Fantasy
10/2/22
6 min read
Rams vs. 49ers Monday Night DFS Showdown
Kyle Shanahan has matched up with Sean McVay 11 times since 2017 and overall is 7-4 against him, Three of the losses coming in his first two seasons as a head coach. McVay has not beaten Shanahan in the regular season since Week 17 in 2018. These teams defensively have held each other in check the last two seasons. Four of the five games have hit or gone under 43 total points. Divisional primetime games a
Vegas Line: 49ers -2.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Notable Injuries:
Rams: C Brian Allen (Out), G David Edwards (Out), DB David Long (Out), DB DeCobie Durant (Out).
49ers: OT Trent Williams (Out), WR Danny Gray (Doubtful), RB Tyrion Davis-Price (Out), TE Ross Dwelley (Questionable), TE Tyler Kroft (Out), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Out), DT Javon Kinlaw (Questionable), DB Tarvarius Moore (Out).
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Rams Offense vs. 49ers Defense
- Matthew Stafford has been underwhelming this season, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, 6.9 air yards per attempt, and a 3.9% touchdown rate to begin the year.
- The offensive line troubles have been the leading cause as he has only been blitzed on 15% of dropbacks but has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks.
- The 49ers' defensive line is star-studded, and they play a similar style to the Buffalo Bills of blitzing at a low rate and playing over 90% zone coverage.
- Against zone coverage, Stafford’s yards per attempt sit at 7.9. But his sack percentage is 9.2%, and he has yet to throw a touchdown.
- The target leaders vs. Zone coverage have been Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Ben Skowronek, Darrell Henderson, and then Allen Robinson.
- The Rams primarily utilize three WR sets, so Skowronek has been on the field for 77% or more routes each season.
- Robinson has been a no-show to begin the year and has only been the go-to against Man Coverage and when teams blitz.
- Kupp will lead this team in targets, with Higbee and Skowronek being the next two in line.
- Cam Akers has been the lead back the last two weeks in the running back room, but he has gotten close to no passing game work.
- Henderson has been the receiving back and will always be in line to take away red zone touches.
49ers Offense vs. Rams Defense
- Outside of Week 1, the Rams defense has performed well against QBs. They held Kyler Murray to 5.4 yards per attempt last week.
- Jimmy Garoppolo missed plenty of throws this past week against the Denver Broncos and will be in trouble without LT Trent Williams.
- Williams allows this team to do many different things in the running game, and he is irreplaceable for this offense.
- Garoppolo so far this season averages 7.3 yards per attempt, 8.3 air yards per attempt, and a 4.0% touchdown rate.
- He will look to continue spreading the ball around as Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel saw the same amount of targets last weekend, with George Kittle being third on the team.
- The Rams are another zone-heavy team. But they blitz at a 37% rate, and if Garoppolo diagnoses the blitz pre-snap, the 49ers will take advantage of it.
- Garapolo against the blitz this season averages 10.4 yards per attempt and a 15.4% TD rate.
- Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have been the two primary players for Garoppolo to begin the season.
- Without Trent Williams, I could see them struggle to protect Garoppolo. But the big shot down the field will be there for Jimmy.
- With Garoppolo at QB and Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle on the field, Kittle leads the team in targets against zone coverage.
- Kittle also leads this group in red zone targets.
- The tricky part about this is whether or not Kittle will be utilized more as a blocker in the absence of Trent Williams.
- Against RBs, the Rams have given up 3.7 yards per carry and have not given up a touchdown to the position.
- For the 49ers, Jeff Wilson will be the primary running back, with Samuel mixing in at the position.
- I don’t have much interest in Wilson because of the loss of Williams and what he was able to do in the running game.
Rams vs. 49ers Multiplier Pool
- Cooper Kupp
- I will be shocked if Kupp gets held to what he was last weekend against the Cardinals, and I expect a bounce-back week.
- Deebo Samuel
- Without Williams, I expect the 49ers to rely heavily on yards after the catch. There isn’t anybody better than Samuel at that.
- Brandon Aiyuk
- We have seen this Rams secondary have some lapses against players running deep. If the 49ers can protect Garoppolo for long enough, Aiyuk will have opportunities.
- George Kittle
- His second game back from injury, and he will be a heavily volatile play. If I play Kittle, it will be as a multiplier because he will not be needed to block as much in the game.
- He has led this trio in targets vs. Zone Coverage and has the most work in the red zone.
- Tyler Higbee
- Higbee is the second pass catcher in this offense. With most of the defense's attention going to Kupp, I expect him to get targeted.
Rams vs. 49ers FLEX Pool
- Matthew Stafford
- Safford will have to take some hits to deliver some of the throws down the field, but I am sure he will do so effectively to Kupp and Higbee.
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- If the offensive line protects against these blitzes, he can deliver the ball down the field.
- Darrell Henderson
- Akers has managed the carries, but I expect Henderson to be the lead back in a negative game script.
- Ben Skowronek
- He’s the WR3 in this offense in these matchups, and I believe he will get ample opportunity in this game.
- 49ers DST
- Bosa will have plenty of opportunity to get after Stafford. This should be a multiple-sack game from just him.
- Robbie Gould
- This game is low scoring, and the defenses will get plenty of sacks, leading to good field goal opportunities. Gould has only missed one kick this season.
- Matt Gay
- This game is low-scoring, and the defenses will get plenty of sacks, leading to good field goal opportunities. Gay has not missed this year.
- Rams DST
- Without Williams, this 49ers offensive line is not productive, and we saw last week what will happen if Garoppolo gets pressured.
- Kyle Juszczyk
- Juszczyk will get plenty of snaps because of his blocking ability. Shanahan also feels comfortable giving him work in the receiving game.
WATCH MORE: Former Pro Bowl QB Matt Cassel breaks down the Monday night battle for NFC West supremacy, Rams vs. 49ers.
