Analysis
12/12/22
7 min read
Patriots vs. Cardinals Monday Night DFS Showdown
This Monday night will feature a matchup between the Patriots and the Cardinals. Here's a breakdown of important stats and information you should know before you set your showdown lineup.
The Patriots have given up more than 300 yards, 20 first downs and forced six punts in their last two games. In the two previous games, the Patriots only allowed 14 first downs total, 224 yards total and forced 19 total punts. Contrary to how it seems, the defense didn't fall apart, they just started playing better teams. This week, they'll have to contend with another talented offense in the Cardinals.
With that said, the Cardinals have lost four of their last five games, and unsurprisingly the only game they won came in their only game during that stretch without a turnover. Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins played together for the first time last weekend, and they combined for 10 of Kyler Murray's 18 completions. Cornerback Byron Murphy is not active, and without him on the field, the Cardinals give up a 71% completion percentage and a 9-1 TD-INT ratio.
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Vegas Line: Dolphins -3.5
Over Under: 53.5
Notable Injuries
Patriots
IR: DL Christian Barmore, OL Marcus Cannon, DT LeBryan Ray, CB Joejuan Williams
OUT: WR Jakobi Meyers, CB Jalen Mills, OT Isaiah Wynn,
DOUBTFUL: RB Damien Harris
QUESTIONABLE: Trent Brown, OL Yodny Cajuste
Cardinals
IR: TE Zach Ertz, OL Marquise Hayed, OG Will Hernandez, C Rodney Hudson, OT D.J. Humphries, DL Rashard Lawrence, OG Justin Pugh, ILB Nick Vigil
OUT: DT Rashaad Coward, WR Rondale Moore, CB Byron Murphy
QUESTIONABLE: DL Zach Allen
Data to Know Provided by Sports Info Solutions
Patriots Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
- Among QBs with 100 snaps, Mac Jones ranks 17th in yards per attempt at 7.3, fifth in completion percentage at 68.1% and 29th in air yards per attempt at 7.2.
- The Cardinals rank 17th in yards allowed per attempt at 7.1 and have allowed the NFL's most passing touchdowns (24).
- Arizona runs a lot of zone coverage and will blitz at a high rate. Their primary coverage is Cover 3.
- Among QBs with 50 snaps against Cover 3, Jones ranks 27th in yards per attempt at 6.9 and has thrown zero touchdowns and two interceptions.
- Against the blitz, Jones ranks 31st in yards per attempt at 6.2 and has a 48.7% completion percentage.
- The only player for the Patriots with more than 10 targets against Cover 3 is Jakobi Meyers (18), and he won't play on Monday.
- The two players with a more than 20% target per route run against Cover 3 are Jonnu Smith and Rhamondre Stevenson.
- Smith has only run around 25% of the routes in the last three weeks.
- New England's main wide receivers are DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Tyquan Thornton.
- When Meyers missed two games earlier in the year, Agholor took over the slot role.
- Thirteen of the 24 passing touchdowns the Cardinals have given up have been to running backs and tight ends.
- The Cardinals have given up 889 yards to tight ends, the next closest team is the Falcons at 757, and they have one extra game.
- Against Cover 3, Parker averages 1.85 yards per route run and gets targeted on 10.4% of his routes. This means he's getting the deep ball against this coverage, but Jones is not throwing it much.
- Without Damien Harris, Stevenson will handle a full workload, with Kevin Harris being his backup.
- Stevenson is second on the team in targets this season and will get targeted plenty against the Cardinals.
- Stevenson averages 4.6 yards per carry this year.
- The Cardinals give up 4.5 yards per carry to running backs.
- Kenneth Walker and Dalvin Cook are the only two running backs to have more than 100 yards rushing against the Cardinals.
Cardinals Offense vs. Patriots Defense
- Among QBs with 100 snaps, Murray ranks 41st in yards per attempt at 6.1, 14th in completion percentage at 68.1% and 40th in air yards per attempt at 6.4.
- The Patriots' season-long numbers aren't something I want to consider because they've played so many bad quarterbacks.
- New England plays a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3.
- Brown and Hopkins have a more than 30% target per route run rate against these coverages.
- Hopkins has yet to score a touchdown or have more than 80 yards receiving against the Patriots.
- Brown has failed to get 50 yards in his two matchups against the Patriots.
- Two wide receivers have had more than 100 yards in a game against the Patriots this season: Allen Lazard and Justin Jefferson.
- Bellichick will always pride himself in taking away some part of your offense, and I believe it will be Brown's speed tonight.
- With Rondale Moore out, it'll be intriguing to see how Greg Dortch gets utilized. He'll likely continue assuming the slot role.
- Brown and Hopkins got a lot of the slot snaps in their first game together, so how much Dortch will play is difficult to determine
- A.J. Green and Robby Anderson will get utilized on the outside and could keep Dortch off the field.
- Brown and Hopkins will have more than 50% of the target share in this game.
- Trey McBride will get most of the routes out of the tight end position but has only been targeted on 9% of his routes and averages 0.38 yards per route run.
- James Conner will be the workhorse running back, and Keaontay Ingram is the backup.
- Murray and Conner will be the two primary ball carriers near the goal line.
- Conner has averaged 3.9 yards per carry this season.
- The Patriots have allowed 3.7 yards per carry to RBs this year.
- Mobile QBs have given the Patriots issues, as Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson had more than 80 rushing yards.
- Aaron Jones is the only running back to have more than 100 yards rushing against the Patriots this year.
Overall Thoughts
Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury hasn't been the most creative coach since entering the league, but his talent on this roster can outweigh not having a great scheme. The targets for Brown and Hopkins will be there, but one is likely to be limited based on Bill Bellichick's propensity for limiting wide receivers. Brown's speed is something you can limit by putting a safety over the top of his side at all times, while Hopkins is more difficult to shut down. The other wide receivers on the Cardinals will need to make one or two plays to keep them honest on how they defend Hopkins and Brown. Conner will be touchdown dependent in the run game, and I don't believe he will have a lot of yards.
New England's offense has not been great this year, and without Meyers, they will likely struggle again. Stevenson will be the focal point of their offense, and if he gets going, the Cardinals will struggle. The tight ends for the Patriots are the intriguing options. I believe Smith will have plays drawn up for him. The Patriots have always attacked other teams' weaknesses, and defending tight ends is a weakness of the Cardinals. Parker and Agholor are the players that will be in line for the big play.
Multiplier Pool
- WR DeAndre Hopkins
- QB Kyler Murray
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson
- TE Hunter Henry
- TE Jonnu Smith
FLEX Pool
- RB James Conner
- QB Mac Jones
- WR Marquise Brown
- WR DeVante Parker
- WR Nelson Agholor
- DST Patriots
- K Nick Folk
- K Matt Prater
- DST Cardinals
- TE Trey McBride
- WR Greg Dortch
- WR Robby Anderson
- RB Kevin Harris
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