or two games that I think have low-key shootout potential. Whether I’m stacking those games or just one-offing certain players, it’s a great way to separate yourself from the field. If you’re a tournament player like me, you play for first place. To finish at the top you need to be just a little different than the players you’re going up against.
Speaking of tournaments, next week I’ll be in New Orleans for the Fantasy Football World Championship! I’m looking to pick up some steam this week heading into the biggest fantasy football tournament of the year.
Having a strategy is very important when you’re playing DFS, especially since you’ll be going up against some of the best players in the country. After reading this, you can check out my article “Anatomy of Winning a GPP” to see my strategy for my Milly Maker lineup in Week 3 of last year.
- Tony Pollard $6,700 – Pollard has eclipsed 25+ fantasy points in four of his last five games. This week gets a cake walk matchup against the Texans at home. The Texans have allowed a league-high 2,029 rushing yards this season and the Cowboys, who are favored by 17 points, should be in control for most of the game. Houston also has trouble tackling, as it’s allowing 3.35 yards after contact, which is third-worst in the league. I expect Dallas to run the rock at least 30 times between Zeke and Pollard. However, even if somehow the Texans can keep this game close, Pollard is heavily involved in the passing game, as well. At $6,700, he’ll be pretty chalk, but don’t let that scare you. Let it scare the folks who are willing to fade him.
- Jerry Jeudy $5,400 – It seems a little gross to put any faith in this Denver offense. However, looking at projected ownership I’m seeing all eyes on Greg Dulcich in this matchup against the Chiefs. Jeudy looks like he’ll be somewhere in the 10 percent owned range, so there is some leverage to be had there. The Chiefs have given up a league-high 24 passing touchdowns and only six interceptions. While Russell Wilson has been awful this year, this is a spot where I’m willing to take a chance he can move the ball. Last week, Jeudy only played 37 percent of the snaps in his first game back from injury, but he caught all four of his targets for 65 yards against the Ravens. On Friday he was a full participant in practice, and does not have an injury designation going into Sunday. We know what he’s capable of when you get him the ball in space, so please Russ, just get him the ball!
- Jared Goff $5,600 – The Detroit Lions are coming in hot, winning four of their last five games. In those five games, Goff has seven touchdowns and only one interception. Ben Johnson has this offense clicking on all cylinders, and I don’t see anything changing anytime soon. Like I talked about earlier, this is by far the highest total on the slate. These two teams have allowed the most yards per game, and they’re playing each other in a dome. Goff will probably be the chalkiest QB on the slate, but you don’t need to be different everywhere to win big. I’ll probably be rolling out the full-on game stack here with many options available to us. If you have followed me throughout this season, you already know I’m coming back with T.J. Hockenson in his revenge game. I think you’ll need some pieces here if you want any chance at taking home some big cash on Sunday.
- Derrick Henry $7,900 – Last week the Titans were destroyed by the Eagles and then fired their GM immediately. Thank A.J. Brown for that one. On Sunday they will get a much easier matchup against the Jags, who were just destroyed by the Lions. Henry is at his best when the Titans are in control of the game, as I believe they will be here. I think the three-point spread is a little low, and Tennessee is playing for a playoff spot. I expect them to run Henry 25+ times, and we all know he’s capable of breaking off some big runs when he’s touching the ball that many times. The Jaguars are middle of the pack against the run, but Henry is matchup-proof regardless. Can he bust? Only if Jacksonville comes out hot and takes a two-score lead early on, which I simply cannot see happening. I do see a potential shootout here with the Titans’ secondary being as bad as it is. However, that is even better for Henry, as he’ll have plenty of opportunities to put one or two in the end zone. Christian Kirk is an excellent comeback option at $6,600.
- Travis Kelce $7,600 – With Kelce’s salary as high as it is, I don’t think he’ll have as much ownership on him as we’re used to seeing. The tight end position is gross. Since I’ll be fading the Dulcich $3,400 chalk, this is a perfect opportunity to pounce on Kelce, as he can easily break the slate with a monster performance. Last week, Kelce busted with only four catches for 56 yards and a fumble. However the Chiefs’ receiving core is still banged up, so they’ll be relying on Kelce to come out strong here. The Denver secondary is stout, but they’re also facing one of the best offenses in football. We know what Kansas City is capable of against any defense. We also know what Kelce is capable of on any given Sunday, so do not fear spending up on him just because they’re facing a great secondary. If you don’t want to spend this much to get him, that’s fine. However, you will run the risk of him breaking the slate and crushing your dreams. It’s Kelce or Hockenson for me, this week.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800 – It’s hard not to love Amon-Ra St. Brown every week. He’s becoming a star before our very eyes. St Brown’s price has finally crept up to the 8k range. I’m hoping this will hold some people back from picking him this week, but I doubt it. This game is going to be a shootout, and Amon-Ra will be the main beneficiary. He’s scored 30.9 and 37.6 fantasy points in his last two outings and has one of the highest floors on the entire slate. While he’s expensive, his QB is not, so pairing them together is ideal. The Lions are playing for their playoff lives, so I’m expecting them to come out strong and to bring out the entire bag of tricks at home in this divisional showdown.
Contrarian Play of the Day
As of now, I’m seeing Foreman’s ownership under 10 percent. Foreman is coming into this game a little banged up and has always been known to be a tough player. Fighting through injuries almost every week. Foreman has run for over a 100 yards in four of his last six games. The two games he didn’t hit 100 yards, the Panthers’ offense was blown out by the Bengals and shut down by the Ravens. This week will be all about if Carolina can hang in this game, and I believe they will. The spread is only three points and the Panthers are coming off a bye.
While they’ll be in a very tough Seattle environment, they should be able to move the ball on the ground against this Seahawks defense. Seattle is allowing 4.93 yards per carry and 3.17 yards after contact, both of which are at fifth-worst in the league. This is not a good combination against a power back who can break tackles and take one all the way. His price tag is very reasonable for a number one running back against a bad run defense. Make sure Foreman is in your lineup this week – you won’t regret it.
Reach out to me via Twitter if you have any questions or just need some advice! @Lordmattyice
Good Luck all!