Analysis
12/5/22
6 min read
Saints vs. Buccaneers DFS Monday Night Showdown
In their first meeting of the season, the Buccaneers beat the Saints in the Superdome. Tampa Bay was shut out in the first half, and they had one offensive touchdown in the game. In his six games against the Saints as a Buccaneer, Tom Brady has thrown for more than 250 yards once and has eight interceptions. The bright side for the Buccaneers is Chris Godwin and Julio Jones will be available for this matchup.
The Saints have won one game on the road this season, and it was Week 1 against the Falcons. Their defense has allowed more than 300 yards in four games and many of those yards have come from the ground. In 2016 with the Bengals, Andy Dalton faced off against a Todd Bowles' defense with the Jets, and he threw for 366 yards while being sacked seven times.
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Vegas Line: Buccaneers -5.5
Over/Under: 40
Notable Injuries
Saints:
IR: WR Michael Thomas, OL Erik McCoy
OUT: TE Juwan Johnson, CB P.J. Williams, DE Payton Turner
QUESTIONABLE: CB Marshon Lattimore, DT Malcolm Roach, CB Bradley Roby, DT Kentavius Street, LB Pete Werner, WR Kevin White
Buccaneers:
IR: OLB Shaquil Barrett, OL Ryan Jensen
OUT: OL Tristan Wirfs
DOUBTFUL: CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, S Mike Edwards, S Antoine Winfield Jr.
QUESTIONABLE: TE Cameron Brate, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Russell Gage, OL Luke Goedeke, DE Akiem Hicks, DT Vita Vea
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Saints Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
- Dalton averages 7.5 yards per attempt, 7.8 air yards per attempt and a 5.2% pass touchdown rate.
- The Buccaneers run zone at an 80% rate and blitz at one of the highest rates.
- Against Jameis Winston, the Buccaneers ran zone at a 97.7% rate and blitzed on 23.4% of dropbacks.
- Against zone coverage, Dalton averages 7.1 yards per attempt, 7.1 air yards per attempt and a 2.3% pass touchdown rate.
- The Saints' three main wide receivers are Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Jarvis Landry.
- Against zone coverage, Olave has a 22.9% target share and averages 2.4 yards per route run, Shaheed has a 3.1% target share and averages 2.9 yards per route run and Landry has a 9.7% target share and averages 1.73 yards per route run.
- Assuming the Buccaneers' safeties don't play, the deep shots will be there for the Saints.
- Without Juwan Johnson, Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill will take over the tight-end snaps.
- Trautman has averaged 2.6 yards per route run against zone coverage this season.
- Teams target players out wide or in the slot at a high rate against the Buccaneers.
- All three of the Saints' wide receivers can play in the slot.
- Alvin Kamara didn't play in the first matchup.
- Against zone coverage, Kamara gets targets on 30.9% of his routes.
- The Buccaneers' run defense isn't as good as in previous years. They are giving up 4.4 yards per carry.
- Three running backs have run for more than 90 yards against this Buccaneers' defense.
- Mark Ingram is the other running back that will see snaps in the backfield.
Buccaneers Offense vs. Saints Defense
- Brady averages 6.5 yards per attempt, 7.1 air yards per attempt and a 2.9% pass touchdown rate.
- Tristan Wirfs will miss this game and has been the anchor for this offensive line.
- The Saints rank in the top 10 of man coverage usage and blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NFL.
- In their first matchup, the Saints ran man coverage at a 33.3% rate.
- Brady averages 5.9 yards per attempt, 9.6 air yards per attempt and a 4.8% pass touchdown rate.
- Against man coverage, Mike Evans has a 24.5% target share and averages 2.6 yards per route run.
- Marshon Lattimore has gotten the best of Evans, and that's been a struggle with this team.
- Godwin has a 6.4% target share against man coverage and averages 0.7 yards per route run against man.
- Jones has a low target share but averages 3.9 yards per route run.
- Evans and Godwin run more than 90% of the routes, and Jones is over a 60% rate.
- The Saints have been elite against the slot but give up 1.92 yards per route run to out wide receivers.
- Jones and Evans are the two out wide receivers.
- Cameron Brate is the lead tight end at 50% of the routes, and Cade Otton runs less than 40% of the routes.
- The Saints haven't allowed an end zone target to a tight end this year.
- Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White will split this backfield.
- Both running backs will see touches against the Saints, especially without Wirfs.
- White saw snaps before the injury of Fournette in Germany.
- The Saints give up 4.5 yards per carry in the run game but held Fournette to 2.7 yards in their first matchup.
- Only five running backs have scored this year against the Saints' defense, and only one running back has had more than 100 yards.
Overall Thoughts
The Saints' defense has constantly played well against the Buccaneers, and I expect them to do so again. The game will come down to the big plays from Evans and Jones. The injury news on Lattimore will determine who I will be rocking within this one. Without Wirfs, the Buccaneers will lean on the run game, and I wouldn't expect Brady to pass.
I expect Dalton to throw for plenty of yards without the starting safeties of the Buccaneers, and the big play from Olave and Shaheed will be there. Both players will take the top off the defense and can stretch the field with their speed. Landry will be a heavy target for Dalton against zone coverage but hasn't had more than three receptions against the Buccaneers in his last three games.
Multiplier Pool
- WR Mike Evans
- WR Chris Olave
- WR Julio Jones
FLEX Pool
- QB Tom Brady
- RB Alvin Kamara
- QB Andy Dalton
- RB Leonard Fournette
- RB Rachaad White
- QB Taysom Hill
- WR Jarvis Landry
- DST Buccaneers
- RB Mark Ingram
- DST Saints
- K Ryan Succop
- K Will Lutz
- WR Rashid Shaheed
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